nickgrillo
EF5
Potential for severe weather on Friday in the Great Lakes I believe. At least the models think so... 
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8/27/2004 FCST: Great Lakes
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
rdale
EF5
CAPE 5300, LI -11 on the Eta for 21Z Fri... Not bad... However lapse rates and low-level winds a bit weak (where have we heard that one before.)
GFS looks a little faster but still spits out CAPE 2500 LI -7.
- RobJeremy Lemanski
EF3
looks to be very unstable friday, but it also seems to be a day that is lacking in dynamics. There also seems to be a pretty strong cap forecasted that day and we all know what that meansrdale
EF5
Eta has no cap, and cooling 700mb temps during they day - what are you seeing?Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
Read GRR dis. wrong, thought they ment friday, really ment thurs. my bad. Hopefully something goes, kinda takes me back to last aug. 21st when there was a cap that broke with rapid development over eastern lower.rdale
EF5
00Z Eta caps us through 15Z, then allows for explosion in the afternoon with CAPE > 4000, LI < -10, EHI > 6 for Mid-Michigan! Does not develop ANY precip though, even with fropa around 00Z-ish, possibly due to weak lapse rates & convergence?
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, according to my expert analysis (yeah right, LOL)... I would have to say this is correct. I havn't really been following the models the past few days, and was quite surprised when I found this thread (and looked at the 00Z ETA). Looks like a good setup, as Rob said though, there is no precip output on the model. That would lead me to believe at this point, that storms will be the isolated supercell type, with a good chance at tornadoes and damaging winds, but a little iffy on the hail (weak lapse rates), though with strong updrafts and CAPE of 4000J/KG, I wouldn't rule it out at all.
Off to do a full model analysis (havn't fully looked at he data/soundings)...Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
Thats also what i'm worried about, also is it possible the storms from thurs night will move eastern and clouds us over for the morning hours? I tried looking at the ETA storm vect. but it says page can't be found. My guess is they would move ENE or NE away from lower mich.
Time will tell, thursday looks huge west of here.
EDIT: just looked at the new 0z eta sev. wx page and see that it has slightly higher lapse rates then the 12z run, hopefully a trend to contiune. It also has large area of 200-250 3 KM Storm Relative Helicity over lower mich. at 18z. If the rates improve a little more and there is some covergence Watch Out.mikegeukes
EF5
New Day 3 is out, mentions no risk of severe weather
for the Great Lakes, only isolated strong storms may occur..
Parts of Kansas and Missouri has the slight risk.
Mike
nickgrillo
EF5
The SPC must be on drugs today. I still haven't checked the models this morning... did it really change that quick?Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
latest ETA is a little faster with the front and also has alot of convection at 12z friday morning over the western part of the state, more then likely whats left of tomorrow's outbreak across wis, minn, etc. so that could be why they downplay the threat of severe weather for friday.
nickgrillo
EF5
Went from wild to nothing according to the SPC....rdale
EF5
"Went from pretty good to Noda, zitch, zero, nothing. "
???? CAPE 2500, LI -9, lapse rates > 7 C/km, EHI approaching 2, helicity > 100 is far from my definition of nothing... Note SPC does have us in drawn in for Friday - just not as confident (understandably) as they are over the Midwest to go with SLGT.
- Rob
nickgrillo
EF5
It's hard to believe the SPC is not confident for this kind of situation. Huh? CAPE 2500, LI -9, Helicity >100.
A little odd.Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
lapse rates also apper better with the 12z eta, so thats two runs in a role now that they have improved the rates, i would think by tomorrow there will be a slight risk over lower mich on friday in the day 2 outlook.Similar threads
