8/10/04 FCST: [Gulf] Charley

[Zach Bailey]

I agree with Chris's trajectory. I think the TPC/NHC forecast has this one wrong - Charley has made a turn to the east and is going to miss Tampa Bay to the south. My track estimate is the TPC's shifted right, with the center crossing probably 40-50 miles south of tampa.

If this proves to be correct and Charley makes it over Florida and back out into the Atlantic, it could be over the Gulf Stream. However, I think by that time Charley will have been sheared and will have stayed over land too long to do any re-strengthening as it passes by the Atlantic coast.

 

[Glen Romine]

I agree with Chris's trajectory. I think the TPC/NHC forecast has this one wrong -

Be careful with making broad track assumptions based on only an hour or two of apparent eye motion. Hurricanes are stronge beasts, grossly steered by the large scale flow, but only loosely so, and have a tendency to wobble considerable amounts. Note during the period when the eye motion turned more easterly that there was a lack of convection on the western edge, but that has recently filled back in, and that should cut back on the extent of rightward motion in the short term. The rightward motion trend might continue, but I'd be surprised. Sarasota certainly looks at risk - but that places the center most likely tracking just west of Tampa proper, which could cause considerable storm surge problems in northern sections of Tampa Bay.

Glen

 

[Zach Bailey]

Be careful with making broad track assumptions...
Glen

Point taken. It certainly appears that the storm was going through a sort of cycle, as a nice moat developed around the eye and then in the last few minutes new, strong convection has sprung up in its place. I suppose only time will tell where this decides to end up (and I suppose the NHC has a little more HUR forcasting experience than I do :lol: )

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Glen,
In order for the storm to hit north of Sarasota, it would actually have to have a westerly component to its motion, which isn't likely seeing how it still has an easterly component.

UPDATE: CHARLEY IS A CATEGORY FOUR! Recon planes just sampled a 165mph gust, which adjusts to nearly 145mph at the surface....

 

[Glen Romine]

Glen,
In order for the storm to hit north of Sarasota, it would actually have to have a westerly component to its motion, which isn't likely seeing how it still has an easterly component.

Might want to note that Tampa is not on the coast, it is located in the NE corner of Tampa Bay. Perhaps you are thinking of Clearwater?

As an aside, note that considerable small scale spiral banding has developed with Charlie. This typically increases the likelihood of inner core tornadoes in addition to the outer rainband tornadoes, which will be something to watch out for just north of the hurricane track as it makes landfall.

Glen

 

[Zach Bailey]

Latest dropsonde and hurricane hunter aircraft reports available here:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wxdata.htm

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Is there any way we can shift all discussion to the NOW thread? LOL It'd be easier to keep track of discussion... Thanks!

 

[Zach Bailey]

Is there any way we can shift all discussion to the NOW thread? LOL It'd be easier to keep track of discussion... Thanks!

Aye, Aye, Cap'n!

 

[Jason Montano]

Unfortunately it looks like the TPC/NHC is having trouble keeping their website updated, however a good secondary site (that gets their info straight from TPC/NHC) is here:

Ya, the NHC servers have been bombarded with hits as you may imagine and have been kicking out/refusing access. I know the dedicated NHC server at the NSSL was reaching maximum access limits and had to be increased. I imagine the other NHC servers are experiencing the same.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

"The Tampa Tribune website is reporting that the storms track has shifted a bit more north and may just scathe Tampa in passing."

I don't see anywhere on that website where the storm is going to miss Tampa or even come close to missing Tampa... Don't rely on second-third hand reports of the same info - the National Hurricane Center is the source of all hurricane forecasts so your best bet is to go right to the source.

- Rob

Unfortunately it looks like the TPC/NHC is having trouble keeping their website updated, however a good secondary site (that gets their info straight from TPC/NHC) is here:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html

http://kamala.cod.edu/tropic/ also is a decent source

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I'm going to lock this thread -- let's head over to the NOW thread.

If there's a possibility of a second strike someone may start a new thread fo the Atlantic.