Kenny Drake
EF3
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2006
- Messages
- 227
Well, since the previous forecast thread is not following the guidelines I'll create one for Monday.
GFS and NAM are in general agreement with digging a fairly significant 500mb wave into the Rockies during the day and ejecting the associated s/w towards the 00Z timeframe. Rapid pressure/ht falls should occur in response beginning overnight Sunday into Monday morning. The obvious concern will be the amount and depth of moisture return at the low-levels ahead of the system due to a s/w progged to move across the northern plains the day before (and current sfc obs show a cold front headed for the Gulf of Mexico in TX). The strength and location of the more northerly (and earlier) s/w will have major implications on the low-level features for the FCST. The 12Z Friday NAM looks weaker and more northerly than the 00Z Friday (12Z isn't out yet) GFS with regard to the 500mb s/w. Regardless, I do not think the timeframe prior to the arrival of the s/w and mid-level forcing will allow much in the way of moisture return north of Kansas. If the s/w takes a more southerly track (like the 00Z Fri GFS suggests), then parts of S. KS/OK/TX look prime for convection Monday afternoon into evening. If the NAM verifies, mid-level forcing will be weaker across the aforementioned region yielding a stronger CAP due to less favorable mid-level dynamics. However, the NAM does pick up on a 500mb s/w hugging the US/MEX border with several weaker s/w's being ejected out ahead of it. Mid-level response suggests ageostrophic divergence ahead of the 500mb jet max associated with these smaller s/w's being ejected. This would put parts of the area of interest under an area of enhanced lift at mid-levels.
Just for comparison the 00Z Fri UKMET does pick up on the s/w with vortmax over the CA coast at 00Z Monday, almost 2 states west of where the GFS and NAM are progging it to be at the same time. 00Z Fri ECMWF has the 500mb s/w progged to be near 40 lat and near 100W long, which would be fairly in line with the 00Z Fri GFS. Ensembles generally agree with the GFS/ECMWF solution.
This is definitely a day to watch and could be a precursor to the major event expected towards the middle of next week.
GFS and NAM are in general agreement with digging a fairly significant 500mb wave into the Rockies during the day and ejecting the associated s/w towards the 00Z timeframe. Rapid pressure/ht falls should occur in response beginning overnight Sunday into Monday morning. The obvious concern will be the amount and depth of moisture return at the low-levels ahead of the system due to a s/w progged to move across the northern plains the day before (and current sfc obs show a cold front headed for the Gulf of Mexico in TX). The strength and location of the more northerly (and earlier) s/w will have major implications on the low-level features for the FCST. The 12Z Friday NAM looks weaker and more northerly than the 00Z Friday (12Z isn't out yet) GFS with regard to the 500mb s/w. Regardless, I do not think the timeframe prior to the arrival of the s/w and mid-level forcing will allow much in the way of moisture return north of Kansas. If the s/w takes a more southerly track (like the 00Z Fri GFS suggests), then parts of S. KS/OK/TX look prime for convection Monday afternoon into evening. If the NAM verifies, mid-level forcing will be weaker across the aforementioned region yielding a stronger CAP due to less favorable mid-level dynamics. However, the NAM does pick up on a 500mb s/w hugging the US/MEX border with several weaker s/w's being ejected out ahead of it. Mid-level response suggests ageostrophic divergence ahead of the 500mb jet max associated with these smaller s/w's being ejected. This would put parts of the area of interest under an area of enhanced lift at mid-levels.
Just for comparison the 00Z Fri UKMET does pick up on the s/w with vortmax over the CA coast at 00Z Monday, almost 2 states west of where the GFS and NAM are progging it to be at the same time. 00Z Fri ECMWF has the 500mb s/w progged to be near 40 lat and near 100W long, which would be fairly in line with the 00Z Fri GFS. Ensembles generally agree with the GFS/ECMWF solution.
This is definitely a day to watch and could be a precursor to the major event expected towards the middle of next week.
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