04/07/08 FCST: KS/OK/TX

My guess is more likely upper 50's and maybe lower 60's dews in western OK tomorrow by 0z. I'm not so convinced the cap will break as early as 21z, although there does some to be some mid level lift earlier on. Will we get earlier elevated convection, maybe. My guess is the cap will go near 0z though there is a chance of a bit earlier. If one of those waves kicks it off before 21z I doubt it will be a good thing chase wise. Having looked at forecast soundings of sw OK and western n TX I have to concur with Jeff. There are some pretty hellacious readings out there. Most of this occurs between 0z and 3z. Those aren't really the best day time chase times though. :D There could be a number of us out there in the dark when all hell breaks loose. :D Done that a few times. I definitely concur with all the areas previously mentioned, but I do believe convection can occur further south, (far as I can tell) 0z NAM only shows 5 degrees at 700mb near and just south of the Red.

If it does go at 0z...that's not a lot of time to take pictures before dark. I suppose there is always the lightning backlit wallcloud/tube pictures that are sometimes possible. Some of these beasties near Lawton, Altus, Hobart near 10pm CDT may be vicious.

Not sure if I will pull the trigger yet, but hard not to considering the setup. Man, what has it been only 2 days since the last chase? :eek: I'm driving a darker green '96 Chevy Tahoe 4wd if you see me out there (TX plates)(no stickers or lights). Feel free to honk, wave or stop nearby. Seems a lot of the folks out there are those of us here and in the REPORTS section of Stormtrack. Occasionally I run into someone that's on CFDG, Wxchase, etc. If I'm out I'll be trying my new www.SevereStreaming.com software. Look for me on the live chase cams section.
 
If we can get storms to fire on the dryline in the Red River Valley late this afternoon... they will develop in far better surface conditions than were present back on the 3rd. Discrete storms will be worth watching for sure!
4_7ETA.gif
 
Will keep this short as Ive got to get to class pronto
Quick glance at models still shows 60 dews along Red River at 18Z. That I is going to be close. Quick look at sfc obs shows there has been some improvement overnight in TX, more upper 50s and more low 60s south. I cant help but be conservative on this one and say thats going to be that one ingrediant thats not there today which like Shane said earlier will be a complete waste of shear and instability. Anyways, will def be keeping an eye on sfc throughout the morning.
 
Yeah 13z sfc obs and LTS still has a 45 dew and SPS is only 51. I see heavier moisture to the south as MWL has a 58, but here in Austin at 14z there still is no sfc winds to speak of. Not much of a LLJ unless it is up higher - through 850mb. Obviously this is the reason SPC hasn't gone bonkers over the setup. Well, that and lack of stronger upper air forcing mechanisms. Still, if I lived near OKC this would be an easy decision. As for me, it is - a bit of a longer drive.
 
I'm looking at the Chickasha - Hinton - Watonga type line - ECMWF and GFS are both keen to break out precip across the Chickasha area around 2100Z or so, intensifying by 0000Z around Watonga. LIs at 700 hPa are also -ve in this region through that period. Moisture is a bit questionable, with ECMWF much more conservative than GFS (as usual!). So when all's said and done, I'm thinking somewhere close to Watonga.

If I was chasing, I'd probably lunch somewhere west of El Reno, and see how things percolate.
 
Morning surface observations show a moisture tounge (with 60 degree dewpoints) has advanced to the Waco, Hilco, Commanche area by 14Z. FWD sounding confirms that moisture is of sufficient depth and area profilers (near the moist tounge) show southerly winds in the lowest 2km . This in addition to forecast moisture advection throughout the day pretty much put my moisture concerns to rest. I really think we'll hit 60 degrees ahead of the dryline. Visible satellite currently shows cloud cover along the lead edge of the moist tounge. Other than that there will be a cloud free warm sector allowing good insolation and convective temperatures should be reached this afternoon in the 20-23Z time frame.
I didn't have much time to forecast this morning, but I did post a little more on the setup here http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog.html
I still think SPC needs to bump to moderate, but whatever. I am torn between watching KU kick the crap out of memphis and watching tornadoes. Both will be amazing spectacles. I am likely chasing, but there is a slim chance I will stay to watch the game. I am a die hard KU fan. Best of luck to all who chase today. A few tornadoes are highly likely IMO.
 
Moisture will be today's big question, with the northern 2/3rds of OK currently bone dry. However - warm front is moving north across the southern half of OK, bringing with it Tds in the low-mid 50s. With 4-6 hrs more of return flow ahead of us, it is conceivable that Tds in the lower 60s could be present across SW OK later this afternoon. The quality of that moisture is still questionable, but I certainly wouldn't discount today given the strong heating likely to occur, combined with easterlies at the surface along the warm front, and the likelihood of ample upper-level support arriving by later afternoon in the target area.

I don't have much more time for any further analysis, but if I were looking to chase today I would probably target the Snyder, OK area this afternoon with a view to keeping my toes in some deeper/better quality moisture and seeing some nice supercells later in the afternoon/evening.

Good luck to all headed out.

KP
 
Based on the run to run consistency over the last 36 hours of the ETA initiating storms on the dryline at peak instability, I convinced these storms will be worth driving to.
I'm really happy with the evolution of surface conditions so far.
 
I'm just going to go ahead and say what everyone else has already been saying. I was very surprised this morning, looking at the surface dewpoints. 61-63 dewpoints all the way up to the Ft. Worth/Dallas area. The ruc may be a little aggressive with how far northward they make it by this afternoon, but it should be safe to say that we will see low-end 60 dewpoints in southern oklahoma before sundown, possibly even to I-40 (dare I say further?). I'm definitely starting to get excited.:D
 
Analyzing all model data and heres what I found based on my observations 09hr/21Z:
  • NAM has 60 isodrosotherm right along I-40
  • SPC SREF:
    • keeps 60 isodrosotherm on ABI-SPS-Turner Falls line
    • 30% MUCAPE>2000 on ABI-SPS-LAW-Turner Falls-ADM line
    • highest prob of 0-1KM helicity>100 along and N of I-40
    • highest prob of 0-3KM helicity>200 N of a Erick-LAW-Bowie-GLE line
    • bullseye 90% supercell comp>3 over Bowie with >50% over entire threat area
    • small 10% sig torn>3 over Bowie
Again those are forecasted parameters at 21Z

Outside of that I really dont have much to add as everyone else as pointed out the hodos and soundings in the area. As far as a chase target goes, its anyones best guess depending on which model you believe in and how far dryline mixes east. Someone mentioned the EUKMF initiating along Chickasha to Watonga line. Other models initiate further west. Personally I think Lawtons a good compromise with good road options. Im really hoping the NAM verifies in its 60 dew prediction to I-40, that would be nice. Ill event take a US 62-I44 line as warm front with any supercells that develop riding the warm then really spinning...ok ive digressed enough. Good luck.

After 19 years of growing up in Memphis, all I have to say is...GO TIGS
 
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I just can't pull the trigger on chasing today. This is the first time in 7 years I've skipped a good tornado setup, but I just can't miss the KU game. I will be on this setup like a duck on a june bug though if anybody wants any nowcasting help. Just email me at [email protected] if you want any help while on the road.

It is worth mentioning that the RUC has pushed suface features slightly farther South than the NAM. I just started forecasting so I don't know whether or not I'd buy this. If I were chasing I would stop in Clinton for data and then move southeast of the triple point about 25 miles. This may end up being between Altus and Lawton at 21Z, which is about when I expect storms to begin firing. Best of luck to everybody that chases today. You have no idea how jealous I am. What I wouldn't give not to be a KU fan today. I am 90% sure there will be good tornadoes today.
 
I'm sure everyone has seen this, but it's somewhat interesting, or at least fun to look at. The NSSL 4km WRF shows a lone supercell explode along the warm front, right at dusk. Looks like it has a hook and everything. Shift that a little south and watch out OKC metro.

NSSL4km_26_hour.png
 
Latest RUC has the healthiest of the supercells developing in the Duncan OK and Gainesville TX areas by 20-21z. This would be on that favorable northeast nose of the best theta ridge...and ahead of the bulging dryline. Pretty textbook stuff. Now we'll have to see which model plays out.
 
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