8/10/04 FCST: [Gulf] Charley

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CHarley has well organized outflow, as seen in satellite loops, but no discernable eye. He will have plenty of oppurtunity to strengthen as he works his way across the Carribean.

NHC has Charley's landfall in the Gulf Coast of FLA early Friday morning, and then re-emerging on the Atlantic, making a second landfall in SC. This projected path will have Charley just inland, but parallel to the coast. The right front quadrant would remain over water, and allow Charley to maintain some strength as he moves up the coast.

This storm looks to be the problematic one regarding damage and rainfall. Bonnie will be merley an appetizer
" forecast to impact the Gulf Coast states by August 10th. "

That's a little faster than I would forecast - I'm thinking more Thursday night / Friday morning-ish.

- Rob
I should mention that I don't know a lot about hurricanes, but it seems as though it may reach hurricane status (atleast Cat I), as of this writing, maximum sustained winds are 70 MPH and it's still far off from the mainland. Seems as though it might increase in strength by the time it hits Florida or even SC.

EDIT: I should ammend my comments. I wasn't infuring it was already a hurricane, but would be soon. Also.. Does anyone think that 18 MPH is pretty fast a TS or soon to be hurricane?
It's not a hurricane now but likely will be before the day is out...

2 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004


The storm looks pretty good on satellite, and it seems that it's only time before an eye develops...

Good thing Bonney isn't very strong... It's movement is slow enough and its position is close enough to the projected-path of Charley that if it were much stronger, signficant upwelling would occur, which could weaken Charley when it gets into the eastern Gulf in not-too-long
The storm looks pretty good on satellite, and it seems that it's only time before an eye develops...

Per the latestest IR/Vis satellite imagery, it looks like a portion of the clouds are clearing out in the vicinity of the center of circulation. I could just be seeing things, though.

Visible here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...2-vis-loop.html (loop)

IR here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...2-ir4-loop.html (loop)
Yes, it appears that an eye may be beginning to form with the latest sat pics, the COC does appear to be clearing. It is possible to have a fully fledged eye without a clearing though, just heavy cumulus and some overcast skies would take away the visual of the eye. Looks to be an interesting event, none-the-less.
By the latest image (1215 UT), Charley is now on the Cayman Islands. I suppose there would be fairly minimal potential of wekening as it passes over W Cuba, which it looks to do within the next 4-5 hours or more.

And don't look now but there's a mass of cloud at 10°N 35°W that looks just a little suspicious — another fluffy on the way?
Charley has split the Cayman islands and appears to be steadily strengthening. The passage over Cuba is expected to have little, if any, effect on the hurricane's strength. Per the 15Z discussion, models are now shifting the track a little more leftward. Hurricane watches have been extended up the east coast of FL and Tampa Bay is now issuing voluntary evacuation notices for close to 400,000 residents.
An 18Z advisory is out now, significant wording includes bumping winds up to 105mph (cat2 strength) and forecasting of continued strengthening, possibly putting charley into major hurricane (cat3) status once it crosses cuba and enters the gulf.
Night hurricane chase?

Looks like Charlie will hit right around sunset with the full force
coming ashore after dark.

Any thoughts on chasing hurricanes at night? Anyone ever done this?

TPC Storm Tracks

According to the latest TPC's 3-day storm track predictions, it looks like Hurricane Charley will track right over Tampa Bay FL on Friday night. If we didn't have the hurricane naming convention that we have today, this hurricane will probably be called the 2004 Tampa Bay Hurricane. And the local pro football team will be forced to change its team mascot name to Hurricanes. Just thinking out loud on that one...LOL.
The eye of hurricane Charley is now (2106Z) visible on 248nm base reflectivity from the Key West RDA.



Boy, it's really right on the fringe there. What height would that be scanning at? It's so far away....probably just nicking the tops of the clouds.

Edit: found a pretty decent site to figure this out...

According to that, the beam height for the BREF1 would be about 30k ft. (simply doubling the height at 120nm since it looks almost linear) That sound right? Probably a little too conservative as the earth starts to fall away from the beam more and more with distance...
Looking roughly at about 35K-40K, but since hurricanes are pretty much symmetrical (there are exceptions) I'd put the center fix at 21.14N, 82.02W as of 2117Z.


I traveled from Charleston, WV to Pennsylvania today via I-79, and passed several large convoys of cherry picker trucks on the Interstate in West Virginia heading southbound. Another sign that confidence in this being a major storm is high.
Key West got lucky

So far, Hurricane Charley made it over the Cuba mainland without losing its punch and has moved past Key West this morning. I would say that Key West and the rest of the key islands dodged a major bullet. Let's hope and pray it doesn't hit a major coastal city like Tampa Bay. Current projections put it on track to hit the Florida west coast line sometimes later today or tonight.
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