8/1/06 NOW: New England & New York

[HAltschule]

I am not so sure that much of Upstate New York and SW New England will be severe weather free today. Leftover boundaries and orographics will help provide lift this afternoon. There was a 2.5 degree cap present at 12z this morning in Albany, NY with a convective temperature of 92 degrees. Seeing as though we should be in the mid to upper 90's with plenty of sunshine today, I would expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop. Those that do develop should go severe pretty quickly. Forecast CAPE's in Albany are expected to be 6600 J/KG2 today with LI's nnear -6 to -7. Effectiver shear is 35-45 kts across the area and Helicity values are expected to be 150. Now with some cb towers building across NYS, I would expect at least isolated to scattered Severe thunderstorms this afternoon in New York and New England (likely further south than SPC currently has outlooked).

 

[HAltschule]

Isolated Massive Supercell continues to dive Southeastward and strengthen in Southern Columbia County and Northern Dutchess County, NY. Current hail size is 1.75" (golfball) with tops to 45k-50k feet. Several Meso's have appeared on GRLevel3. This storm is in a huge unstable environment and should maintain and strengthen itself as it heads into CT, NYC and LI areas.

Other isolated cells should pop up this afternoon and become severe. One developing cell is west of Albany, NY currently and is trying to overcome the weak cap.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Isolated Massive Supercell continues to dive Southeastward and strengthen in Southern Columbia County and Northern Dutchess County, NY. Current hail size is 1.75" (golfball) with tops to 45k-50k feet. Several Meso's have appeared on GRLevel3. This storm is in a huge unstable environment and should maintain and strengthen itself as it heads into CT, NYC and LI areas.

Other isolated cells should pop up this afternoon and become severe. One developing cell is west of Albany, NY currently and is trying to overcome the weak cap.
[/b]

Yeah, been watching that cell closely, if it looks like it's coming my way I may go after it. The rotation hasn't exactly been rock steady, though... The cell seems to be having trouble deciding whether it really wants to be an isolated supercell. Originally it was, then it seemed to do an RFD gust-out, and now it's trying to reform but keeps showing signs of wanting to split - been some anti-mesos in there too, looked like. I agree if it gets its act together it will be a formidable beast.

Good call on the likelihood of an expanded risk area, BTW.

 

[HAltschule]

Good call on the likelihood of an expanded risk area, BTW.[/b]

Thanks!!

These 2 storms were the only acts in town. I think the cap/mid level warm layer put a lid on things and on these storms to an extent. If we had not had that mid level warmth, we would have seen a massive outbreak of supercells today. Cape of 5000 and LI's of -6 are usually only found in the Plains...not these parts. So, we have another shot at some big storms tomorrow. And I will be travelling from ALB to NYC and back during the day. Hopefully something good will form for me to chase since I am driving 160 miles each way as it is.