7/3/07 FCST: MN / IA / IL / WI

[Mark Blue]

My wife and I are heading out of Denver on I-76 (we just passed Sterling CO) and are planning to set up shop between Kearney and Grand Island, like around Wood River. It's too far to try and drive to NW Iowa or any other points in the chase area, so we'll be working the central NE region today. The latest visible satellite image has quite a few gravity waves forming where we're heading, and other parameters also seem to be in place according to the data I've reviewed. Central NE isn't the ideal spot today, but I have a feeling today could be one of those sleeper days with a nice surprise in store for those who are chasing. Good luck to all who are out today and have a happy and safe 4th!

 

[tom hanlon]

Mesoscale Convective Vortex !!

All I can say is lookout below !!

I did some data mining of previous SPC outlooks. I believe I looked for the "word" "MCV" in the day1 and then looked at the strom reports for tor reports. The results were .. MCV tends to favor a tornado or at least skews a forecast in a more favorable direction. I was as scientific as I could but largely I was just trying to learn of the effects of MCV's.

If I was chasing I would try to focus on the LOW LCL region and as long as I can get under the influence of the MCV then I would worry less about shear/rotation than I otherwise would.

Looking at current satellite I would focus on NE Iowa, SE MN and ajoining regions of WI.