7/20/05 TALK: MN/IA/WI

[Mike Hollingshead]

Hmm, maybe this one down here is just going to completely wash out intead of lift north. Satellite says go to the Sioux City, Sioux Falls area. Yeah that boundary is going to be the play today. I've talked myself into and out of boundaries in less than 5 minutes. Maybe I should just go bowling or something.

 

[Edward Ballou]

I'm glad to see that my two boundary prediction came out right, but I'm thinking the better one to be at is the southern one. Moisture covergence is showing over that Storm Lake to Algona line I believe. I'd definitely go no further north than Sioux City, definitely east from there though. Moville might be a good target to sit and watch for a while. No internet connection unless you find a library. But there's a Cenex there on the west side of town that offers a good view of things coming.

Craig Maire and I know that place pretty well. We spent 5 hours there one night waiting for the cap to break and it never did. Hrm, maybe Moville isn't a good place to go

Feel free to pm me if you think I'm wrong...can't learn if I don't know my mistakes.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I'm sitting right here north of Spencer in my house... haha, ya gotta love local chases. I've been watching that boundry just to my south and it is looking good so far. Capes well up there now above 4000 j/kg and LI's are huge (-11). I'm sitting here for a while longer, or at least until I get my vehicle back! So who all is out there today? Edward, Mike, Craig... I believe I'll be waiting until I see some sort of tower go up. Most likely I'll be heading down 71 towards Storm Lake if it forms south. Good luck all.

 

[Edward Ballou]

I'm not out there(yet?)...virtually chasing from work right now. Tonight my dad wants to go up to Jackpot Junction(Redwood Falls, MN). I'm torn between the two because I *really* want to chase this.

 

[Scott Olson]

I prefer the front just north of FSD. I'll probably head south of Sioux Falls and goto Beresford around 4pm. Although 14-15C at 700mb will probably hold off convection until after 0Z. RUC does start to reduce CINH around this time in the general FSD area.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Latest SPC Mesoanalysis is showing the cap weakening along the convergence around Storm Lake areas.. Still just a waiting game for the most part. If anybody is heading around here (Spencer/Storm Lake) give me a PM and maybe we can hook up if ya want.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

That outflow boundary near Omaha is trailing nw and intersecting the coldfront up there around Yankton(or west of there) I think. That might be a good play IF one can get anything to fire out there. 700 temps are much higher there but so are the sfc temps. I would think something could latch on and go se on that boundary. Satellite isn't too promising at the moment. Almost thinking the only decent convergence is going to end up on that northern front sagging south. Instability is the highest north of this ofb and south of that boundary and cin is trying to erode. Nice to see Yankton has an east wind now and Onawa is 91/81. Perhaps the boundary will strengthen east of Yankton.

 

[Glen Romine]

I haven't followed today's evolution much at all today, so I could be way off on this, but I'm not seeing very good prospects for storms in the eastern NE/SD area. While there is a warm front of sorts in place (more of a deformation zone) - it sits south of the the gradient in 700 mb temps - which if the SPC analysis graphics are correct will make convection difficult. Looks more likely that storms could develop on the Black Hills and roll out as an MCS tonight along I-90. There is some hope of a cell going in NW IA I suppose, where the cap isn't quite as strong - but the flow at 850 is completely dead there right now. There are at least some low clouds evident on the vis sat in the se SD area - so maybe something is possible there. I dunno.

Again, I'm probably out to lunch on this - but it looks like a good day to stay home.

Glen

 

[Jayson Prentice]

New SPC outlook slashes the chances big time! They believe the cap will hold until tonight and then only risks will be large hail/damaging winds. Tornado risk completely gone... Well that is a change that nobody was looking forward too! We'll just wait and see about this. The way it looks is that the cap may hold, but still plenty of time left with diurnal heating... I hate the cap during the summer!!!

 

[nickgrillo]

Line of storms bowing out in southwest lower MI, definitely capable of producing some serious winds, some gusts could probably approach 75MPH. The storms are moving out of better instability, so they will continue to blow themselves apart by the time they reach the Lansing area.

 

[Craig Maire II]

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis page has the Craven Sig Svr at a crazy 120 in portions of northwest Iowa with lift indecies in the -14 range! Still dont think we'll see much action across Iowa until tonight when an MCS may develop/move into Iowa; VERY strong cap in place........Watching and waiting, Cedarfalls, Iowa......

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Yes, the indices are crazy around here but we are lacking good convergence and the cap is destroying us. I could believe we see some development just after sunset around FSD area where there is some convergence... Cap buster today the way it looks now...

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I like how that cluster of storms with embedded supercells just formed over by Rapid City. Not even in the SPC's thunderstorm risk. I just happened to be watching Sioux Falls radar for signs of initiation, and just happened to zoom all the way out. Some of the South Dakota storms have had nice weak echo regions, but not much in the way of strong rotation.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

No sooner than I type the last message and go back to Gibson Ridge Level2 do I see that strong rotation at the lowest tilt has formed.
Southern Millete county and northern Todd county.

Wish I knew what the LCLs were over there.....

 

[Scott Olson]

That storm near Valentine looks quite impressive. Rotation is evident and a top over 60,000ft! Im watching the left-mover that is nearing Pierre, SD. If it is able to keep a more ENE or E track then I will leave for intercept at 10:30.

-Scott.