HAltschule
EF5
The stage is set once again for an explosive day thunderstorm-wise in the U.S. Today the Northeast is under the gun. Temperatures are forecast to be in the Upper 80's to Mid 90's across most of New York and Dew Points will be near 70 again. CAPE values are forecast to be in the 2500-4000 J/KG range this afternoon and a front is sliding south into the region. Latest analysis shows 45-55kts of effective shear to support organized thunderstorms and supercells. There is a mid level cap that can either bust the forecast or cause it to become highly severe. With a trigger moving into the area and slightly lowering heights, I would expect the cap to break this afternoon across Upstate NY and New England. This is why I think the explosive Severe Thunderstorms will occur. Also, any thunderstorm that forms will be able to tap the extreme CAPE that is present enhancing the downburst wind and large hail potential. (Some local NWSFO's are mentioning a very severe outbreak with 75mph+ winds and Golf Ball Hail or larger with the cells). They should also form into bows and lines so wind damage should be enhanced. SPC IS NOW CONSIDERING AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING.
There is one red flag that has me concerned...The models do not really develop much of any convection this afternoon (ETA/GFS/MM5). This is concerning becuase it is more difficult to break the cap here in the NE than it is in the Plains. It takes a lot of ingredients to come together whereas it happens more quickly in the Central US. So, while I am not sure whether we will have a widespread event this afternoon based on the Models, it seems that widely scattered storms should fire at the very least. It will be interesting to see if the models are right or wrong. If they are underplaying the development, then the Northeast is in for one hell of a severe weather day.
There is one red flag that has me concerned...The models do not really develop much of any convection this afternoon (ETA/GFS/MM5). This is concerning becuase it is more difficult to break the cap here in the NE than it is in the Plains. It takes a lot of ingredients to come together whereas it happens more quickly in the Central US. So, while I am not sure whether we will have a widespread event this afternoon based on the Models, it seems that widely scattered storms should fire at the very least. It will be interesting to see if the models are right or wrong. If they are underplaying the development, then the Northeast is in for one hell of a severe weather day.