Bill Hark
EF5
There is definitely some chase potential for the Mid-Atlantic on Friday afternoon. There is a trough slowing shifting eastward and there will be 30-40 kt winds from the southwest at 500mb. The 850 winds will be initially from the south across central VA but will veer except closer to the coast. The 00Z NAm hints at a low forming over the VA/NC border. By 0600 on the 18th, the low is shown over SE PA and it moves northeastward. (The GFS shows the low a bit farther to the south)There should be an area of SE winds along the VA/NC border that will shifted eastward. The NAM shows a predicted area of CAPE of 1500-2000 in southcentral Virginia. Gotta love possible 70-75 dewpoints in SE VA.
I think there is a good chance for some rotating storms and possible tornadoes. The main difficulty is the position and timing of the low to get an area of backed surface winds. I will be stuck at work in the morning and am not sure when I can get out in the afternoon. At this point, I would like to be in Franklin along 58 in southern Virginia but that could change based on tomorrow's early obs.
Bill Hark
I think there is a good chance for some rotating storms and possible tornadoes. The main difficulty is the position and timing of the low to get an area of backed surface winds. I will be stuck at work in the morning and am not sure when I can get out in the afternoon. At this point, I would like to be in Franklin along 58 in southern Virginia but that could change based on tomorrow's early obs.
Bill Hark