7/17/09 FCST: VA/NC/MD/SC

[Bill Hark]

There is definitely some chase potential for the Mid-Atlantic on Friday afternoon. There is a trough slowing shifting eastward and there will be 30-40 kt winds from the southwest at 500mb. The 850 winds will be initially from the south across central VA but will veer except closer to the coast. The 00Z NAm hints at a low forming over the VA/NC border. By 0600 on the 18th, the low is shown over SE PA and it moves northeastward. (The GFS shows the low a bit farther to the south)There should be an area of SE winds along the VA/NC border that will shifted eastward. The NAM shows a predicted area of CAPE of 1500-2000 in southcentral Virginia. Gotta love possible 70-75 dewpoints in SE VA.

I think there is a good chance for some rotating storms and possible tornadoes. The main difficulty is the position and timing of the low to get an area of backed surface winds. I will be stuck at work in the morning and am not sure when I can get out in the afternoon. At this point, I would like to be in Franklin along 58 in southern Virginia but that could change based on tomorrow's early obs.

Bill Hark

 

[dmckemy]

I agree with you Bill; very impressive low level wind shear for this time of year out here, and SE Virginia/NE North Carolina look like good areas to chase. I even think inland areas could stand a chance early on to see some action as I was looking at the 18zNam model run for Raleigh at 18z on Friday, and HEL values were over 300 with winds at the surface coming out of the southeast. A lot of the soundings that I looked at seemed to have "skinny" cape, so hopefully the day will start off sunny to help boost up those values. If conditions still look good tomorrow, I will definitly be out there.

 

[David Dildine]

Bill, thanks for the PM regarding this. I've been watching the models' solutions for this shortwave for several days now with interest. Unfortunately for me, tonight's NAM has shifted the low further south. The biggest hurdle for chasing around here is never wx related it's always traffic so I'm not going for the optium target which would be SE VA or NE NC. If it was a weekend I'd be tempted but 95 and 64 are horrible. I am hoping that lower southern MD or the Northern Neck will see some action though. Better for me - they're more local and I have some work to catch up on anyway. Looking forward to see what SPC thinks.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Can we add TX, NM, CO and KS to the thread please?

I'm excited about today's potential. A couple of shortwaves will traverse into the southern plains this afternoon and evening. Td in SE CO and the NE TX Panhandle are near 60 which is great for this high terrain area. As of right now, CAPE is close to 4,000 in this general area, along with 50-60 kts of 0-6 km shear. I expect some large hail reports along with a couple of tornado reports. Eventually the storm will consolidate into an MCS late this evening as they move SE through the TX panhandle. Initially, isolated supercells should be the rule, with some supercells being very strong due to the shear and instability. I'm targeting the NW TX Panhandle near Dalhart or Texline area.

 

[Jason Foster]

Can we add TX, NM, CO and KS to the thread please?

I know it's too late now, but technically Jason...I think you could have started a different forecast thread in this instance due to different geographical areas:

(7) There will not be more than one FCST thread, one NOW thread, 
one REPORTS thread, and one DISC thread for any one date. If the 
weather is a different type (storms vs. snow) [B]or is in a different part of 
the country[/B], then the user will start another thread. A single target area 
spanning multiple states is not justification in itself to create additional 
threads.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=9812