7/11/10 FCST: KS/NE/OK/MO

[AaronPippin]

Most of the chase season is winding down, however looking at the latest model analysis, Sunday looks extremely promising over eastern KS and SE Nebraska on both the NAM and GFS 12z runs for the 00z MON period. GFS is showing 3000+ CAPE with 40-50kts of bulk shear, and the NAM is even more impressive showing 4000+ CAPE with 50-60 kts of shear. Its suprising to me the degree of agreement between both models still 84 hours out.
Just wondering if anyone else had their eye on this system and their thoughts/input as well??

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I saw this too and it is an unseasonably appealing setup with sufficient wind shear at the mid-upper levels to keep storms sustained which is rare this time of the year. CAPE and moisture is never a problem this time of the year and I like the strong convergence in NE Kansas where the surface winds will be out of SE/E directions along what is some sort of boundary likely a warm front or OFB. I also like the S/SE 850s over NE KS/SE NE. It is something to keep an eye on for sure but lets just hope it verifies.

 

[Andy Elliott]

I agree. The models have been, and continue to be, in agreement for this area. I would bet on an SPC day 3 slight risk for the eastern 1/3 of Kansas, as well as Nebraska.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think I just came up with a new chase motto for myself: If the low levels ain't a blowin, I ain't a goin. Surely it's already been taken though.

Here are the exact thoughts that went through my mind this morning in the order they did so in....after seeing this setup. "Great, it's that time of year, the sucker Mike out stupid setups." Followed quicky by, "I'd rather just have no ops if it can replace me getting suckered out on dumb ones."

I swear you see this same sort of setup each summer and when it happens to be this far east in the alley....it doesn't work. Don't ask me why it matters if it is in eastern KS/NE....western IA/MO.....and not central NE/SD/KS...but it does. I can think of no examples of such a setup producing interesting stuff when in this general location/distance east of the Rockies. Course this isn't a massive change over spring in general as far as location anyway. Maybe it is just chasing such an area more frequently since it is close that makes it seem this way.

Anyway, it seems like this can work wonders in July out in central NE...storm deviates and wala it goes nuts for hours straight. Place the same setup where this is and wala...fast grungy mushbombs. Like more nw flow, if it isn't overly strong, needs deviation to work well and for whatever reason that happens a lot easier further west. If I was dying to chase(which I half am) I'd be eyeing the day before this one in central NE more. I just hate ne KS about as much as nw MO anymore. se NE too, all the same pot of garbage. The places that I continually get suckered to and am praying it doesn't happen again.

There, madness is assured in those areas now.

 

[Mike Smith]

KS-MO Threat

My forecast: tornadoes, severe wind and severe hail 70 mi. north and south of a line from 10 W of TOP to 10 ESE of JEF.

Normally, I would not forecast tornadoes in this situation, but, 1) there will be localized boundary due to the morning storms and 2) a much-stronger than seasonal jet stream.

The RUC forecast sounding for Warrensburg, MO is surprisingly favorable for supercells and tornadoes by early to mid-afternoon.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

...Can we add OK to the title?...

Strong instability has developed over North Central and North Western OK INVOF of weak cold front. Shear profile is not impressive but may be just enough to get severe storms and a supercell cannot be ruled out.

Winds are starting to back very slightly in front on the boundary. This will allow convergence to increase slightly and initiate storms in the next 2-3 hours. I will probably be heading to Kingfisher, OK soon.