7/11/07 NOW: CO

[Mark Farnik]

MD #1450 has been issued for eastern CO. While the cap is still holding on the plains, cumulus towers are rapidly building along the Front Range foothills. Surface temps now approaching the mid to upper 80's should dissolve the cap and allow the storms to go gangbusters as they move onto the plains in the next hour or two. Primary severe threats are going to be large hail and damaging winds, however with the instability and strong directional shear a few isolated tornadoes are likely as well. A Tornado Watch should be issued for the area in the next few hours.
The storms will likely rapidly transistion to massive HP beasts, so if any tornadoes are to be seen today, y'all will need to get on them in the first hour or two of their lifecycle. Due to farming commitments (we're harvesting today) I cannot chase So to those who can, best of luck and watch out for the inevitable gorilla hail!

 

[Mark Farnik]

Severe T-Storm Watch #510 has been issued for east central and southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico and the far western parts of the TX and OK Panhandles, roughly south of I-70 and north of I-40. Cells are erupting along the convergence zone along the Palmer Divide and one supercell has already developed in northern El Paso County northeast of Colorado Springs, while other supercells are erupting over southern Weld County and northern Adams County.
There is a very interesting little note in the text for Watch #510 which has me quite excited:

IN NE CO...STRONGER LOW LVL SHEAR AND SMALLER T/TD SPREADS SUGGEST A
SOMEWHAT GREATER SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL RELATIVE TO POINTS
FARTHER S. PARTS OF NE CO AND PERHAPS SE WY/SW NEB/NW KS MAY
REQUIRE A TORNADO WW A BIT LATER THIS EVENING IF IT APPEARS THAT
SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON N SIDE OF DENVER CYCLONE.

So looks like I'll be able to just let the storms come to me rather than have to chase them! There are some outflow boundaries hanging around from last nights convection, and if discrete cells do develop and can root onto those, it might be a busy night...
So for y'all who opted for the southern option today (which is basically everyone) you might want to do a 180 and get north of I-70.
Stay tuned.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Tornado Watch #511 has just been issued for southeastern WY, the western NE Panhandle, northeastern CO and northwestern KS/extreme southwestern NE until. The cap has finally broken and several cells are forming on the Cheyenne Ridge in southeastern Wyoming and should quickly go supercellular as they move southeast. I won't have to move a muscle, as these storms are coming right at me! We're racing like mad to get the last of the triticale and wheat in before the storms get here...
Its looking like it could be quite an interesting evening. Stay tuned.