7/08/2007 FCST: CO

[Stan Rose]

I normally criticize posting hunches, but ill make an exception for myself
Tomorrow CO is barely included in even the 5% severe threat, but i have a suspicion something funky will happen. I don't plan on chasing, but i do plan on keeping an eye on obs tomorrow for a possible mad dash to the north. The 00Z NAM is even less favorable, but here's the rub:
Mesoscale (and smaller) processes are going to completely dictate what happens tomorrow. The mesoscale models are having fits right now pinning down the timing and effects of the front/push moving across NE CO tomorrow. Convective blobs/feedback are wrecking havoc with the other fields, so all bets are off. dewpoints are currently in the upp 60s-70s in ND. it could be quite interesting when this boundary makes its way south late tomorrow. Boundaries+high dews+shortwave+July+CO = potential big surprise!

 

[Tony Laubach]

Stan, I like you're thinking! I like even more to see the leaning towards the slight risk up here! HWO mentioning 2 inch hail up here, so certainly some exciting June prospects for today and quite possible all week (for later threads).

With today's FROPA and post-frontal upslope, we should see convective development over the plains this afternoon. Obviously hail and heavy rain are the big threats with a slim, outside chance we could see a landspout. Not something I would hold my breath for, but you know how it is out here!

Looking to be on the road at or shortly after 2pm, starting north and working my way south and east through the day!

 

[Patrick Martin]

Winds are NE at my house with a dew of 48 and like Tony indicated, things are starting to moisten up across NE CO in response to post frontal upslope. Have to boogy to run a couple errands but if things start to pop, will be ready to go in the 2-3pm time frame with initial positioning projected to be just north and east of Denver Int'l.