5/31/10 FCST: CO/KS/NE/OK/TX/NM

[Stan Rose]

Well, I really want to discuss 6/1, since it may be a rare chance for me to actually hit the road, but no sense in talking about Tuesday when there's a slight risk for tomorrow.

So...It's interesting to note that both NAM and WRF have been very consistent in blowing up a cell(s) over SE CO tomorrow afternoon. Cap is pretty strong, but by 20-21Z convergence along the retreating dryline should help fire off a storm or two over the Southeast Plains. CAPE realistically in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with dews in the lower 50s sneaking into CO, and bulk shears around 40-50 kts should be sufficient for supercellular structure. Decent potential for large hail. Low level winds are not very exciting, which will limit tornado production, but hey--this is Colorado and anything is possible! Initial target: Pritchett.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

I'm concerned about the shear -- it may be borderline w/ 30-40kts forecasted to reach the far SW corner of KS, but not quite reaching into CO/NM. Without shear, the storms aren't going to rotate. The 18Z GFS showed slightly backing winds at the surface and 850mb level, but the 06Z GFS now has them veering. Perhaps we can get some localized backing winds which would help tremendously with this highly-marginal setup.

Either way, the wife and I just started our chasecation, so we're departing Duncan, OK shortly and heading to either Guymon or Liberal...and will adjust as necessary from there. Let's hope for some elevated magic!

Bryan