Matthew Crowther
EF4
This may be of interest to nobody, since I am not sure if anybody will still be chasing, but the 12Z GFS looks mighty interesting for the ND area
Monday afternoon/evening. The good moisture should have worked its way up there by then, the model has a surface low along the SD border with a warm/stationary front
extending to the east. The mid-level flow is quite strong from the west so the shear should be very impressive. In fact. the GFS forecast sounding for 00Z Tuesday fits into the "too good to be true" category with SBCAPE of 3900 and a 0-3KM SREH of almost 600! The cap may not be as much of an issue as in recent situations- so barring any significant model changes between now and then (certainly quite possible, I admit) it looks like any brave souls that are willing/able to chase this area could be rewarded.
Monday afternoon/evening. The good moisture should have worked its way up there by then, the model has a surface low along the SD border with a warm/stationary front
extending to the east. The mid-level flow is quite strong from the west so the shear should be very impressive. In fact. the GFS forecast sounding for 00Z Tuesday fits into the "too good to be true" category with SBCAPE of 3900 and a 0-3KM SREH of almost 600! The cap may not be as much of an issue as in recent situations- so barring any significant model changes between now and then (certainly quite possible, I admit) it looks like any brave souls that are willing/able to chase this area could be rewarded.
