6/7/04 FCST: SD, ND, NE

[Matthew Havin]

GFS 992mb low progged over W SD on Monday the 7th at 0Z. Discuss.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta7...2hr_850_tmp.gif

Anyone ever see 35c at 850 before? I don't know that I have since looking at models the little bit I do, but I'm sure it happens. OUCH

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I guess I'll probably chase this setup tomorrow. Initial target is Watertown SD. Not exactly what to think of the setup. 40-50knts at 500 atop some good instability will get me up there for sure. Guessing 850 and below will be rather weak along the front? Temp/TD spreads might be kind of high, but there IS plenty of moisture to keep the dews up. Currently 90/75 in an area in far ne OK. Low 80s over upper 60 dews in most of eastern NE. Could be one of those west of the twin cities days for sure.

 

[mikegeukes]

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL
MN...NWRN WI...

Not a good chase territory, lots of trees, lakes, swamps
and the road network is not that great.

Map of Minnesota Land Use:
http://mapserver.lmic.state.mn.us/landuse/

Mike

 

[Todd Sprinkmann]

Yes, Mike, that is truly a good news/bad news outlook.

Oh to have that hatched area shifted about 100-150 miles to the SW...

Oiling up the chainsaw...

Todd

 

[B Ozanne]

Anyone ever see 35c at 850 before?

I'm seeing 35C at 850mb in places where 850mb is subterrainean or right at the surface. Denver is close to 800mb +/- and it gets to 100 degrees there. So, not too significant.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

At the time the eta had the 35c well into sw NE, which sfc of course is well below 850mb level.