Bill Hark
EF5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]Nice setup for the northeast as a trough approaches and upper level low over the Great Lakes. There will be decent 500 SW flow with winds of 30-40 shifting eastward from PA and NY to NJ and other points eastward. There is a large area of 70 degree dewpoints for eastern PA, NJ into southern NY and northeast. The RUC is bullish with CAPE showing a large area of 1500 and a bullseye of 2000 in SE PA. The WRF shows less coverage with smaller areas of 1500 toward southern NJ, PA and SE NY into CONN and shifted eastward. Helicity is marginal at 50- 100 for eastern PA into central NY per WRF while the RUC shows 200 SRH for most of NJ by 00Z. I like the clearing over most of NW and SE PA on Satellite. Finding an area of backed surface winds will be problematic as the models show SE winds more toward the coast along NJ and better backing northward into SE NY into MA and New England area. I also don't like the SW 850 mb winds. This will definitely be a severe weather day for the northeast. The SPS mentions the possibility of an upgrade to moderate which I think is likely for damaging winds rather than tornadoes. I agree with their 5% risk for tornadoes. I have two potential targets, mutually exclusive due to traffic and distance. For better forecast surface backing Newburgh, New York. My other target is farther south in Philadelphia where the models are showing slightly better SRH and CAPE. Neither area is good chase country even for the northeast but since Philadelphia is a large metropolitan area, I would choose Newburgh, NY for best potential of tornadoes.Bill Hark
http://www.harkphoto.com[/FONT]
