6/25/06 NOW: IA / MO / IL / WI

There appears to be increasing severe potential across this region this afternoon. Sunlight breaking out now in the risk area, couple MD's out. Now a bullseye of tornado potential over most of NW IL. Things are pretty much capless with a few pockets 2000 J/kg SBCAPE. As a matter of fact, the only CINH is sitting over my head, lol. I don't think the tornado risk is going to verify. The shear parameters aren't very good at all. I think there could be a hail/wind producing squall line, kinda line the one out there now. I'll be watching though.

EDIT: Woah man, the LCL's and LFC's are both below 2000. If there was just some shear... wishful thinking.
 
New target: Near Madison on I-39/90...far enough south to make a move towards IL on short notice, but far enough north to make a move north or east if/when storms fire in Southern WI.

New MD out for Southern WI with mention of possible brief tornado activity. There is a small 1500+ CAPE bulge nosing into the far south central counties. The RUC brings this CAPE up to 2500+ by 2100z. LI's down to -5 in the same region, and near -8 by 2100z. This area would already be lighting up if it weren't for the cloud cover due to the boundary(s) in the region. It's be a slow heating day, but things are starting to get primed.

If we can tap into the energy farther SW of here, it might be a show later.

*edit*

SW WI/NW IL/NE IA are clearing out nicely, so give it an hour or two to heat up and hopefully the real storms can fire up. Here in far SE WI, it's still cloudy but the moisture is returning (based on sticking my head out the door).
 
Tornado Warning in effect for SW of Lafeyette, IN. The storm looks strong but not too organized on radar. The TOR was reported to the public so I doubt the credibility.
 
Report looks credible to me. Non-supercell tornado case. Two storms colliding from the west and east along that stationary boundary provides the enhanced updraft and ample streamwise vorticity for a tornado in this instance. Tornado appears to have been observed at the Lafayette airport as well and documented in the surface observation.
 
I witnessed the tornado warned storm go up over Attica, IN... from a golf course, lol. Nothing impressive, multi-cell structure. Sirens went off so I drove East near Odel where tornado report was given. High based but large mesocyclone was visible just East of Attica with multiple striations. Most liekly only a funnel (if anything at all) near Odel, the storm was not impressive at all and I returned to golfing until I heard of the Lafayette report... now I'm hoping I don't miss out on anything worthy. VERY un-organized, don't expect it was anything impressive. Will keep an eye out since were now in 2% tornado under slight risk from SPC. Storm spotters around these parts aren't exactly on top of things..., stupid is harsh so I'll say un-educated.
 
Touchdown was reported by EM with public reports of it intermittantly up-and-down from a stationary storm.

Anyways looking at WI/IL radar, these funnelnadoes may be common the next few hours with the cells barely moving (if at all) combined with the upper-level low drifting through. More a monster-rain/some-hail type event, certainly not a "real tornado" day in progress.
 
Nice looking landspout southwest of Lafayette...

ygpFECA.jpg


Full story: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_sto...d=2883&source=0
 
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