Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target:
Ellis, KS
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated high-based supercell storms will develop after 6 PM CDT. Wind and severe hail will be the primary severe threats. Storms will track towards the east at 20 mph.
Synopsis:
The 500mb chart indicated a well defined shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow over KS, MO, and IA. Associated with this feature was a convective complex at the nose of a 35kt southwesterly low-level jet. Today looks like a repeat of the last two days in KS, with yet another strong to severe MCS and attendant outflow boundary rolling across the KS/NE border. Looking at surface observations, higher dewpoints of 70F or higher were confined to the southeastern third of KS. Towards the west, capping appears strong with the 12Z DDC sounding indicating a convective temperature of over 100F.
Discussion:
Shortwave ridging will build into the area through the afternoon hours. A compact area of low pressure, largely thermal with surface temperatures approaching 100F, will develop over west central KS. A warm front will extend east of this feature, where it intersects an outflow boundary over north-central KS. To the north, dewpoints will recover into the low 70’s. Once again, backing surface flow will exist north of the front/outflow boundary.
Capping should remain strong into the late afternoon hours with ridging in place. After 00Z, a compact 500mb shortwave will approach western KS. A combination of increasing lift and high surface temperatures should be sufficient to overcome warm mid-level temperatures. During the evening hours, hodographs will increase as a low-level jet strengthens to 40 kts. The area also lies on the southern periphery of stronger H5 flow.
Bill Schintler
9:45 AM CDT, 06/21/10
Ellis, KS
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated high-based supercell storms will develop after 6 PM CDT. Wind and severe hail will be the primary severe threats. Storms will track towards the east at 20 mph.
Synopsis:
The 500mb chart indicated a well defined shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow over KS, MO, and IA. Associated with this feature was a convective complex at the nose of a 35kt southwesterly low-level jet. Today looks like a repeat of the last two days in KS, with yet another strong to severe MCS and attendant outflow boundary rolling across the KS/NE border. Looking at surface observations, higher dewpoints of 70F or higher were confined to the southeastern third of KS. Towards the west, capping appears strong with the 12Z DDC sounding indicating a convective temperature of over 100F.
Discussion:
Shortwave ridging will build into the area through the afternoon hours. A compact area of low pressure, largely thermal with surface temperatures approaching 100F, will develop over west central KS. A warm front will extend east of this feature, where it intersects an outflow boundary over north-central KS. To the north, dewpoints will recover into the low 70’s. Once again, backing surface flow will exist north of the front/outflow boundary.
Capping should remain strong into the late afternoon hours with ridging in place. After 00Z, a compact 500mb shortwave will approach western KS. A combination of increasing lift and high surface temperatures should be sufficient to overcome warm mid-level temperatures. During the evening hours, hodographs will increase as a low-level jet strengthens to 40 kts. The area also lies on the southern periphery of stronger H5 flow.
Bill Schintler
9:45 AM CDT, 06/21/10
