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6/21/07 NOW: NE SD KS IA MN MO

Looks like a wall cloud on the severestudios cam. Is that the funnel on the right side coming out of the wall cloud?
 
That storm that the severstudio crew is on now has DBZ of 72+. New tornado warned cell west of Valentine with a tornado reported with this storm.

For only a 5% chance of a tornado and only a slight risk this area is sure getting hammered. I think these storms should have waranted a mod risk. What was the reason for the SPC keeping the chances so low for lots of organized severe storms and tornadoes? (I based my forecasted which busted off of this :( )
 
The convection to the W of the Bassett cell seems to be having a negative impact on the storms rotation, but with these strange storm motions, you never know what could happen.

The severestudios.com cam is really cool feature.
 
That storm that the severstudio crew is on now has DBZ of 72+. New tornado warned cell west of Valentine with a tornado reported with this storm.

For only a 5% chance of a tornado and only a slight risk this area is sure getting hammered. I think these storms should have waranted a mod risk. What was the reason for the SPC keeping the chances so low for lots of organized severe storms and tornadoes? (I based my forecasted which busted off of this :( )

Not sure I'm seeing anything worth more than the 5% they had in place. So far only seeing the one report on LBF's list. And that one seems questionable. Nebraska is rapidly looking like a mess too. I just hope it makes it to eastern NE for some lightning.

Edit: Actually that one report for northern Cherry Co. might not be that questionable.
 
Nebraska is rapidly looking like a mess too. I just hope it makes it to eastern NE for some lightning.

Also hoping for the same, while the 8 o'clock SPC outlook was promising for it occuuring, latest radar trends seem to indicate that things are trending towards not bringing much besides rain to this portion of the state. Per the Mesoanalysis trends it appears that conditions are favorable for the line to move farther to the East and eventually SE along the earlier mentioned NW to SE oriented OFB, keeping my fingers crossed.
 
Not sure I'm seeing anything worth more than the 5% they had in place. So far only seeing the one report on LBF's list. And that one seems questionable. Nebraska is rapidly looking like a mess too. I just hope it makes it to eastern NE for some lightning.

Edit: Actually that one report for northern Cherry Co. might not be that questionable.

Well with all of the tornado warnings and NWS wording saying "public reporting a tornado" etc I assumed there was more than one tornado. Today was just not a good day to chase tornadoes but great for chasing storms. Central and eastern Iowa had winds of 70-80+ which for me is pretty eciting. Powerpoles snapped in half and large trees down are reported with some of these storms that came through Iowa earlier.

My original forecast for NE did not bust after after all which was mostly a hail and some damaging winds threat. Most of the storms have been warned for hail or some damaging winds and the tornado reports are so far only one confirmed tornado. I did down play the risk in NE but I based my forecast off the slight risk the SPC had. I learned my lesson that I need to shut up and quit trying to forecast without more experience.

A line of storms now moving over Peoria capable of large hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH. A few storms in NE still capable of large hail. Nothing else realy looking severe at the moment.
 
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Well with all of the tornado warnings and NWS wording saying "public reporting a tornado" etc I assumed there was more than one tornado. Today was just not a good day to chase tornadoes but great for chasing storms. Central and eastern Iowa had winds of 70-80+ which for me is pretty eciting. Powerpoles snapped in half and large trees down are reported with some of these storms that came through Iowa earlier.

My original forecast for NE did not bust after after all which was mostly a hail and some damaging winds threat. Most of the storms have been warned for hail or some damaging winds and the tornado reports are so far only one confirmed tornado. I did down play the risk in NE but I based my forecast off the slight risk the SPC had. I learned my lesson that I need to shut up and quit trying to forecast without more experience.

A line of storms now moving over Peoria capable of large hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH. A few storms in NE still capable of large hail. Nothing else realy looking severe at the moment.
It's not a problem to forecast w/o much experience. It is a problem to forecast trying to sound like you know something when you don't (not directed at you).

5% nonhatched torn worked perfectly today.

Many of the sups are dead as other weaker convection have overtaken the sups.
 
Unbelievable. We are stuck in some High Precip storms right now (see spotter network reports). HGWY 281 is completely messed up due to construction.. made multiple jogs east and west trying to get home. Meanwhile, strong wind gusts, horizontal rains, road flooding, dime size hail, had strong wind shear by Lake Andes / Wagner area. Zero visibility at times on I-90 just a minute ago and cars pulled over.

It has been a good chase, but we are tired. Started at 7:30 AM this morning and it is now 12:04 AM friday.

We have posted quick video clips on our chase blog at www.severestudios.com - thanks to everyone that watched tonight. Full report tomorrow.
 
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