6/19/2010 NOW: NE/KS

[Mike Smith]

Yes, there are cells developing on radar about 20 NW of CNK. Satellite at 2115Z shows TCU from the cells NW of CNK down toward RSL and then toward Ness City. I continue to believe that thunderstorms will develop toward at least Russell and perhaps farther south.

Sig Tor parameter along I-70 rises to 7 (!) along I-70 toward MHK based on 21Z SPC tools. So, the area from the counties containing I-70 north to the Nebraska border looks ripe from now until 9pm.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

6/19/2010 NOW: KS/NE

Yeah we are coming up behind the western cell firing up west of Concordia. That thing has just exploded. Already has an anvil and a hug overshooting top. I am streaming video too btw. Go to KWCH's weather page and click on the chaser radar tab to get my stream. Could be a good day.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Looks like initiation is occurring where the outflow boundary from the morning MCS is intersecting the bigger synoptic scale boundary draped across the KS/NE border - a loop of the visible satellite shows the outflow boundary oriented nw/se across north central KS, from near Concordia southeast.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The cell we are on near Osborne Kansas looks pretty weird. It has an updraft base on both sides of the rain core like it wants to split or something. The rain core is slowly gaining intensity, but storm still has a long ways to go.

 

[Mike Smith]

Hook developing near the town of Jewell and there is an increasing circulation that is not quite gate-to-gate as of 5:22pm.

Yes, as Mikey says, the cell near Codell is trying to split based on radar.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/?M=10164&C=20226&V=10012&U=10012&P=true

Nasty looking rotating wall cloud with a collar cloud type feature around it - tornado looks immanent.

 

[Jeff Duda]

It appears taht the same thing that happened yesterday in southern Iowa is happening again today in north central Kansas. Surface winds in the area are very weak; despite being backed to give better shear, there just isn't enough there to hold back the storm's outflow. Current level II BV from KUEX shows a very large, but very broad circulation to the south of the storm. It also appears that the initial updraft/meso that triggered the tornado warning has been overtaken by a new one just to its southwest. This is almost exactly what happened yesterday. The storm certainly has a good chance to spit out a quick tornado or two, but I predict within an hour the storm will not be containing its outflow very well at all and will probably transition into a cell bow echo. Other storms may develop to the south and west of this one and go through a similar evolution.

 

[cstrunk]

That storm west of Concordia looks very nice. And the best part is it's motion: less than 20 mph!! It will be interesting to see if the convection moving in from the west/southwest will affect the storm of it this storm can stay out ahead of that stuff.

Oh how I wish I was still in the midwest for this chase season!! Being stuck here in east Texas has been Godawfully boring weather wise.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Nice hook near Belleville/Concordia KS right now...
POSH is 100% @ 2.50"
Nice couplet too...

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Too bad the 500mb winds aren't much stronger. I think this along with the weaker surface winds are hindering the tornado potential at this time. 500mb winds are only 25kts by looking at mesoanalysis. Can you have too much directional shear? The surface winds in Concordia just east of the storm are due east where the 500mb winds are due west. It seems like I have learned in the past that too much isn't good. That's 180 degrees of turning from surface to 500mb. That combined with the weaker 500mb flow may be causing problems.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I'm on the Alton, KS storm right now, and while there is good broad scale rotation, the base is elevated and as I type this from the SSE side of the area of interest I'm being hit by cold outflow.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

We were initially right behind the lead storm this afternoon and then dropped back to the second supercell in line that started over by Osborne. It tried like hell to produce, but never got it done. It would wrap up hard and then right as it looked like a tornado was iminent it would fall apart and cycle through again. I have no clue what the problem was. I'll try and get some video and stills loaded onto the computer and post them when I get home.
On a side note this chase pretty much sums up my whole season. No matter what storm I picked this year it was always the wrong one. We were on the lead cell and it looked terrible. It was multicell crap. A lone supercell fires behind it so we do the common sense thing and drop back. What happens. The multicell crap starts cranking and gets a wicked hook on it. I have had the worst streak of luck ever in my chase career over the last two years.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Too bad the 500mb winds aren't much stronger. I think this along with the weaker surface winds are hindering the tornado potential at this time. 500mb winds are only 25kts by looking at mesoanalysis. Can you have too much directional shear? The surface winds in Concordia just east of the storm are due east where the 500mb winds are due west. It seems like I have learned in the past that too much isn't good. That's 180 degrees of turning from surface to 500mb. That combined with the weaker 500mb flow may be causing problems.

That is what kept me home blowing this day off, for the most part(till I left to chase lol). But I then had to go and leave late anyway, only to turn around 120 miles later and come back home. You could tell watching the radar that too much turning deal was in full effect. Kinda pulsy, trying to hook, but then losing that and that going nw, only to repeat as a new plume goes up se of that. I think it could have worked if the 500s were more sw if even still at just 25 knots. I hope tomorrow doesn't do a repeat of that much turning.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

That is what kept me home blowing this day off, for the most part(till I left to chase lol). But I then had to go and leave late anyway, only to turn around 120 miles later and come back home. You could tell watching the radar that too much turning deal was in full effect. Kinda pulsy, trying to hook, but then losing that and that going nw, only to repeat as a new plume goes up se of that. I think it could have worked if the 500s were more sw if even still at just 25 knots. I hope tomorrow doesn't do a repeat of that much turning.

I didn't chase, but was curious why that initial storm didn't tornado. Looking at mesoanalysis I noticed the weak 500mb winds and too much turning. I agree that even at 25kts the 500mb winds would have made a difference at southwest instead of due west. Low level shear was nice and that storm seemed to anchor on the warm front nicely. The 500mb winds just jumped out at me when looking at mesoanalysis. I am not saying 25kts at 500mb kills everything, but combine that with due west 500mb winds and due east surface winds and it wasn't a good mix in my opinion. Everything else seemed to be pretty well in place.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Witnessed a multi vortex tornado approximately 8 miles west of Norway, Kansas at 2325z on highway 148...about 1/4 mile to our south. It most likely transitioned into a wedge shortly after 2331z, but we had to evacuate east. Pics later...