6/16/04 FCST: Central Plains

Scott Roberts

Anybody for another Harper county trip Wednesday? Or do you this round might slide through without 'naders?

Best,
Scott
 
There are some decent helicities and some moderate CAPE, with a nice low pressure just to the southwest, could be some decent storms...

Robert
 
Surprised no one is talking about it, but there is some real quality moisture on high terrain south of the Palmer Divide in southeast CO, generally along the upper Arkansas River. There is also 30-35 kt WSWly flow at 6km above 10 kt easterlies at the surface, so it looks like supercells will be the mode. If I could transport myself there, I'd be sitting in beautiful downtown La Junta.
 
The instability and winds are better than yesterday and look at what happened in SE colorado on Tuesday. Campo in Baca county tooka direct hit from a tornado but nobody even mentioned it. I have to work until 4 so I doubt I will be able to get there in time but I like the SE colorado/ SW kansas area today. CAPE is already 3000 and SRH is 200+. DP's are in the 60's and clearing skies will add to heating. Think that is why the SPC finally went MOD for that area. I am off the next few days so I am sure I will be chasing on Thu and fri.
 
From the Hazardous Weather Outlook from Goodland, KS:
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO HILL CITY. THE TORNADO THREAT IS
ESPECIALLY HIGH FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE THE WIND
PROFILE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR VIOLENT OR LARGE TORNADOES.

I think I'll work my way SE from Denver at 2:00pm and follow the convection as it builds along the cold front. Good luck to everyone out there!
 
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