6/15/08 NOW: KS/MO

[Michael O'Keeffe]

A PDS severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for much of E/C KS and N MO until 5pm tonight. A large system is forming in SE Nebraska with numerous warnings in place heading SE. We will be heading out shortly to see if we can get at least some neat structure!

 

[Daniel Christianson]

I hope you get some good structre down there, up here was just a mess" in Omaha NE... good luck

 

[Mike Smith]

The 9am RUC-derived MUCAPE from SPC already exceeds 5,000j around SLN. Given the extreme DL convergence from RSL to ICT, it would seem that rapid intensification will occur in that area in another hour or two when the thunderstorms to the west arrive.

 

[John Farley]

Looks like an HP supercell embedded in the line near the IA-MO border, near Memphis, MO. Multiple SVR warnings have been issued on it, with wind damage reported. Eventually, its track would bring it near or a little north of Springfield, IL if it holds together. With heating of the day now well under way, it may well hold together.

 

[beaudodson]

Looks like a large cell forming near Clinton, MO. This is ahead of the main squall line. GRAE showing some nice hail readings on the cell. It appears that CAPE values in that area of anywhere from 2000-3000.

Edit: They have a warning on that cell now.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

You can see the gust front as it is passing in front of EAX radar. Pretty cool. The sky got dark here for a few minutes and now just raining heavily. Nothing really more than some general type thunderstorms. And it didn't give me the photo op I wanted. A person might be able to head west on I-70 and get something more dramatic here in a bit. Otherwise, it's time to take a nap.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

No napping in Illinois as it looks like the main event may be shifting over here. Rapid severe development in western Illinois near the Iowa and Missouri borders. Surface cape values are already nearing 4000 j/kg across central and northern Illinois. Things could get a little bit nuts in the next hour or two.

While things look pretty linear 850/500 cross over is great over this area so if we can get a tail end supercell on the southern end of that cluster I wouldn't rule out tornado time.

 

[cstrunk]

New thunderstorm development in north central Kansas. There is an outflow boundary moving southwest along a line roughly from Ottawa to Manhattan. I would watch this boundary to see if there could be some storm/boundary interactions... I wouldn't be surprised to see a brief spin-up.

Otherwise, the thunderstorms that have rolled through the KC area have been rather lackluster.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Certainly looks like it wants to reload out west...maybe some more action in KC by evening time. Looks like the now T warned supercell could have a very good unstable environment to thrive in this afternoon into the evening. Looks compact on radar and not like it wants to blow out anytime soon. And what is it with that Cawker City-Beloit area this year in NC Kansas. The new "Harper" of the north LOL ??

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree with Brian, I think we will see re-fire and a better possibility of intense supercells. Right now there is a cu field developing in SE Kansas. We will wait another 30-45 minutes and continue to see how things play out before possibly heading out again. If we can get a storm on an outflow boundary close to those backed winds in SE Kansas the tornadic potential is there.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

SE/KS-NE/OK

The cape is over 5000, LI-13, LFC 1500 meters in Tulsa at 5:00 PM. The OFB is SE KS moving SW you would think that something very bad going to happen. The OFB should pop very soon in SE-KS.

 

[Brett Adair]

Looks like a very good differential heating boundary in the area of the backed surface wind fields. This coupled with the extreme instability should create some explosive development over the next hour or so across SE KS. The activity should push SEward, but wind fields are still a little weak into Oklahoma in the 0-6km level. Would like to see some better winds within that level, but steepening lapse rates will make for some prolific hailers I'm sure. These storms shouldn't be moving very fast unless we get a "forward push" from some sort of meso-high as we did with the storms in Missouri this afternoon.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Interesting day. So far the big serial derecho that SPC and most others were forecasting busted big time. The best cells are mostly in the SW Kansas to TX panhandle area- with obs like 99/59! Not tornadic to be sure, but probably very good from a structure standpoint.
I went to the TX panhandle yesterday, today I did not...doh!

So I think that a lot of folks were looking at the NAM with its very strong UVV signal in forecasting the big MCS- and obviously that was wrong, at least so far.

 

[Michael Ratliff]

Looks like steve miller tx is on a nice wall cloud with multiple spin ups !! In Ok panhandle !

 

[David Wagener]

SPC DY1 Mod pretty much I-40 north in Oklahoma now. SW KS cluster continues to look mean hail wise, but only 0.88 reported in so far SW of ICT in Kingman County.

Matt Hughes is moving into the storm in Kingman County, KS now: http://thestormreport.com/livetrack.php/