6/14/07 FCST: OK/TX

[Billy Griffin]

Another unique and complex forecast for today, much as yesterday.

Flow is quite weak, but where skies can clear, CAPE values may actually exceed yesterday. However, forcing will be weaker, unless an outflow boundary or two may enhance surface convergence. And as with yesterday, any surface interaction we can get just might yield something. Flash flooding will also be a big concern from Norman south into northern Texas.

If I can manage to sneak away from the office today, I might make a trek down Hwy 81. between Chickasha and Duncan areas. If anything, maybe get some lightning shots. This one's close to home, so why not?

 

[Gabe Garfield]

While the setup today may not have great potential, I am cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a brief tornado or two near the outflow boundary. Heating on the north side of the boundary is commencing in earnest, as mid-upper level cloudiness continues to push northward. Surface winds in the vicinity of the boundary are quite backed, much as they were yesterday.

Unfortunately, flow today is somewhat weaker than it was yesterday and CAPE isn't as impressive as yesterday. However, given the large surface vorticity associated with the low center and the outflow boundary and the reasonably high 0-3 km CAPE, there might be just enough tilting/stretching of vorticity to get a tornado.

Gabe