Jason A.C. Brock
HARD TO NAIL DOWN CHAE TARGETS WITH SUCH A POTENTIAL LARGE EWARM SECTOR AND THIS NW FLOW ALOFT. MY BEST GUSS WOULD TO LOOK FOR DRYLINE, FRONTAL AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS AFTERNOON IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS AND PERHAS EVEN KANSAS. ALOF OF AREAS FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOW INTO NC OK HAVE BEEN TURNED OVER.
This leads me to believe some area that are in the slight risk may not have a chance for severe storsm or maybe just atrong storms. Finding these areas withh be hard. One outflow could come from the Texas South Plains West Texas & Texas Rolling Plains mcs and effect central Texas.....or rolll north along the red river. The MCS nor rollinginto NC OK will likelt do the same ....but wherE? Somewherre similiar to 6/16 in W OK or more like yesterday in far Western parts of Texas.
I myself can see an area along the red river where perhaps two boundaries collide and dont forget the front and or dryline. i think there will be some high slope activity in Western Kansas but I am looking at Oklahoma and Western ito NC TX. Anywhere as far North as I-40 in OK and anywhere as far South as I-20 IN tx. The dryline will be a player but with the help of upslope action it seems...so they somrs may be a bit too far West to drive for NW flow aloft storms....altho there has been some amazing NW flow storms this week with nice structure cells. I wish I could have chased few more of these days but Western OK on 6/16 Made up for it. Ill chase today with a preliminary huge targer of Abiline to Altus to OKC. i SHOULD GO TO NW OK but if we get to aroudn I-40 Near Sayre or hobart or CALINTON areas WE MAY decide to head North if the southern cap is too streong and or the atmosphere has been too overturned by morning MCS.
My nowcaster khow who they are and if I give ya a call before We head out. We wil not head out however until 11am earliest. If models show large areas of low dews and cooler overturned air....we might jsut wait for an MCS to rollin and hope for lightning pic. Watch out for high winds along and East of 1-35 till noon and perhasp as far South as the Red River this morning till noon speasking of MCS.Storms could have winds to 75 mph and nickel sized hail along with frequent lightning and some localized flooding in OK on OK morning commutes to work etc.
Or we may stay home and hom The Wichita Falls area has a nice backyard storm. Capes and supercell pontial look greak or at least ok in Lawton and Wichita Falls but the convt. Temo is from 104-106. Maybe it will weaken with a boudary hangin around.
Wichita Falls is too complacent about storms these days.....they need a bit of a slap in the face. Just a nice warned stor like Wilbarger got but no lives or people hurt. Just some downed power poiles and and some old sheds that need to be replaced anyways and few powerpoles they can fix in 2 seconds.
Anyways im hoping for on turned over atmosphere and some outflow boudaries with ful sun and juicy unstable air along then. Favorably Between I-40 IN OK & N OF I-20 IN TX...AND west of I-35 in both lol.
This leads me to believe some area that are in the slight risk may not have a chance for severe storsm or maybe just atrong storms. Finding these areas withh be hard. One outflow could come from the Texas South Plains West Texas & Texas Rolling Plains mcs and effect central Texas.....or rolll north along the red river. The MCS nor rollinginto NC OK will likelt do the same ....but wherE? Somewherre similiar to 6/16 in W OK or more like yesterday in far Western parts of Texas.
I myself can see an area along the red river where perhaps two boundaries collide and dont forget the front and or dryline. i think there will be some high slope activity in Western Kansas but I am looking at Oklahoma and Western ito NC TX. Anywhere as far North as I-40 in OK and anywhere as far South as I-20 IN tx. The dryline will be a player but with the help of upslope action it seems...so they somrs may be a bit too far West to drive for NW flow aloft storms....altho there has been some amazing NW flow storms this week with nice structure cells. I wish I could have chased few more of these days but Western OK on 6/16 Made up for it. Ill chase today with a preliminary huge targer of Abiline to Altus to OKC. i SHOULD GO TO NW OK but if we get to aroudn I-40 Near Sayre or hobart or CALINTON areas WE MAY decide to head North if the southern cap is too streong and or the atmosphere has been too overturned by morning MCS.
My nowcaster khow who they are and if I give ya a call before We head out. We wil not head out however until 11am earliest. If models show large areas of low dews and cooler overturned air....we might jsut wait for an MCS to rollin and hope for lightning pic. Watch out for high winds along and East of 1-35 till noon and perhasp as far South as the Red River this morning till noon speasking of MCS.Storms could have winds to 75 mph and nickel sized hail along with frequent lightning and some localized flooding in OK on OK morning commutes to work etc.
Or we may stay home and hom The Wichita Falls area has a nice backyard storm. Capes and supercell pontial look greak or at least ok in Lawton and Wichita Falls but the convt. Temo is from 104-106. Maybe it will weaken with a boudary hangin around.
Wichita Falls is too complacent about storms these days.....they need a bit of a slap in the face. Just a nice warned stor like Wilbarger got but no lives or people hurt. Just some downed power poiles and and some old sheds that need to be replaced anyways and few powerpoles they can fix in 2 seconds.
Anyways im hoping for on turned over atmosphere and some outflow boudaries with ful sun and juicy unstable air along then. Favorably Between I-40 IN OK & N OF I-20 IN TX...AND west of I-35 in both lol.
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