6/13/04 FCST: MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES

MDT risk for tomorrow, looks like a pretty good chance for severe weather, though models have been somewhat inconsistant. Tornado threat looks to be in IL/southwestward, with the Great Lakes region probably experiencing more of an evening/overnight intense MCS/Derecho.

Robert
 
Well, looking at the 12Z and 18Z models, things seem to be going on track.

For the Great Lakes area...Trough swinging through during the afternoon, with CAPEs off modified ETA soundings for a more reasonable parcel of 83/68F indicates about 2750J/KG at 21Z. DTX and GRR seem to be "blowing off" the severe weather threat, particularly GRR, but I think quite the opposite (Actually, DTX goes on to mention how Monday looks like a bigger threat, and I don't see hardly any threat! - Moderate CAPE, light low level winds). For tomorrow...Low and mid level wind fields are between 30-50KNTS, with good directional shear in the lowest 0-3km, along the "warm front". Trough swings through in the afternoon/evening hours with good low/mid level RH and decent VV's, I see storms developing.

If one goes by the 18Z FSL DEV RUC, the Great Lakes would be in for a real treat, with CAPE approaching the upper 3000'sJ/KG, with a nice SFC wave developing along the trough...Which backs the flow a bit, and allows helicity to climb into the mid 400's. ETA shows no sign of this, but the FSL RUC does have better resolution, but I still think >3000J/KG CAPE is overdone, as well as the helicity.

I any case, the threat for severe thunderstorms looks pretty good tomorrow, with a decent potential for a few isolated tornadoes.

Robert
 
SPC has lower Michigan in a slight risk, 5 percent tornado probability

NWS DTX AFD and HWO mentions there is risk of isolated tornadoes later today
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDTX/0406130756.fxus63.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDTX/0406130919.flus43.html

NWS GRR AFD mention isolated tornadoes not out of the question.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/0406130732.fxus63.html

NWS GRR HWO not yet, as of 545 am EDT, check time and date
http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.flus43.KGRR.html

Will wait to see what the 13z and 1630z Day 1 will say, quite often
I seen a reasonable good chase day in Michigan disappear, I wish
today will have some excitement for once.

Will at least get out to chase today, been a trying week, with my 75
year old father falling in the kitchen, having a shortness of breath test
done at the hospital and is now walking with the aid of a cane. I do not
have the opportunities like others to chase the plains freely at will.

Father comes first before chasing. I have missed many outbreaks
over the last few years and have been restricted to chasing boring
West Michigan, very frustrated not being able to chase the Plains.

Mike
 
Yeah, I am limited to just MI, at least for this year anyway, so I'm hoping...

Read the AFD from DTX, and can't help but notice this -
I WILL HIT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING VERY HARD IN THE HWO GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

The 06Z ETA is looking pretty good, with close to 50 knts at 500mb by 00Z Mon, atop >2500J/KG of CAPE. DTX AFD shows some concern for tornado potential, since winds may be a bit more backed than the ETA suggests.

Robert
 
Well, I think GRR changed their minds a bit when the MOD risk got put out. They are thinking large hail and winds with a chance for an isolated tornado or "two" :lol:

I'm thinking it will be over in the Saginaw/Flint area as has been the trend lately, but we could see our share up here and down to the south near Kalamazoo. Already to 70 degrees and 66 dewpoint here in Big Rapids.

tim
 
It sure is looking good though, as you said Tim, I would target areas around Flint and westward. SPC has a 15% tornado threat for that area, with a 10% threat for significant (F2) or greater. Local climatology would also suggest the Flint area - Genesee/Lapeer counties have had a combined total of 17 significant tornadoes in the past 50 years, with a fair number of those being particularly strong, F3, and 3 or 4 violent tornadoes (F4 or higher). Also of note, the stronger tornadoes all occured in June...

Good news is, those areas are much less populated than areas like Grand Rapids or Detroit...

Currently, here east of Pontiac, havn't seen a speck of sunshine yet! Looking at the VIS loop, every location outside of my local area seem to have sun...Hoping these low level clouds will burn off. They are probably a result of intense moisture advection...Td has risen 5-8F in the past couple hours!

Here is the link to DTX's TOR climatology page (couldn't locate GRR's) - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=torstat

Robert
 
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