6/12/04 FCST: C Plains

[Amos Magliocco]

For forecast discussions of severe weather potential on 6-12-2004.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Both the 00Z eta and 00Z RUC show a great deal of instability will be in place across the KS/MO region by early tomorrow morning, and with a strong cap overhead there could be some really outrageous CAPE values by afternoon. In addition, there will be an outflow boundary from the current convection somewhere near an MKC-EMP line. With 35 kt westerlies aloft, a 35 kt southerly LLJ, an outflow boundary and MLCAPE 4000-5000, there is certainly a lot of potential for significant/damaging supercells. "Virtual" target is Ottawa, KS.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Kevin, you not going to be able to go tomorrow?......We are most likely taking a buddy of mine's Jeep in the REU caravan and we should have an extra seat.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Tomorrow looks pretty good as far as tornado potential goes... Mid 70 Tds should be located east of the dryline, with a nice dryline bulge in southcentral KS by 0z. CAPEs indicate an explosive atmosphere will be present, with 4000-5000 SBCAPE. Additionally, a nice 850mb LLJ and backed sfc flow east of the bulge will yield favorable shear profile for tornadoes. Given extreme instability and ETA-progged 250+ helicity east of the DL, we could see a strong tornado or two... relatively weak mid level flow, I would think, should preclude the risk of long-track tornadoes, but the combo of nice shear and extreme CAPE could yield a strong tornado... I like the are south of SAL to PNC east of the bulge... Near ICT...

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

No Lance, I'm scheduled to be at WFO Norman tomorrow. Good luck!

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Alright, well tomorrow looks like a far North OK/ Southern KS day for me. After pouring over model data and sounding data, I have finally found a forecast sounding that really catches my eye with a good combination of CAPE, Helicity, and directional shear:

Ponca City, OK at 4pm
[Broken External Image]:http://weather.admin.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/1271.GIF

If that verifies, we could see very good tornado potential tomorrow in far northern OK. Helicity values seem to be maximized in that region with CAPE values near 4700.

My 1130pm chase target: Wellington, KS then moving south and east from there.

 

[David Schuttler]

Would like to stay out of Harper County, Ks. this time around

 

[Tony Laubach]

Looking at things tomorrow and for the first time this year, I actually groaned in disappointment.. I'm taking the weekend to (financially) recover, so I will be unable to return to where I've scored so well this year.. I noticed Harper County being mentioned as a place they'd rather not go! :lol: Truth be told, I'd be living there this season after May 12/29; and using my "scientific" approach, I would say my virtual target would be between Medicine Lodge and I-35 someplace along Hwy. 160. CAPE and shear look very good; plenty of moisture to work with and hopefully history can repeat for those out and about.. honestly wouldn't venture far from Wichita, though.. but that's just me.. I would enjoy my lunch in Newton at the truck stop (with WiFi), then head off from there when things warrented. Good luck to everyone out and about tomorrow! Hope Kansas keeps its attitude well for ya!

 

[Justin McCauliffe]

I don't really have anything else to add. The reason I'm posting this, however, is to ask if anyone would be available to nowcast for me. If you can/want to please PM me. I'll most likely be heading out no later than 1pm. I also live in Manhattan. So, if any of you are going to be through my area and wouldn't mind having a newbie tag along, PM me. :wink:

 

[Shane Adams]

East Kansas looks to be a sure bet somewhere, right now I'm favoring the area just east of ICT, for best combo of 500/250mb winds. I'm somewhat puzzled over the consistent void of 250 winds just west of Emporia (18Z run also had this), but we'll work around it. Also a bit concerned about the cool 700 temps, but the 850 cap should be strong enough to insure some isolated development.

Awaiting the arrival of Graham and David, then we're headed to ICT to play it from there. Target as of now would be anywhere within a 50 mile radius of ICT, favoring east.

 

[mrobinson]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
East Kansas looks to be a sure bet somewhere, right now I'm favoring the area just east of ICT, for best combo of 500/250mb winds. I'm somewhat puzzled over the consistent void of 250 winds just west of Emporia (18Z run also had this), but we'll work around it. Also a bit concerned about the cool 700 temps, but the 850 cap should be strong enough to insure some isolated development.

Awaiting the arrival of Graham and David, then we're headed to ICT to play it from there. Target as of now would be anywhere within a 50 mile radius of ICT, favoring east.

glad you got ahold of them.. maybe we'll see ya out there.

I'm heading to Lincoln in the A.M. to meet back up with David Smackievelli Fogal, his buddy Ross, Roger and Elke Edwards and Rich Thompson and heading for SC KS. Hopefully tomorrow will bring us more luck than today did as what we saw was brief and quickly rain wrapped.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Setup is nice, eastern Kansas looks good along with SC KS. I just got back Thursday from a 1300 mile long trip on my vacation to Mt. Rushmore and elsewhere and back so not 100% sure if I'm ready to hit the road again... but if I do I'm gonna try staying south or southeast of ICT - somewhere with good road networks in all direction.

I'll be waking up at 7 AM and make my final decision, if I do go out... hope to see some of you out there.

Good luck!

 

[Tim Marshall]

NE KS and SE NE

Target is between Salina, KS and Beatrice, NE in zone of backed surface winds. I like the dry punch coming in to Wichita-Newton late today. Plenty of CAPE in eastern KS. Upper jets are lagging though. Hope convection doesn't go early like the past two days. TM

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Convection starting already

It's only 8:30 a.m. CDT and convection has started already in Northern KS. A couple of storms have fired up east of Phillipsburg, KS and are moving to the NE. There's another spot of action going on in Southern KS as well. Will have to wait and see if the NWS post a WW for this A.M. It could be a long day for some chasers today!! 8) LJK.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well, I really liked SPC's 1am Outlook a lot better than the 8am they just put out, but I still think regardless it could be a really good day. I still like my original target of Wellington, KS or just north of there into the ICT area as this will be the most likely area for more discrete activity. Should be heading out in just a little while.