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6/12/04 FCST: C Plains

Both the 00Z eta and 00Z RUC show a great deal of instability will be in place across the KS/MO region by early tomorrow morning, and with a strong cap overhead there could be some really outrageous CAPE values by afternoon. In addition, there will be an outflow boundary from the current convection somewhere near an MKC-EMP line. With 35 kt westerlies aloft, a 35 kt southerly LLJ, an outflow boundary and MLCAPE 4000-5000, there is certainly a lot of potential for significant/damaging supercells. "Virtual" target is Ottawa, KS.
 
Kevin, you not going to be able to go tomorrow?......We are most likely taking a buddy of mine's Jeep in the REU caravan and we should have an extra seat.
 
Tomorrow looks pretty good as far as tornado potential goes... Mid 70 Tds should be located east of the dryline, with a nice dryline bulge in southcentral KS by 0z. CAPEs indicate an explosive atmosphere will be present, with 4000-5000 SBCAPE. Additionally, a nice 850mb LLJ and backed sfc flow east of the bulge will yield favorable shear profile for tornadoes. Given extreme instability and ETA-progged 250+ helicity east of the DL, we could see a strong tornado or two... relatively weak mid level flow, I would think, should preclude the risk of long-track tornadoes, but the combo of nice shear and extreme CAPE could yield a strong tornado... I like the are south of SAL to PNC east of the bulge... Near ICT...
 
No Lance, I'm scheduled to be at WFO Norman tomorrow. Good luck!
 
Alright, well tomorrow looks like a far North OK/ Southern KS day for me. After pouring over model data and sounding data, I have finally found a forecast sounding that really catches my eye with a good combination of CAPE, Helicity, and directional shear:

Ponca City, OK at 4pm
[Broken External Image]:http://weather.admin.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/1271.GIF

If that verifies, we could see very good tornado potential tomorrow in far northern OK. Helicity values seem to be maximized in that region with CAPE values near 4700.

My 1130pm chase target: Wellington, KS then moving south and east from there.
 
Looking at things tomorrow and for the first time this year, I actually groaned in disappointment.. I'm taking the weekend to (financially) recover, so I will be unable to return to where I've scored so well this year.. I noticed Harper County being mentioned as a place they'd rather not go! :lol: Truth be told, I'd be living there this season after May 12/29; and using my "scientific" approach, I would say my virtual target would be between Medicine Lodge and I-35 someplace along Hwy. 160. CAPE and shear look very good; plenty of moisture to work with and hopefully history can repeat for those out and about.. honestly wouldn't venture far from Wichita, though.. but that's just me.. I would enjoy my lunch in Newton at the truck stop (with WiFi), then head off from there when things warrented. Good luck to everyone out and about tomorrow! Hope Kansas keeps its attitude well for ya!
 
I don't really have anything else to add. The reason I'm posting this, however, is to ask if anyone would be available to nowcast for me. If you can/want to please PM me. I'll most likely be heading out no later than 1pm. I also live in Manhattan. So, if any of you are going to be through my area and wouldn't mind having a newbie tag along, PM me. :wink:
 
East Kansas looks to be a sure bet somewhere, right now I'm favoring the area just east of ICT, for best combo of 500/250mb winds. I'm somewhat puzzled over the consistent void of 250 winds just west of Emporia (18Z run also had this), but we'll work around it. Also a bit concerned about the cool 700 temps, but the 850 cap should be strong enough to insure some isolated development.

Awaiting the arrival of Graham and David, then we're headed to ICT to play it from there. Target as of now would be anywhere within a 50 mile radius of ICT, favoring east.
 
Originally posted by Shane Adams
East Kansas looks to be a sure bet somewhere, right now I'm favoring the area just east of ICT, for best combo of 500/250mb winds. I'm somewhat puzzled over the consistent void of 250 winds just west of Emporia (18Z run also had this), but we'll work around it. Also a bit concerned about the cool 700 temps, but the 850 cap should be strong enough to insure some isolated development.

Awaiting the arrival of Graham and David, then we're headed to ICT to play it from there. Target as of now would be anywhere within a 50 mile radius of ICT, favoring east.
glad you got ahold of them.. maybe we'll see ya out there.

I'm heading to Lincoln in the A.M. to meet back up with David Smackievelli Fogal, his buddy Ross, Roger and Elke Edwards and Rich Thompson and heading for SC KS. Hopefully tomorrow will bring us more luck than today did as what we saw was brief and quickly rain wrapped.
 
Setup is nice, eastern Kansas looks good along with SC KS. I just got back Thursday from a 1300 mile long trip on my vacation to Mt. Rushmore and elsewhere and back so not 100% sure if I'm ready to hit the road again... but if I do I'm gonna try staying south or southeast of ICT - somewhere with good road networks in all direction.

I'll be waking up at 7 AM and make my final decision, if I do go out... hope to see some of you out there.

Good luck!
 
NE KS and SE NE

Target is between Salina, KS and Beatrice, NE in zone of backed surface winds. I like the dry punch coming in to Wichita-Newton late today. Plenty of CAPE in eastern KS. Upper jets are lagging though. Hope convection doesn't go early like the past two days. TM
 
Convection starting already

It's only 8:30 a.m. CDT and convection has started already in Northern KS. A couple of storms have fired up east of Phillipsburg, KS and are moving to the NE. There's another spot of action going on in Southern KS as well. Will have to wait and see if the NWS post a WW for this A.M. It could be a long day for some chasers today!! 8) LJK.
 
Well, I really liked SPC's 1am Outlook a lot better than the 8am they just put out, but I still think regardless it could be a really good day. I still like my original target of Wellington, KS or just north of there into the ICT area as this will be the most likely area for more discrete activity. Should be heading out in just a little while.
 
And now after looking at the 12z model runs, I can see why SPC has slightly condensed their hatched area. Winds at the mid levels are, well, poor at best, with only about 20 kts at 500mb forecasted, not to mention forecast soundings don't back the surface flow as much as the 00z runs had last night. So, I think my excitement level has been taken down a notch and my expectations aren't nearly as high as they were, but, if we get in the right spot, we could see 1 or 2. I still like the south end charlie play, just to the SE of the triple pt. Hopefully, some outflow boundaries from last night's convection can enhance the shear a bit, it would be a big help.
 
I agree w/ Lance -- the Kansas target looks a little more marginal. However, I think the SW OK/NW TX target is looking more and more interesting (EDIT-SPC has upgraded that area to MDT risk).

The shortwave trough south of Yuma, AZ looks a lot stronger than progged on WV loops to me (note this was not sampled well by upper air stations this morning). So, I think the cap breaking in scattered spots all along the dryline over all of OK and TX is a virtual certainty. The WSM profiler has 30-35 kt WSW flow at 6km that should overspread the dryline east of LBB later today.

So, there may be a wide variety of targets to choose from, but it may be a needle in the haystack.

Forgot to mention -- don't panic at the 12Z Norman sounding. That was a local "hole" in the moisture field associated with the heatburst over Wichita Falls late last night. Looking at the mesonet, that hole appears to be mixing out.
 
HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

Certainly looking up in the 1630z. I don't know where I would go if chasing, but anywhere from a Manhattan to Wichita line should be pretty darn good. My morning virtual target was El Dorado, KS....but now I would have to move that just a bit farther W.

It appears the ICT area has mid 80's temps, and low 70's dewpoints with a nice 20 knt southeasterly wind as of 1643z.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/di...on=ict&nplots=1

Also, here's a SKEW-T from the Topeka, KS area....not bad at all with the extreme levels of CAPE forecast.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/top.gif


 
Re: NE KS and SE NE

Originally posted by Tim Marshall
Target is between Salina, KS and Beatrice, NE in zone of backed surface winds. I like the dry punch coming in to Wichita-Newton late today. Plenty of CAPE in eastern KS. Upper jets are lagging though. Hope convection doesn't go early like the past two days. TM

Yep, that was the same idea I had Tim. Since you were thinking the same thing I guess I don't feel so bad now to not be on south of Wichita earlier. Later in the afternoon my severe warned storm north of Salina simply evaporated as I watched it. Some have said they thought the southern storm activity cut off our storms further north and killed them. Any thoughts?
 
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