For forecast discussions of severe weather potential on 6-12-2004.
glad you got ahold of them.. maybe we'll see ya out there.Originally posted by Shane Adams
East Kansas looks to be a sure bet somewhere, right now I'm favoring the area just east of ICT, for best combo of 500/250mb winds. I'm somewhat puzzled over the consistent void of 250 winds just west of Emporia (18Z run also had this), but we'll work around it. Also a bit concerned about the cool 700 temps, but the 850 cap should be strong enough to insure some isolated development.
Awaiting the arrival of Graham and David, then we're headed to ICT to play it from there. Target as of now would be anywhere within a 50 mile radius of ICT, favoring east.
HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
Originally posted by Tim Marshall
Target is between Salina, KS and Beatrice, NE in zone of backed surface winds. I like the dry punch coming in to Wichita-Newton late today. Plenty of CAPE in eastern KS. Upper jets are lagging though. Hope convection doesn't go early like the past two days. TM