6/12/04 FCST: C Plains

[Lance Maxwell]

And now after looking at the 12z model runs, I can see why SPC has slightly condensed their hatched area. Winds at the mid levels are, well, poor at best, with only about 20 kts at 500mb forecasted, not to mention forecast soundings don't back the surface flow as much as the 00z runs had last night. So, I think my excitement level has been taken down a notch and my expectations aren't nearly as high as they were, but, if we get in the right spot, we could see 1 or 2. I still like the south end charlie play, just to the SE of the triple pt. Hopefully, some outflow boundaries from last night's convection can enhance the shear a bit, it would be a big help.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

I agree w/ Lance -- the Kansas target looks a little more marginal. However, I think the SW OK/NW TX target is looking more and more interesting (EDIT-SPC has upgraded that area to MDT risk).

The shortwave trough south of Yuma, AZ looks a lot stronger than progged on WV loops to me (note this was not sampled well by upper air stations this morning). So, I think the cap breaking in scattered spots all along the dryline over all of OK and TX is a virtual certainty. The WSM profiler has 30-35 kt WSW flow at 6km that should overspread the dryline east of LBB later today.

So, there may be a wide variety of targets to choose from, but it may be a needle in the haystack.

Forgot to mention -- don't panic at the 12Z Norman sounding. That was a local "hole" in the moisture field associated with the heatburst over Wichita Falls late last night. Looking at the mesonet, that hole appears to be mixing out.

 

[George Tincher]

HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

Certainly looking up in the 1630z. I don't know where I would go if chasing, but anywhere from a Manhattan to Wichita line should be pretty darn good. My morning virtual target was El Dorado, KS....but now I would have to move that just a bit farther W.

It appears the ICT area has mid 80's temps, and low 70's dewpoints with a nice 20 knt southeasterly wind as of 1643z.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/di...on=ict&nplots=1

Also, here's a SKEW-T from the Topeka, KS area....not bad at all with the extreme levels of CAPE forecast.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/top.gif

 

[Bill Tabor]

Re: NE KS and SE NE

Originally posted by Tim Marshall
Target is between Salina, KS and Beatrice, NE in zone of backed surface winds. I like the dry punch coming in to Wichita-Newton late today. Plenty of CAPE in eastern KS. Upper jets are lagging though. Hope convection doesn't go early like the past two days. TM

Yep, that was the same idea I had Tim. Since you were thinking the same thing I guess I don't feel so bad now to not be on south of Wichita earlier. Later in the afternoon my severe warned storm north of Salina simply evaporated as I watched it. Some have said they thought the southern storm activity cut off our storms further north and killed them. Any thoughts?