6/11/08 FCST: KS/NE/SD/MO/IA/MN

[Brian Stertz]

Forecast update

I have been looking over the RUC and latest SPC Mesoscale sites. From what I am gathering after review of the data, it looks like E.Nebraska/W. Iowa will go first with other scattered serious supercells likely to fire from SE Nebraska and NE Kansas down into C.Kansas. My target at this point for my chase at least is the area around Hiawatha KS. Nice instability poke heading up that way, plus the cap would be somewhat weakened by the overnight convection in that area...for some isolated explosive development. I am becoming more convinced this may end up a nice June chase.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice storm fire on the south edge of that cloud cover running sw-ne through eastern NE, and move towards Omaha. The morning storms also left some backing in a line going nw from nw MO. I imagine where that intersects that sw-ne cloud line could be a good spot in a couple hours.

 

[Derek Weston]

Really like N central IA to S central MN if we could build the instability...however, looking pretty questionable.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I am in the same boat as Hollingshead. If I was chasing today my target would be extremely easy to pick. I would park it just west of Omaha (maybe Fremont) and sit back and wait. I think we'll get a good tornadic supercell coming through the Omaha area later this evening. I am regretting not chasing now.
edit - I better add something relevant to meteorology so that I don't get another infraction, therefore this area is the best compromise of thermodynamics and the better directional shear IMO (decent 850-500 crossover, and good SRH).

 

[Ryan Pfeifer]

I think the best bet for tornados today would be Sioux City, IA to Sioux Falls, SD. That seems to be where storms will have the best SRH's to work with. Also, the 17z RUC hodographs for that area had the best shape. If I had more money or if I thought things were going to be discreet for a decent amount of time I'd be headed up that way. Even if things go linear right away I would imagine there will still be some tornados up there.

-edit: Well, maybe I'll head up anyways.

 

[afischer]

I'm up in Sioux City. Still stuck with 5000 ft stratocu, though clearing looks a little better on vis just to my west. The diffuse pseudo OFB/WF seems to be mixing toward or through the area as northwest IA has finally warmed up to 75-79F. The 18Z Omaha RAOB and 1730/1800Z Sioux City TAMDARs show a weird capping layer aloft centered near 600mb. Hopefully this is just the remnant EML shifting through the area rather than an indication of shortwave ridging. Regardless, one would think capping is becoming pretty weak along the cold front, especially down toward Omaha where temps are in the low 80s.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Sitting on the IA side of Plattsmouth NE, wondering exactly where I want to be....since the stupid bridge here is closed to NE. At least I think that is what the sign at Bellevue said. That and what the NE roads site says. So if you are in se NE, I'd think about that one. Next options north are around city traffic. Makes me not sure I even want to be in se NE between Omaha and Nebraska City. It would quickly suck if something fires ahead of teh cold front in this eastern cu field, near where that nw/se wind shift line was. I see the cold front is getting more and more cu now. This lack of a crossing is getting really annoying.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

In Wahoo right now; CU field is really congesting beneath this OFB. Looks like it won't be long before it collides with the CF. Thinking I might want to get east a bit, though I too am a bit worried about the bridge cross. I don't mind crossing at Omaha, but how's the 5 oclock rush there? Stop and go or just a bit slow? Don't want to get caught in stop and go. There's a crossing at Blair, I think -- never done it before though.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Initiation underway up in NW Iowa. Looks like the CF may be about to ignite. Even a couple of light reflectivities down around Concordia, Kansas.

Ryan - if you want to avoid OAX traffic, your options are either north to Blair or south to Neb City (if the Plattsmouth bridge is really closed - that sucks). Brian Stertz and I are going to attempt a tail-end charlie intercept around Falls City if at all possible after work. Should be interesting.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Omaha isn't too terrible, it's just that 80/680 split part about 4 miles before you get to 80 to go east that can suck. Not as bad as the morning, but still not great at night. Omaha has plenty of lanes once you go east on 80 it shouldn't be bad. Shouldn't. Blair route is good if it's not out of the way.

I'm in the same spot, likely going to head back north now I think, sine it appear we may be gettign initation down here now. Wish initiation was a little closer to Omaha. Nothing east of the cold front looks like it has any hope still, so may as well head west(even if it's going to be a pain without this bridge).