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6/10/05 FCST: Panhandles

I decided to go ahead and post this for whats in the TALK or lack there of & b/c SPC has gone MODERATE RISK for Day 3. Now tell me boys when was the last time you saw a mod risk for day 3. And when was the last time you saw a mod risk for day 3 verify?

As far as fcst go, Ive only but glanced at model data. Trying to figure out which has the best handle on things, but from the looks of things, we all might be in for a game versus the caprock, which I personally love playing. David Drummond, where are ya? :D I think west texas is sooo beautiful.
 
I didn't think that they could issue a moderate risk on day3 according to policy. I guess I must be incorrect, or they made this a special ocassion.
I'll have to look at the model data later on today, but so far this year I think the SPC has been going a little overboard.... I still hope we get some nice storms to catch this season back up to normal.

One thing is for sure, this system will be fairly potent wherever it ends up, and as long as the other parameters fall into place, I could definitely see this being one of the bigger days of the year.
 
I'm here....and watching closely...and doing my best not to get my hopes up too much. :) Just did a quick run over the ETA and GFS....lot's of agreement there right now. Some of the best surface winds I have seen this year predicted. I would like to see the 500mb winds just a tad stronger, just a tad. :wink:

All in all it appears that the Texas Panhandle is due for a good raking over the coals on Friday though. If this pans out, with the event we had a few weeks ago, I think we can safely say that the Texas Panhandle is finally back in the severe weather game again!
 
After looking at the 12Z ETA, here's my attempt at a fcst:

Target: Buffalo, OK

Reasoning:

1. Closer to the nose of the 500mb jetlet;

2. Best juxtaposition of backed sfc flow and veered mid- and upper-flow;
a. Best backed sfc winds are farther N, around GBD-P28.
However…250 and 500mb winds in that area are more sly than
swly.
b. TX Panhandle sfc winds are progged to be around 170-180, nwrn
OK 160-170
c. Stronger sfc flow in w-cntrl/nwrn OK

3. Closer to the progged dryline bulge

Concerns:

1. Tropical system: Progged sfc trajectories would bring somewhat drier air into the srn plains...not the low 70s we saw last weekend;

2. Cap strength: Will there be enough convergence to break it?

Overall, it looks like a pretty good day to chase.

JB
 
Friday...

Looks like SPC is kinda tired of how the spring has gone too...lol:

CONSIDERING THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY INVOLVED IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE DAY 3 PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PRESENTS A MORE CLASSIC AND PREDICTABLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

With high CAPE, sfc forcing along the Caprock, excellent thick, deep layer moisture, and upper level support...This looks at least at the moment as a classic setup for the panhandles. With the dryline, storms should be very contrasted and beautiful. :)

Scott Lincoln wrote:
I didn't think that they could issue a moderate risk on day3 according to policy...

When the Day 3 first became a standard (it used to be just an "experimental product" back in 2000), I actually remember a high risk forecast for an April outbreak. However, I don't remember if that was in '02 or '03. The forecast did verify, but less for the tornadoes as much as for outbreak of other SVR.

As I recall that outbreak was amazing with some tornadic storms moving at 100mph (not kidding). I always thought it would have been appropriate to state, "A tornado warning has been issued for Cherokee County...er...Lincoln County...er SW OK." Fortunately, Friday's storms look like they'll be a BIT slower (motion about 20 based on models attm).
 
Geez im surprised this thread hasnt been responded to since the last response.
Well the Day 1 is out and SPC doesnt like model forecasting of weaking mid level flow as everyone else thought. Ive heard that the GFS has been doing a better job/slightly aggressive w/ this so sounds to me like that one is the best to go on b/c NAM apparently has been doing crappy job.
Turns out moisture will most definately not be a problem due to saturated ground associated w/ tonights convection.
But looks as if main limiting factor here is strength of upper level winds.
Also curious as to how strong cap will be. I dont want a setup tomorrow that's too good where things fire early. A setup similar to today would be just fine.
Well thoughts, ideas, please..............
 
Will have to wait and see tomorrow how ongoing convection this evening will ultimately affect the outcome. With some reservation, I am generally optimistic about moisture. GFS is more agressive, with high CAPE and low LCLs. NAM, however, is not liking the moisture setup at all yet, indicating much lower instability and much higher LCL numbers. As of now, I will continue to place confidence in GFS solution primarily due to the reasons Chris mentions, which causes me to generally like the Liberal area for tomorrow as the location where all ingredients come together nicely - want to be in place by 4:00 p.m. Will be watching data from the road on the way to see how RUC additionally factors in.

As far as other parameters are concerned, 18Z GFS places CAPE bullseye over the KS/OK line near Liberal, in an area with 0-1 km SRH of 315.3 m^2/s^2. 0-1 km EHI does not improve sufficiently until 0Z, when it reaches 6.5. LCL and LFC heights are <1000 and <1500 respectively.

24Z NAM does not improve BL-6 km shear until 0z when it reaches 53 near DDC. 0-1 km SRH will be >200 at this time, 0-1 km EHI will be >3. Very little capping tomorrow, as lid is <1 throughout the panhandles and SW Kansas. Hopefully this will not promote convection that is too much, too early. We'll see - - as of now, tornado threat is somewhat limited due to questions concerning UL winds, but will have to see how things shape up this way tomorrow.
 
As of now I like the looks of N TX panhandle around Perryton, TX. The eta is progging decent speed shear there, though once again the H5 winds are a little weak. However, I think that H5 vort max centered in N TX panhandle will help. H85 temps are a little warm, in the 22c range but H7 and H5 are really cold, making for good lapse rates. If the sfc temps and forcing can overcome the cap good H7 and H5 VV's will make for rapid thunderstorm development. Helecity values are also lacking a bit but perhaps backing sfc winds E of low or maybe an OFB can make to localized enhanced shear and increase tornado probablities. We shall see, but as of now I would target Perryton, TX.
 
a snippet from OUN am AFD

...TROF OVER AZ THIS MORNING IS STILL DIGGING BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS...AND THIS MAY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FORCING/COOLING UNTIL CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. IF THIS HAPPENS...AND LOW LEVELS CAN RECOVER...LOOK FOR HIGHER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THAT COULD INCLUDE A FEW STRONG OR EVEN VIOLENT TORNADOES IF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN BACKED AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN STORMS GOING UP FAIRLY EARLY.
 
Well looked over the models and if you believe the last RUC today will be THE day. However if you believe the ETA(NAM) and to a lesser extent the GFS,look for early initiation/grunge ala May 12 & 13th for those of you that chased those dates and remember (nothing happened for those that dont, but lotta hype).

Having said that, Ive been browsing through the am AFD for DDC, AMA, and MAF. OUN's am AFD is the only one that puts emphasis/heavy wording in tornadoes, others just mention isolated chance in passing.

Also been looking at current data in terms of upper level winds b/c that seems to be the main limiter for today according to talk/discussion.

Here's what Ive found
profiler data:

WSMN5.1hr.gif


JTNT2.1hr.gif


12Z soundings:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/amawindow.html

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/mafwindow.html
 
SPC is following the trend of the other forecast offices (besides OUN) with a limited tornado threat today and potential for very early initiation. Current WV loop indicates main feature is already plowing into W NM as we speak. Convection is ongoing in parts of SW KS and is showing signs the last few frames of strengthening. Additionally, moisture has really been scoured to S of I-40 this morning and recovery is needed north. Do not like the forecasted nearly due S upper level flow either. Many factors need to be sorted out over the next cpl hrs.
 
I was seriously contemplating heading out to Tucumcari and holding steady for the potential afternoon show. After looking at the 12z NAM and current surface obs I have decided to stay put. Looks like the small but potent SW will spread ascent over the panhandles too early for my taste. And I dislike the convection (holding its own) near lubbock and in sw kansas. The 12z nam also severly cuts previous 0Z cape forecast estimates in the moderate risk area.

Overall, its not a terrible setup with numerous boundaries to play on and a strong shtwv moving across the panhandles in sync with strong mid-june insolation but I'm going to wait for Sunday.
 
I was just about to walk out the door about an hour ago and a friend called and told me to check out the radar before I left. I thought I was going to see some great outflow boundaries not clusters of strong thunderstorms. Let's just say I opted out of the nine hour drive to my target. I will wait till Sunday or go to the gulf coast (three hours away) and play with Arlene. Could be interesting if things settle down this morning, but is way to risky for a long drive.
Good luck to anyone that does chase!
 
Hmmmm...what fun, what fun. KAMA sounding this morning is nice...big cap, but 2000 cape. However, a little concerned with these clouds especially considering talk of early initiation. Good thing there is a front around, 'cause the dryline is nowhere to be found in the TX Panhandle. KAMA is not helping with picking out any outflow boundaries.

So today, if we can get a storm to fire somewhere west of AMA and sustain itself and maybe rotate some to move a little right, it might be ok. Given the RUC progs of a LLJ about 18-21Z east of AMA, would like to see a storm move into that environment. While early initiation might be a bad thing for number (as in too many) of storms, I think the SW-NE orientation of the front might actually help if a line of storms goes up and one in the middle decides to make a more easterly track. It'll be an interesting day to say the least.
 
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