Mikey Gribble
EF5
Here is the link to the forecast sounding with the NAM for Falls City, Nebraska, which is the far southeast corner of the state. That is about where the NAM shows convection at after 00Z. There are some pretty solid paramaters there and it is definitely supportive of tornadic supercells. Supercell Potential is 93%, 260m2s2 0-1km SRH and the hodograph is pretty impressive given the strong instability.
Two things stick out a bit. One is LCL heights being moderately high, but definitely managable. The other thing that sticks out like a sore thumb IMO is the 10km SR winds around 5kts. Really... 5kts. The hodograph is sufficiently large, but we may be dealing with some wet storms.
I am still just starting to look things over, but I'm really happy with what I'm seeing so far when consider the crap the NAM was showing earlier.
Two things stick out a bit. One is LCL heights being moderately high, but definitely managable. The other thing that sticks out like a sore thumb IMO is the 10km SR winds around 5kts. Really... 5kts. The hodograph is sufficiently large, but we may be dealing with some wet storms.
I am still just starting to look things over, but I'm really happy with what I'm seeing so far when consider the crap the NAM was showing earlier.