5/8/2006 NOW: KS

[nickgrillo]

I am in Wakeeney, KS -- watching a absolute outflow dominant linear segment to my west (pushing east). Not too bad of a base, but nothing good... Deep-layer shear has improved -- and SPC mesoanalysis shows sbCAPE 1500-2000j/kg in the immediate inflow sector of this storm. Well, gonna take stills I guess LOL... Unreal... I hope something goes in the next couple of hours! Low-level shear is quite crappy right now and the LCLs are quite high (per SPC mesoanalysis), although the base on this storm doesn't look too particularly high -- it's still outflow dominant.

EDIT: Still off I-70 on exit 128... The storm looks even worse now (both personal observation and on radar) LOL...

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Since we have severe weather occuring in more places than just Kansas, why dont we go ahead and change the subject of this thread to reflect that.
Perhaps.... Midwest? or NE, IA, KS?

 

[Kenny Drake]

I know this is more of a DISC than NOW thing but I think the outflow dominant situation has to do with the 500mb winds spilling the downdraft into the inflow. I think the best chance at a tornado right now would be a tail-end charlie. Winds are backing nicely in DDC, hopefully something goes up to the west. I really think though with the southward movement of the surface low the whole line segment is going to keep backbuilding farther SW which is a total disaster for tail-end charlie chases. I should still have some good photo shots... lightning and maybe catch some structure at sunset shortly here, going to head west of DDC.

 

[Rich Thompson]

I know this is more of a DISC than NOW thing but I think the outflow dominant situation has to do with the 500mb winds spilling the downdraft into the inflow. I think the best chance at a tornado right now would be a tail-end charlie. Winds are backing nicely in DDC, hopefully something goes up to the west. I really think though with the southward movement of the surface low the whole line segment is going to keep backbuilding farther SW which is a total disaster for tail-end charlie chases. I should still have some good photo shots... lightning and maybe catch some structure at sunset shortly here, going to head west of DDC.
[/b]

While the midlevel flow isn't terribly strong, I believe today's "failure" has more to do with initiation than anything else. Instead of forming on the weak dryline, all of the initial convection appears to have been forced along the frontal segment in NW KS that was oriented more E-W than N-S. The situation was made worse when outflow from high-based junk in CO overtook the front and dryline. Once you have an established cold pool going and the outflow initiates new storms, the whole mess is likely to continue to grow upscale into a larger MCS/squall line. There may be some small hope for a discrete supercell on the SW end of the line where the cold pool is shallow and storm motion might be able to match that of the boundary, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

It just goes to show that there are very few "clear cut" forecasts that can't be helped or hurt by a multitude of smaller scale factors, many of which are almost impossible to anticipate with any degree of reliability.

Rich T.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Second supercell storm in Iowa for the day has developed a hook at at least mid level rotation on the border of Webster and Humboldt County, Iowa. Storm continues to have estimated hail sizes up to 2.0-2.5" in diameter. Other storms forming in west central Iowa will likely have the same potential for large hail.

 

[samuel stone]

new cell in Kansas moving out of gray county into Ford county. appears to have developed along a wind shift boundary for easterly to north easterly. winds haved backed, 850 mb jet has strengthend yielding
0-1km sr helicity of 300-400 m2/s2, LCL's have lowered, and ML cape of 2000 j/kg remains in place. Latest velocity scans have indicated a strengthening velocity couplet, as it moves into a sig tor of 4. I would not be surprised to see a tornado from this thing as it tracks south of DDC.

EDIT: tornado warning just issued on it, let the late night show begin!

 

[MatthewCarman]

Yeah the severe storms have been everywhere today. The midwest and the south and southeast it seems like one of these areas has been hit every single day this past few weeks with severe weather what an active start to may.

As for the comment on today being a failure I have to disagree check out this warned storm right now:

AT 1126 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEST PENSACOLA...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

Just because there was no tornados does not make it a bust or failure there was still severe storms with large hail and damaging winds across the midwest and southeast. I guess if your only after tornados then you may consider it a bust but if severe weather and alot of it did occur then I dont consider it a bust or failure.

Also when they say a storm is capable of producing winds in essess of 60 mph do they get that from the storm producing winds over 50 mph or do they have a computer or something that tells them the storm structure how high it is etc and tells them it is capable of producing severe weather? I always thought they didnt issue a warning unless severe weather had occured or was occuring. I never knew how they did that.

 

[rdale]

Mod can break off into a new thread...

1) What you posted is not a report or confirmation, but a possibility. You need to look at the storm reports to know if baseballs or 80mph winds occurreed.

2) By "failure" it means a large amount of sevwx was expected, but didn't occur (or happened in different areas.)

3) Wind speed "outlooks" come from radar interpretation, local mesoscale analysis, an idea of what the storms will do that day, spotter reports, and primarily - a well trained meteorologist. There is no computer which does it.

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov has plenty of doppler radar stuff, but it might be a bit advanced.