5/7/2009 FCST OK/TX/KS/MO/IL/AR/KY

[Connor McCrorey]

I'll probably be in Oklahoma tomorrow. Just posted a brief update at blog.texasstormchasers.com

 

[Jason Boggs]

After looking at model data, I have to agree with the SPC in thinking that convection won't fire during the day. Not too much in the way of forcing, and the cap will be fairly strong. Lots of daytime heating along with Td in the 60's will yield high CAPE, but unfortunately it most likely won't be realized.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well I don't know if I am aloud to post little things like this but I hope so. 12z shows something definitely firing in C-NE OK wouldn't mind it, seeing as I wont be making my trip up to Kansas.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

It appears there is some sort of outflow boundary extending nw to se from the Oklahoma/Kansas border north of Ponca City to HWY 412 in eastern Oklahoma. I doubt a storm will be able to develop in this area due to such a warm eml and little forcing, but if a storm could get going along that boundary it could be dynamite. It will probably just be another waste of a great localized setup.

 

[John Farley]

I think Missouri will be the place to be today. RUC, NAM, and GFS all agree on decent instability and good directional shear, although there is some disagreement on how far north and east the best instability will extend. (One possible problem is too much directional shear, if the surface winds stay SE under the WNW upper flow. Surface wind direction is a point of some disagreement among the models.) And all 3 of these models break out precip in the general area between Kansas City and Columbia this afternoon. My current plan is to leave around 1 p.m. and head for the Columbia area, and then adjust as needed from there. Hopefully I will have better luck in MO today than I did yesterday! Also hope the storms don't too quickly move southeast into the jungles and hills around Lake of the Ozarks!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well I know its heating up here quite nicely in Tahlequah, OK 84 last time I looked. I wonder if all this precipitation + crazy evaporation would act as a trigger, is there a name for that? I know of evapotranspiration, but doesnt that have to deal with trees... Ruc Showing NC texas on last run... two lone sups maybe? Doubt it. Just throwing it out there.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tornado Watch NE KS, NW MO, SE NE and SW Iowa until 8pm Central.

Extremely high EHI's and 0-3km helicity over eastern Kansas.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Shower Activities In NE, IA

Currently there are light shower activities passing thru SE NE and SW IA on their way into MO. VIS SAT shows cloud fields developing over eastern KS. A bit early in the afternoon yet. Better have another sip of lemon-flavored ice tea sitting in a shady tree at a park!!

Temps here in Lincoln NE has already risen into the low 80s with dews about 50. There is a stationary front draped across NE and IA with strong winds in Lincoln coming out of the SWS at 20 mph.

Lets take a "wait and see" attitude and see what happens!

Update: Looks like the showers that move thru IA this morning left a pool of cool air. And a outflow boundary was set up running from SE NE into southern IA. That is where the current group of showers are firing up along. LJK.

 

[jshields]

sitting here at work in omaha and was surprised to see the tornado watch go up! i wasn't really thinking there was any chance of storms at all today here locally. i think the forecast called for partly cloudy skies and no storms. at any rate, the focus for the storms that have been firing is an old ofb that shows up pretty clearly on surface obs with ene winds in eastern iowa, and wsw in eastern ne. i don't think the tornado chance is real good in eastern/southeastern ne, bc dews are way too low in the lower 50s, so lcls are over 1500 m's. down in northeast/eastern kansas there are higher dews in the mid 60s advecting norhteast so the tornado chance is much better down there. if i wasn't stuck at work i would definitely head down towards the topeka area.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Hanging out west of Atchison, KS... solid updraft 20 minutes ago got sheared over and completely dissolved once it got too far east into that moisture hole. The good dp's and instability are closing in and we should see few updrafts be able to maintain themselves once they hit that 50kt mid-level jet.

 

[Eric Flescher]

Dangerous storm near Albany, MO

There is a Dangerous storm near Albany, MO indicated on radar and by TV up near Beethany, Mo near the IA border

near 169 and 136 in Gentry county

 

[Jason Bolt]

Not sure if this should be in the NOW thread for Alabama or the FCST thread for MO/KS/OK etc...

I was starting to doubt the 30% hatched area over the eastern half of Kansas BUT sitting here at home (KS/OK/MO junction) watching some very pissed off looking towers explode to my west and south. I kinda cant believe there isn't an MD out yet. Work precludes my chasing very far today but I'm gonna do what I can. Haven't pulled up any data yet but I'd say visually TCU tops to 30K and growing rapidly. Could be interesting for any chasers that dropped this far south of KC.

 

[James Wilson]

U9 by Jameson if tor warned. Almost to Cameron now.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Well here in my neck of the woods (NW Ark) we seem to be well capped still as a weak boundary surges south over my area has tried to fired up a few towers but each just seem to quickly get zapped out and cease to be even in the amount of CAPE that sits above me there just is still too much of a cap and not enough forcing to get stuff going and sustained. Ah, well I am not expecting much and its fairly obvious that if anything does happen to pop it wont until after dark but I guess I am still holding a tiny amount of hope for something to fire up in SE KS and move over into SW and SC MO.

 

[Jeff Duda]

This should probably be part of a "reports" thread, but a few fellow students and I from ISU chased this down south to the IA/MO border and some of us gave up and turned back at about 5 PM due to noting that the storms were outflow dominant. I have my doubts that the TOR warned cell in N MO will actually produce a tornado before outflow knocks out the funnel.

EDIT: after seeing the latest storm reports, I eat my words.