5/5/08 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Van DeWald]

Looks like the potential is starting to increase this day, especially across the high plains. Upper support is still across the southwest US, but models are starting to show some lee cyclone development across southeast Colorado or the Texas panhandle. 60h Nam is suggesting MLCAPE up to about 1800 J/kg with up to 60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. That's looking pretty good, and would expect severe development somewhere across western Kansas, or the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle region. I'll be heading back from a quick trip to Colorado during that time, so I'll definitely be chasing.

Van

 

[Van DeWald]

Well, maybe I'm the only one chasing Monday, I don't have a problem with that. There's not much of a tornado threat as the upper support just isn't there yet. But, there could be a supercell or two with hail potential along the dryline late afternoon through early evening given bulk shear around 50kts and CAPE 1500 J/kg. Backing winds could help to enhance low level helicity a bit as well. Moisture may be a concern, but dews are progged to come back to the mid 50s. Since I'm driving east of Colorado anyhow, would be setting up somewhere along I70 from Colby to Wakeeny as a first guess and adjust from there. It's not gong to be a huge show, but there should at least be a storm or two to watch.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I agree that there is a small chance of severe wx on Monday. Td is already up to 52 here in Amarillo so moisture is being transported fairly quickly. The upper air dynamics are lacking with this event for good tornado prospects. I think there will be some supercell structures with a few severe hailers in the high CAPE/moisture areas. Maybe the cells will strengthen when/if the LLJ gets going in the late evening. I think tomorrow will be a day of just driving in the cores and playing in the hail.

I think the SPC will go 2% tornado along with 15% hail and wind. Well see....

 

[BrandonWhittington]

As it looks right now, Im just going to play it by ear. It looks like a marginal severe day. Im targeting the Northern TX and OK Panhandles. Just a little bit more dynamics up that way than down here in the central panhandles. Either way, I wont pass a chance of chasing this event since it is so close to home....

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase Target for Monday, May 5

Chase target:
Scott City, KS.

Timing and storm mode:
A small storm complex will exit the area in the morning hours and additional storms will develop around 3 PM CDT. A few isolated supercells will be possible however most storms should remain below severe limits. Storms will grow into a multicell cluster by early evening.

Synopsis:
Over the next 36 hours, the main branch of westerlies will remain along the NRN CONUS in association with the Hudson Bay low while a closed circulation now over CNTRL CA makes slow EWRD progress. SRLY SFC flow will bring a slow NWD moisture return into the area, and a region of 58-60F dewpoints should return to WRN and NWRN KS by tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:
This is a somewhat challenging FCST due to disorganized SFC features. Overnight, a small MCS should develop near Garden City KS between 1 and 2 AM CDT in response to forcing at the nose of a 35kt LLJ and from a compact H7-H6 S/WV entering SWRN KS from NM. Any OFBs associated with this convection is a futher complicating factor in Mondays FCST. Weak cyclogenesis will take place over WRN NM during the afternoon hours. A diffuse E/W-oriented WF will extend E into WRN KS 50 mi S of I-70 and will serve as a focus for convection as dewpoints increase to 60F along and N of a Scott City to Ness City line in KS. Shear parameters will remain weak; however SFC-6km shear of 40 kts should support storm organization.

- bill
11:25 PM CDT, 05/04/08

 

[JF Massicotte]

Chase Target: Garden City, KS

Discussion:

Dewpoints should make it at least in the upper 50 and I am expecting some OFB from this morning's convection to modify with time. Not much expected as almost every factor seem to barely reach severe limits.

I may consider moving up more north if moisture can make it up over there and hope for better upper support.


Have a good day everyone.