5/31/05 TALK: S Plains/W Texas

[Mike Peregrine]

TVS now indicated on storm straight west of AMA as well ... both of these cells have started turning right ... their direction is now E-SE ... these might be good ones to be on after all -

EDIT - just checked vis sat at 3:20 p.m. and a patch of Cu near LBB is showing signs of growth ... looks like possible initiation there shortly, if not already -

EDIT - looks like confirmed initiation now one county north and one county west of LBB. Base reflectivities have picked up precip on the last couple of sweeps. This potential storm may have the ability to remain fairly isolated for a while at least, as surrounding Cu are supressed for the moment anyway. For those using GPS, this cell is currently located at: 33.8967,
-101.3908

AMA storm currently has a spread-eagle appearance on BREF.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Have some images of the Deaf Smith Co storm as the hook first formed...it formed in the time span of ONE VOLUME SCAN! The images are from WDSS-II

Did 3 velocity tilts--using a storm motion of 100 at 5 m/s (excellent meso ) and 2 reflectivity tilts

Sorry for the image sizes

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/ama1.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/ama2.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/ama3.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/amaref1.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/amaref2.png

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

AMA storm currently has a spread-eagle appearance on BREF.

I thought we covered this yesterday...lol. It is flying eagle. If one wants to see spread eagles.....well.....

 

[Philip Flory]

Both storms in Deaf Smith countinue to have a tornado threat. The storm near Joel in SE Deaf Smith County has a strong hook echo and TVS at the moment. This indicated TVS would be real close to the town of Joel. The other storm in Randall Co appears to still be in good shape for about 15-25 more minutes, after that it may interact with some convective blowoff to it's south.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

lol - I'm always making that mistake - sorry I missed the convo yesterday ... we should just come up with a whole new term so we aren't confused anymore ... like 'screaming racoon' or something ...

Ya - Deaf Smith storm still looks pretty good ... also wondering how interaction with surrounding cells may affect Randall. That struggling Cu northeast of LBB is still poopy ... it needs to get off the ground soon -

Kiel ... dude ... you really need to shrink - or eliminate - those images, big daddy -

 

[Philip Flory]

Actually, it would be better if the CU down near LBB would remain non-convective. The storm in SE Deaf Smith Co appears to have long-track potential if it can remain isolated, especially as it is moving into deeper moisture/high instability/strengthening LLJ the next few hrs.

EDIT- Latest LBB warning is TOR for Castro Co. Mentioning baseball sized hail and rotating wall clouds being reported. They also include the "large and destructive" wording at the bottom of the warning.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Wow - the Deaf Smith Co. storm just exploded during the last couple sweeps ... it is a serious BEAST now. Definite FLYING eagle and defined hook, though radar is not currently indicating a TVS. Hopefully you're right Philip and it can remain isolated ...

Here is latest warning lang:

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CASTRO COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTER...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DIMMITT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
lol - I'm always making that mistake - sorry I missed the convo yesterday ... we should just come up with a whole new term so we aren't confused anymore ... like 'screaming racoon' or something ...

Ya - Deaf Smith storm still looks pretty good ... also wondering how interaction with surrounding cells may affect Randall. That struggling Cu northeast of LBB is still poopy ... it needs to get off the ground soon -

Kiel ... dude ... you really need to shrink - or eliminate - those images, big daddy -

Done...just refresh to grab the new images...WDSS went down wwhile I was resizing(I've got a ton of things going on my machine and it's not liking it because I haven't done much lately...lazy computer!)

Storm now really moving southwest with nice, low level rotation.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Thanks Kiel!

There's some additional development on the forward front flank of the Deaf Smith storm, but I think the inflow should manage to stay over clear air ... this one could go on for a while if it manages to get into the best wind environment. NE of LBB looking like it might do something again ... I think these cells are far enough apart that if LBB does get going it shouldn't have much of an effect on the northern storms.

EDIT - wow - look at that hook now - would think there would be something on the ground with the Deaf Smith storm any minute now!

 

[Philip Flory]

Interesting no reports of anything on the ground with the storm now in Castro Co. Strong hook has flattened out the past couple scans though. Other storms are initiating farther S (and W in Parmer Co) ... will be interesting to see what happens next 20-30 minutes.

EDIT: Appears formation of "Operation MCS" may be in progress in hr or so. Storm in Parmer Co is moving East and should mesh with the storm in NE Castro Co around 5:15-5:30 PM.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Impressive velocities with the storm in Deaf Smith now...20.5 in/21.0 out (m/s) out the lowest tilt (~2 km MSL)...liked how the couplet strengthened after the 69.5 dBZ core appeared :lol:

 

[Philip Flory]

Storm in Swisher County is now TOR warned. Storm movement is SE at about 15kts, about 11 miles east of Happy.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Tornado reported on the ground in Castro County now in Texas...north of Dimmit. Courtesy of the newest warning issued...

 

[Mike Johnston]

Three TVS signatures on the Castro Co storm now! Pretty low storm base heights - 800m LCL's - for this part of the country. I wonder if any members are on this storm!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Mike Johnston
I wonder if any members are on this storm!

You can almost bet that we will be seeing some photos of a tornado or two out of Texas posted later on this evening. This is really making me want to get out there again - seems like forever.

Cells continue to indicate mesos, and one 3DCO, but not seeing as strong indications of rotation as we were earlier ... unless I'm missing something. Core intensities max out at 66dBZ ... looking more like a convective cluster as time goes on, though I would imagine the Deaf Smith/Castro storms to have some pretty amazing structure - hope to see it posted.