5/31/05 TALK: S Plains/W Texas

[Shane Adams]

New runs show not much improvement in the overall h5 flow, but we're still a few days out and most of the "mix" is juxtaposed nicely in the same general area. Although we seem to be dealing with weak flow speed-wise (yet again) the turning is more than adequate for sups. Progged temps in the upper 80s/low 90s with mid-60s dews is a bit of a stretch for tornadic possibilities, but it's more than we've had the past week. The main feature I really like is the low in the WC TX panhandle. Just east-northeast of this feature (wherever it eventually sets up for real) is where I would want to be.

Worst case, we can all just sit and wait till the morning of May 31 and glance a 12Z sounding :wink:

 

[Justin Walker]

Progged temps in the upper 80s/low 90s with mid-60s dews is a bit of a stretch for tornadic possibilities, but it's more than we've had the past week.

I assume your looking at the NAM, however, the GFS is progging upper 70's to low 80's across the warm sector. I think the GFS is underplaying the temps a bit, but if this verifies, this LCL's will be significantally lower. We would also loose a little instability, but I would give up a little instability for lower LCL's.

 

[Philip Flory]

The last several NAM runs have been consistent in weakening the shear (especially mid-level) in the TX Pan/W TX area on Tuesday. the latest 18z run continues this pattern. I have several concerns for Tuesday- which will ultimately decide if it's a go or not for me some 8-9 hrs away.

1. 500mb winds- while not extremely weak, they are on the edge of being supportive of supercells (25-30 kts indicated by NAM)

2. Weak 0-3km

3. Effects of overnight MCS .. could be positive (OFB's) or negative (limited heating)

4. Potential of High T/TD depressions.

Just throwing this out right now, we are still 50+ hrs out. Waiting for the 12z RAOBs may not be a bad idea, especially with the model failures taking place this year.
It appears right now.. Tuesday will be the best potential (outside of tomorrow in NM/SE CO) until the Thur/Fri timeframe.

 

[Shane Adams]

Not impressed at all with the latest ETA. Wind fields continue to look worse (if that's possible at this point), instability begins to disappear, and dewpoint depressions are still progged in the 20-25 range. Starting to look like every other crap setup we've had the past ....well, since May 13. I keep hearing all this hope about a pattern change in June, but I still keep seeing risk areas everyday, leaving outflow boundarues everyday, that continue to scour and de-stabalize more than they enhance helicity, everyday. Until these daily, weak flow systems stop, nothing's going to improve. Yes, models are a joke several hours out, but several hours out - that's all you have to go on. That and history, which in 2005 offers little hope. I'd certainly welcome a pattern change, but 've given up on it actually happening. I'm tired of longe range outlooks and hunches.

I want proof.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
Not impressed at all with the latest ETA. Wind fields continue to look worse (if that's possible at this point), instability begins to disappear, and dewpoint depressions are still progged in the 20-25 range. Starting to look like every other crap setup we've had the past ....well, since May 13. I keep hearing all this hope about a pattern change in June, but I still keep seeing risk areas everyday, leaving outflow boundarues everyday, that continue to scour and de-stabalize more than they enhance helicity, everyday. Until these daily, weak flow systems stop, nothing's going to improve. Yes, models are a joke several hours out, but several hours out - that's all you have to go on. That and history, which in 2005 offers little hope. I'd certainly welcome a pattern change, but 've given up on it actually happening. I'm tired of longe range outlooks and hunches.

I want proof.

Wooops...I won't say anything at all! :lol: But I am maintaing the faith...

 

[Philip Flory]

I think with the NAM coming into agreement of decent H5 flow this evening (30-40 kts) and strongly backed flow (albeit quite weak until near dark) I would agree with SPC that a couple tornadoes appear likely early on before a complex forms, I feel SPC tornado prob may be a bit too far N and E however. A few things around home may keep me here, especially with hopefully several chances late this weekend thru next week. If this was a 4-5 hr drive from OUN, it's a no brainer, a 7 hr drive will be a bit harder to pull off today/tonight from ICT. I am going to examine the 12z NAM however, if it was blowout, I may go.

 

[Billy Griffin]

What a cruel joke Mother Nature is doing... why couldn't this have been yesterday? For those of us who work, this just "stinks".

Anyway, I do plan on chasing, but I cannot depart Norman until Noon at the earliest. If I can get hold of some chase partners who are interested, let's plan on leaving Norman at 12 noon.

I think Childress will be a good starting point, perhaps a little west or southwest of there. I do think the residual outflow from this morning convection will aid (outflow boundaries)

 

[Shane Adams]

Check of profilers shows a nice area of stronger (30-40kts) h5 flow approaching the LBB area. This "speed max" should approach the target area later in the day and provide decent venting to sustain (at least for a while) a few supercells. LL winds are still very weak, but are turning nicely. Tornado threat appears marginal, but sup threat seems pretty decent. IMO that averages out to a tornado chance worth pursuing, if you're not half a day away. In 2005, this will have to do...and crazier things have happened.

 

[David Drummond]

Just a reminder that in the past week, many areas in West Texas (especially south of a Levelland-Lubbock-Crosbyton line, have received over 7 inches of rain! Hwy 380 between Brownfield and Plains (Terry and Yoakum Counties) is still closed due to being flooded. It's will take VERY LITTLE rain to start flooding some of the FM roads and forget about using any dirt roads today. Just a heads up.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Made a last minute decision to go to the Panhandle of texas. We'll be in the panhandle at about 6. Hope MCS isnt forming then. Wish me luck

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Convection now breaking out in the panhandle ... scattered storms near AMA (right on frontal boundary) have been trying to get going. Development of MCS seems favorable down there - so you'll want to get under any tower you see as soon as you can.

In fact - SVR warning now for storm over Amarillo - Potter Co. until 3:00 p.m. This area is covered by the tor-watch box, so I'd go for this one if you're nearby. Have fun -

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The cell to the southwest of the Amarillo cell (one county south and one county west) now has a meso indicated on radar. Another newer cell straight west of AMA showing unconfirmed meso. This area might be heavily covered here in a bit ... best SRH values are straight south of Amarillo ... maybe something more discreet will pop up down there. Would be a difficult choice for me to make at this point whether to stick with the panhandle or try and go into clearer air to the south.

EDIT - by the way, motion of these storms is E-NE at apx 11kt.

 

[Justin Walker]

I think I would go farther south. I dont like the way the Amarillo storms are bunched up....hard to chase...poor visibility. The jet streak is just entering west tx around the lubbock area...even visible on satellite. I think this is the place to be...just my humble opinion.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

There is a TVS now showing up on the Amarillo storm ...

I'm also not liking the way it's looking in the Panhandle overall - unless you can get on one of these cells early and it does something ... looks like there will likely be too much storm coverage shortly ... LBB area starting to look like it may be the better bet.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Tornado warning issued:

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS UNTIL 345 PM CDT

Moving east at 10 mph ... the hook is right over southern Amarillo -