5/31/05 TALK: S Plains/W Texas

Shane Adams

New runs show not much improvement in the overall h5 flow, but we're still a few days out and most of the "mix" is juxtaposed nicely in the same general area. Although we seem to be dealing with weak flow speed-wise (yet again) the turning is more than adequate for sups. Progged temps in the upper 80s/low 90s with mid-60s dews is a bit of a stretch for tornadic possibilities, but it's more than we've had the past week. The main feature I really like is the low in the WC TX panhandle. Just east-northeast of this feature (wherever it eventually sets up for real) is where I would want to be.

Worst case, we can all just sit and wait till the morning of May 31 and glance a 12Z sounding :wink:
 
Progged temps in the upper 80s/low 90s with mid-60s dews is a bit of a stretch for tornadic possibilities, but it's more than we've had the past week.
I assume your looking at the NAM, however, the GFS is progging upper 70's to low 80's across the warm sector. I think the GFS is underplaying the temps a bit, but if this verifies, this LCL's will be significantally lower. We would also loose a little instability, but I would give up a little instability for lower LCL's.
 
The last several NAM runs have been consistent in weakening the shear (especially mid-level) in the TX Pan/W TX area on Tuesday. the latest 18z run continues this pattern. I have several concerns for Tuesday- which will ultimately decide if it's a go or not for me some 8-9 hrs away.

1. 500mb winds- while not extremely weak, they are on the edge of being supportive of supercells (25-30 kts indicated by NAM)

2. Weak 0-3km

3. Effects of overnight MCS .. could be positive (OFB's) or negative (limited heating)

4. Potential of High T/TD depressions.

Just throwing this out right now, we are still 50+ hrs out. Waiting for the 12z RAOBs may not be a bad idea, especially with the model failures taking place this year.
It appears right now.. Tuesday will be the best potential (outside of tomorrow in NM/SE CO) until the Thur/Fri timeframe.
 
Not impressed at all with the latest ETA. Wind fields continue to look worse (if that's possible at this point), instability begins to disappear, and dewpoint depressions are still progged in the 20-25 range. Starting to look like every other crap setup we've had the past ....well, since May 13. I keep hearing all this hope about a pattern change in June, but I still keep seeing risk areas everyday, leaving outflow boundarues everyday, that continue to scour and de-stabalize more than they enhance helicity, everyday. Until these daily, weak flow systems stop, nothing's going to improve. Yes, models are a joke several hours out, but several hours out - that's all you have to go on. That and history, which in 2005 offers little hope. I'd certainly welcome a pattern change, but 've given up on it actually happening. I'm tired of longe range outlooks and hunches.

I want proof.
 
Originally posted by Shane Adams
Not impressed at all with the latest ETA. Wind fields continue to look worse (if that's possible at this point), instability begins to disappear, and dewpoint depressions are still progged in the 20-25 range. Starting to look like every other crap setup we've had the past ....well, since May 13. I keep hearing all this hope about a pattern change in June, but I still keep seeing risk areas everyday, leaving outflow boundarues everyday, that continue to scour and de-stabalize more than they enhance helicity, everyday. Until these daily, weak flow systems stop, nothing's going to improve. Yes, models are a joke several hours out, but several hours out - that's all you have to go on. That and history, which in 2005 offers little hope. I'd certainly welcome a pattern change, but 've given up on it actually happening. I'm tired of longe range outlooks and hunches.

I want proof.

Wooops...I won't say anything at all! :lol: But I am maintaing the faith...
 
I think with the NAM coming into agreement of decent H5 flow this evening (30-40 kts) and strongly backed flow (albeit quite weak until near dark) I would agree with SPC that a couple tornadoes appear likely early on before a complex forms, I feel SPC tornado prob may be a bit too far N and E however. A few things around home may keep me here, especially with hopefully several chances late this weekend thru next week. If this was a 4-5 hr drive from OUN, it's a no brainer, a 7 hr drive will be a bit harder to pull off today/tonight from ICT. I am going to examine the 12z NAM however, if it was blowout, I may go.
 
What a cruel joke Mother Nature is doing... why couldn't this have been yesterday? For those of us who work, this just "stinks".

Anyway, I do plan on chasing, but I cannot depart Norman until Noon at the earliest. If I can get hold of some chase partners who are interested, let's plan on leaving Norman at 12 noon.

I think Childress will be a good starting point, perhaps a little west or southwest of there. I do think the residual outflow from this morning convection will aid (outflow boundaries)
 
Check of profilers shows a nice area of stronger (30-40kts) h5 flow approaching the LBB area. This "speed max" should approach the target area later in the day and provide decent venting to sustain (at least for a while) a few supercells. LL winds are still very weak, but are turning nicely. Tornado threat appears marginal, but sup threat seems pretty decent. IMO that averages out to a tornado chance worth pursuing, if you're not half a day away. In 2005, this will have to do...and crazier things have happened.
 
Just a reminder that in the past week, many areas in West Texas (especially south of a Levelland-Lubbock-Crosbyton line, have received over 7 inches of rain! Hwy 380 between Brownfield and Plains (Terry and Yoakum Counties) is still closed due to being flooded. It's will take VERY LITTLE rain to start flooding some of the FM roads and forget about using any dirt roads today. Just a heads up.
 
Made a last minute decision to go to the Panhandle of texas. We'll be in the panhandle at about 6. Hope MCS isnt forming then. Wish me luck
 
Convection now breaking out in the panhandle ... scattered storms near AMA (right on frontal boundary) have been trying to get going. Development of MCS seems favorable down there - so you'll want to get under any tower you see as soon as you can.

In fact - SVR warning now for storm over Amarillo - Potter Co. until 3:00 p.m. This area is covered by the tor-watch box, so I'd go for this one if you're nearby. Have fun -
 
The cell to the southwest of the Amarillo cell (one county south and one county west) now has a meso indicated on radar. Another newer cell straight west of AMA showing unconfirmed meso. This area might be heavily covered here in a bit ... best SRH values are straight south of Amarillo ... maybe something more discreet will pop up down there. Would be a difficult choice for me to make at this point whether to stick with the panhandle or try and go into clearer air to the south.

EDIT - by the way, motion of these storms is E-NE at apx 11kt.
 
I think I would go farther south. I dont like the way the Amarillo storms are bunched up....hard to chase...poor visibility. The jet streak is just entering west tx around the lubbock area...even visible on satellite. I think this is the place to be...just my humble opinion.
 
There is a TVS now showing up on the Amarillo storm ...

I'm also not liking the way it's looking in the Panhandle overall - unless you can get on one of these cells early and it does something ... looks like there will likely be too much storm coverage shortly ... LBB area starting to look like it may be the better bet.
 
Tornado warning issued:

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS UNTIL 345 PM CDT

Moving east at 10 mph ... the hook is right over southern Amarillo -
 
TVS now indicated on storm straight west of AMA as well ... both of these cells have started turning right ... their direction is now E-SE ... these might be good ones to be on after all -

EDIT - just checked vis sat at 3:20 p.m. and a patch of Cu near LBB is showing signs of growth ... looks like possible initiation there shortly, if not already -

EDIT - looks like confirmed initiation now one county north and one county west of LBB. Base reflectivities have picked up precip on the last couple of sweeps. This potential storm may have the ability to remain fairly isolated for a while at least, as surrounding Cu are supressed for the moment anyway. For those using GPS, this cell is currently located at: 33.8967,
-101.3908

AMA storm currently has a spread-eagle appearance on BREF.
 
Have some images of the Deaf Smith Co storm as the hook first formed...it formed in the time span of ONE VOLUME SCAN! :D The images are from WDSS-II

Did 3 velocity tilts--using a storm motion of 100 at 5 m/s (excellent meso :D ) and 2 reflectivity tilts

Sorry for the image sizes :(

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/ama1.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/ama2.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/ama3.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/amaref1.png

[Broken External Image]:http://weather.ou.edu/~kortega/radar/amaref2.png
 
AMA storm currently has a spread-eagle appearance on BREF.

I thought we covered this yesterday...lol. It is flying eagle. If one wants to see spread eagles.....well.....
 
Both storms in Deaf Smith countinue to have a tornado threat. The storm near Joel in SE Deaf Smith County has a strong hook echo and TVS at the moment. This indicated TVS would be real close to the town of Joel. The other storm in Randall Co appears to still be in good shape for about 15-25 more minutes, after that it may interact with some convective blowoff to it's south.
 
lol - I'm always making that mistake - sorry I missed the convo yesterday ... we should just come up with a whole new term so we aren't confused anymore ... like 'screaming racoon' or something ...

Ya - Deaf Smith storm still looks pretty good ... also wondering how interaction with surrounding cells may affect Randall. That struggling Cu northeast of LBB is still poopy ... it needs to get off the ground soon -

Kiel ... dude ... you really need to shrink - or eliminate - those images, big daddy - :)
 
Actually, it would be better if the CU down near LBB would remain non-convective. The storm in SE Deaf Smith Co appears to have long-track potential if it can remain isolated, especially as it is moving into deeper moisture/high instability/strengthening LLJ the next few hrs.

EDIT- Latest LBB warning is TOR for Castro Co. Mentioning baseball sized hail and rotating wall clouds being reported. They also include the "large and destructive" wording at the bottom of the warning.
 
Wow - the Deaf Smith Co. storm just exploded during the last couple sweeps ... it is a serious BEAST now. Definite FLYING eagle and defined hook, though radar is not currently indicating a TVS. Hopefully you're right Philip and it can remain isolated ...

Here is latest warning lang:

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CASTRO COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTER...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DIMMITT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
 
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
lol - I'm always making that mistake - sorry I missed the convo yesterday ... we should just come up with a whole new term so we aren't confused anymore ... like 'screaming racoon' or something ...

Ya - Deaf Smith storm still looks pretty good ... also wondering how interaction with surrounding cells may affect Randall. That struggling Cu northeast of LBB is still poopy ... it needs to get off the ground soon -

Kiel ... dude ... you really need to shrink - or eliminate - those images, big daddy - :)

Done...just refresh to grab the new images...WDSS went down wwhile I was resizing(I've got a ton of things going on my machine and it's not liking it because I haven't done much lately...lazy computer!)

Storm now really moving southwest with nice, low level rotation.
 
Thanks Kiel! :)

There's some additional development on the forward front flank of the Deaf Smith storm, but I think the inflow should manage to stay over clear air ... this one could go on for a while if it manages to get into the best wind environment. NE of LBB looking like it might do something again ... I think these cells are far enough apart that if LBB does get going it shouldn't have much of an effect on the northern storms.

EDIT - wow - look at that hook now - would think there would be something on the ground with the Deaf Smith storm any minute now!
 
Interesting no reports of anything on the ground with the storm now in Castro Co. Strong hook has flattened out the past couple scans though. Other storms are initiating farther S (and W in Parmer Co) ... will be interesting to see what happens next 20-30 minutes.

EDIT: Appears formation of "Operation MCS" may be in progress in hr or so. Storm in Parmer Co is moving East and should mesh with the storm in NE Castro Co around 5:15-5:30 PM.
 
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