5/27/06 FCST: TX / OK

The UCAR RUC and ETA both suggest a few isolated storms may form in the vicinity of Childress this afternoon. The area from Abilene north to near Woodward may also see a few storms. With shear on the low end of moderate, perhaps one of the storms will evolve into a huge HP supercell toward evening, with generous amounts of photogenic lightning.

I wish the instability were forecast to be a bit higher and I would like to see more turning between the surface and 700 mb, and, did I say, a bit more instability.

The dew point here in Garland this morning is 69 degrees, with 64 degrees at Frederick, 65 at Abilene and only 50 at Childress, but with a southeast surface wind..

The jetstream at 250 and 200 mb will provide increasingly difluent flow over the Childress area, with a bit of a jet max and increasing PVA at 500 mb approaching from the southwest by early evening. At the surface, a dryline is forecast to be in place across the eastern Texas Panhandle.

Surface temps are forecast between 95 and 100 degrees at their peak. With rich, high dewpoint air flowing into the area, perhaps the initial convection will produce gusters, followed by an evolution into a slower moving HP beast as storms move a bit farther eastward into extreme western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Upper support at 250 and 200 mb is forecast to be a bit better near Abilene, but due to the strengthening LLJ, environmental helicity is forecast to be higher from Childress / Vernon northward into western Oklahoma at 0Z.

Can Mother Nature produce an accident this evening?

However, if I were on a multi-day chase, I would head north. But, since I have only a three day weekend, I will take the "short" drive up hwy 287.
 
I'm seeing an interesting little axis of possible activity along a Dodge City/Woodward/Childress axis for this afternoon. Yesterday my plan was definitely for Childress, but this morning, I'm leaning more towards the northern end. I like the somewhat higher CAPEs between Dodge City and Woodward, as well as the dryline punch that's progged on ETA (or NAM, whatever it's name is now) for the Oakley/Garden City area this evening.
I'm looking forward to a nice afternoon, just me and Mother Nature, leaning toward the northern end of things with a target of Buffalo, OK.
Angie
 
This is kind of a NOW type of thing but I didnt want to start a whole new thread for it. Angie looks like a good tcu field in Barber county kansas goin up in your northern target, looks like dbz on one of the small cells in there peaked at about 30, I would like to see better low and deep layer shear in the area, not quite sure if 500 mb flow of 20kt from the ssw in southern kansas will quit do the trick for supercells?

EDIT: however I should add that a slight speed max of 30kt from the SW is approaching the area so things could improve shear wise.
 
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