5/26/08 FCST: KS/OK/TX/MO

[Paul Knightley]

Latest WRF is mixing things up just a shade, bringing the boundary a little further north into cent KS. Original plan was to head to DDC and decide from there, but probably drop south or SE of DDC. Will probably still do the 1st part of that anyway, and then see what happens when we get to Dodge.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'm thinking of heading toward the Enid/Woodward area. The 12Z RUC is showing good vertical velocity in the area at 0Z, CAPE ~4000 J/kg, and breaks out precip about 0Z. The boundary intersection will be a bit more Woodward, but there's good road options. Just waiting for the next run to decide for sure.
If you are chasing through any of the smaller towns today, just a word to the wise...watch your speed (as I was "reminded" on Friday ).
Everybody be careful and happy hunting!

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase Target for Today, May 26

Chase target: Bucklin, KS (between Greensburg and Dodge City).

Timing and storm mode:
Storms will initiate first in the OK panhandle into SWRN KS at 3 PM CDT, and build towards the increasingly favorable instability and shear of the target area through 5 PM. Once again, all forms of severe weather appears likely, and storm motion will be east at 20mph.

Synopsis:
The region remains under the influence of broad ridging, with WV imagery indicating a S/WV with associated assent over the TX panhandle and this was lifting to the NE towards KS. A subtle upstream wave was also noted over ERN NM. Recent convection has made a mess of the SFC map. At 16Z a CF was analyzed from HYS to GCK to EHA. An OFB extended from ICT to GBD, where rapid recovery from earlier convection has taken place and moisture was pooling as indicated be an axis of 70F dewpoints. A stout mid-level thermal ridge extended from the TX panhandle into WRN KS where it was coincident with the steepest mid-level lapse rates.

Discussion:
Extreme instability will develop in SRN KS by late afternoon as aforementioned steep lapse rates overspreads a deep moisture layer with SFC dewpoints AOA 70F. The CF will sag slowly to the SE, and convection should initiate along the CF in the OK panhandle where strong SFC heating takes place. A potential negative is a weak LLJ, however, however H85 flow will increase to 40kts near sunset which will result in increasingly favorable environment for tornadogenesis as SFC-3km SRHs increase to 500m2/s3.

- bill
11:45 AM CDT, 05/26/08

 

[Mike Johnston]

At this point in the afternoon, I would be inclined to set up on U.S. 281 anywhere from Alva, OK to Medicine Lodge, KS to Pratt, KS - right along the impressive instability axis. W/ the steep lapse rates, it will not take much lift to get things going and I wouldn't be surprised to see initiation sooner rather than later.

Good luck to all chasing today and if you need some nowcast help, I'll be available this afternoon so just PM me.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Currently kissing with hotel in Med Lodge and can tell you straight up that today is pretty much unfolding like I had expected this time yesterday. I always knew today was more of an high end severe MCS day then tornado but with the way year has gone, still would be stupid to not pull the trigger on today.
Looking at sky here in Med Lodge, and having chased MCSs before, I can tell you that if your looking for discreteness today, go back home or stay home. Everything is going to go up at once, in other words, little capping. This is why I was hesitant about going out on my own today but with the location shift overnight, I felt little more comfortable with it.
I expect initiation around 2ish.

 

[Andrew McDonald]

I wouldn't say little capping. Current mesoanalysis shows 850 temps of 20-22C over south western Kansas, north western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas panhandle with 12C at 700 above this. I'd think this is quite a stout cap - at least for areas along the dryline. Its almost nearing concerning levels but hoping convergence along the front/dryine intersection can overcome this later today along with the shortwave over SE Colorado (showing up on the 700mb mesoanalysis chart). Might not be a bad thing as it might allow for slightly more isolated convection for longer (unlike y'day).

Currently sitting in Bucklin, Kansas...waiting.

Andrew McDonald

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

I will agree. If you look on vis you will see that I was still under the outflow boundary converegence a little in Med Lodge. Hadnt quite looked at vis west at that time. Now am in Alva and am just going to sit and wait. Do not want to head any further west and get caught in bad situation with explosive development everywhere/downstream. ATTM first shot at development is occuring in eastern TX panhandle just south of I-40 but expect storms to fire further upstream in NW OK. With the amount of instability present with full insolation, I expect a high end severe MCS that will become forward propogating toward evening and sunset. Another good day for Corfidi vector analysis. May turn into a 5/31/07 or 6/16/05 event

 

[Mike Smith]

SPC says tornado watch WBIS south central Kansas into west Texas. Best chance of tornadoes in Kansas, they say.

Small echo in SW KS and towers going up along cold front.

1843Z Tornado watch 85 miles east and west of line from 70 NW HUT to 10 SSE CDS, VT now until 9pm CDT. Storm motion vector 26025.

Be safe and good luck, everyone.

Mike

 

[Mike Johnston]

I will agree. If you look on vis you will see that I was still under the outflow boundary converegence a little in Med Lodge. Hadnt quite looked at vis west at that time. Now am in Alva and am just going to sit and wait. Do not want to head any further west and get caught in bad situation with explosive development everywhere/downstream. ATTM first shot at development is occuring in eastern TX panhandle just south of I-40 but expect storms to fire further upstream in NW OK. With the amount of instability present with full insolation, I expect a high end severe MCS that will become forward propogating toward evening and sunset. Another good day for Corfidi vector analysis. May turn into a 5/31/07 or 6/16/05 event

Yes, the outflow boundary can be analyzed now from roughly Abbyville to just west of Kingman to Harper, KS, pushing generally west at perhaps 15 to 20. Decent wind shift and Td differential along this boundary.