5/26/08 FCST: KS/OK/TX/MO

[Jordan Hartley]

Severe weather event setting up for tommorow across SC KS. A 998-1000mb will be in place in SW KS with a sharp warm front extending E across cntrl Ks. Excellent directional shear along the warmfront along with a very unstable airmass will most likely lead to a very active afternoon for most of SC KS and perhaps even into W/OK, TX Panhandle along the dryline if you can get a strom to fire which attm appears likely per NAM Precip Model. Ill be headed out with Mike Gribble tommorow although I will be taking my own vehicle so if anyone wants to tag along maybe help out a little with gas PM me.

 

[Jason Branz]

It'll be interesting to see where this OFB that's evident on DDC radar ends up. Overall, the setup looks nice with backing winds across SC KS by 00Z Tues. Latest NAM pools dewpoints near Medicine Lodge with a CAPE max a little farther west. I'm going to hang here in GBD for a while, try to pinpoint where the OFB intersects that deeper moisture, and go from there. My best guesstimate for initiation is immediately east of DDC, say Kinsley-Greensburg.

-JB

 

[David Toner]

I'm hoping a few cells can get fired up ahead of the warm front. There is certainly enough moisture. I am slightly concerned about the instability but given the past few days I can't pass this up as I finally have a couple of days off.

Currently targeting Hutchison, KS or Kingman, KS if I can make it there before initiation. Emporia to Wichita is an alternate.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

It'll be interesting to see where this OFB that's evident on DDC radar ends up.

-JB

I agree, and I think that will be the primary focus of my attention tomorrow. OFBs can be magic (obviously -- see Saturday for an example), and it looks like it may stall along I40 tonight (most of the convection is N of I40), and it will hopefully lift Nward tomorrow. The 00z NAM would argue for SW/SC KS and adjacent portions of NW/NC OK, IMO. On the other hand, we've seen what happens when overnight convection hoses an entire target area as well, so who knows. Right now, I agree with your target area, and the NAM forecast soundings show very nice hodographs / shear profiles across the area. If it were 10:45 AM I would be very concerned about storms, but we have more than 18 hours to get the juice from I40 back into southern KS. If the OFB is not readily apparent tomorrow, then the dryline looks like a possible target (likely from far SW KS to the OK / TX panhandle border). I'm concerned about the relatively weak upper-level flow that may lead to an HP character to any supercells that form, but I'll take any supercell over a bust. We'll be starting from Great Bend, as well (Comfort Inn attm).

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Well the new DY1 is out and its been downgraded to SLT, which doesnt surprise me. Models completely busted today (5/25) with the TX panhandle MCS. NAM was not only out to lunch but on vacation. According to it, Wichita should not have seen ANY precip, nor northern or NW OK. Only thing models forecasted was scattered to isolated activity along the dryline SW of DDC to the Big Bend/Trans Pecos. I knew around 2pm today (5/25) that tomorrow (5/26) was in jeopardy once I saw that MCS over the TX panhandle congealing and coming together. It pretty much robbed everything tomorrow. Now with meso high and scourge of sfc moisture together with considerable anvil debris leftover, I have my reservations about tomorrow. If rich moisture (68-71) can somehow shoot from southern OK to along 400 in KS by 18Z tomorrow, ill be happy, but I have my doubts.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

The convection and clouds currently over KS through MO looks terrible. I know clearing will eventually happen but will delay my departure before making the LONG drive from KY to KS. I have a feeling that Oklahoma will see more action as moisture is alrealy in place with much less cloud cover. The next few hours should shed some light on how fast those clouds move out.

 

[Chris Sokol]

I am also having serious doubts about Kansas today. More than likely I will wait things out until noon to make a decision. If forced to make a decision right now, I would most likely pick Kingfisher as my target. With the MCS that is passing to the north of the OKC area currently, there should be a nice OFB in place today, and I am not convinced that it will make it's way very far north.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

With the poor 500's, odd surface winds, messy MCS, and iffy shear in most of the area, I've decided to stay in Iowa today after an emotionally exhausting day yesterday. Certain areas of possible interest should things work out include SW/SC Kansas, S Missouri, and even possibly W Ohio/E Indiana, but I am not very confident that ingredients will be around for a reliable chase. Given all of this information, I forecast a slow-moving, long-lived supercell in WC Oklahoma that drops twenty high-contrast tornadoes over rural areas .

 

[Shane Adams]

The problem for today is getting convection to fire in the area where the instability meets the shear. This is a very narrow zone that looks to be along or just north of the KS/OK border by 21Z (per current 12-RUC). Instability is, again, not an issue for the N Oklahoma target, but shear is horrid. On the other hand, helicity/shear is quite good along the US400 corridor in S Kansas, but right on the edge of decent instability. Right now the only play IMO for a decent shot at tornadoes looks to be the area around and just east of DDC, where helicity and instability seem best-layered.

FWIW, the Granada, CO profiler shows slightly increased h5 winds over the past six hours, up to 30kts. If this can be realized further east and south (Haviland's profiler also shows a slight increase @h5 to 30kts but data is gone after 11pm yesterday) then we might be in business. Of course both the Lamont and Vici, OK profilers show no data (as has been the case the past several days, at least for me). If the h5 issues are resolved in NW/NC Oklahoma, there's still the lack of backed h85 flow to deal with there.

As of now, IMO, today depends on that OFB getting far enough north into the area that's semi-primed for sup development. With instability as high as we should have today, it doesn't take a lot of shear to get the magic...just adequate. Hopefully the next few RUC runs will move that 30kt h5 flow a bit further southeast. If we can realize that in NW OK, I think the instability will overcome the lack of better h85/surface backing.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Last night a member of the chase crew asked.. Have you ever seen a day 2 mdt downgraded to slight in day one?

I said no..... Well, can't say anymore. Lol

Anyways, waking up from Salina on the last day of the chasecation, certainly want to see some stuff..

Surface obs in SE KS show 60 degree dewpoints and SE winds already into the area..

I just looked through the latest RUC.. It shows very nice CAPE developing over the SE portion of KS... But it doesn't seem like it is co-located with the best shear..

The 9z RUC looks to have verified quite well based on 12z obs..

All in all, I would expect the MDT risk to come back for SC kansas.. But tornado potential looks somewhat iffy with the progged shear. But I think I would target the Greensburg Area also.

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: Meade, KS TIME OF DEPARTURE FROM SALINA, KS: 9 AM - Looks like a classic dryline/outflow boundary intersection event in SW KS. I also like the eastern OK and TX panhandles down to Canadian, TX but the upper winds are weaker down there. Hoping for a triple point storm that rides the outflow boundary today. NOON UPDATE- Made it as far as GBD before holding up. Our winds are SE and there is building Cu around. With a surface low to our west, nose of TheataE pointing here, and higher CAPES south, we'll stay put for a while and watch some birds at Cheyenne Bottoms. TM

 

[Brian Stertz]

Based on cold front location and possible outflow problems as things progress towards later this evening...the chase will be squarely hinging on the 2-3 hrs. after initiation. The best theta ridge nose is going to poke into the area between Dodge City and Medicine Lodge KS. This would put the Greensburg-Pratt areas under the gun once again later this afternoon. The key today is to get the 925/850mb winds to back some...which I feel will happen after 4pm. Not sure about as favorable backed winds along dryline...but sure is ample instability with good perp. alignment of shear vectors to allow the dryline supercells to be discrete and intense across the E. Texas Panhandle and W.Oklahoma. MDT risk looks good...but given late May...I would probably bump up the tornado threat especially between DDC and Medicine Lodge where stronger directional shear and pooled instability are expected to be in place this afternoon. Current plans are to grab breakfast, meet up with the group in DDC and then shift over towards the Greensburg area.

 

[Bill Hark]

Sitting in Hays checking data. As I expected, last night's convection has really changed chase potential for today. I still think there is a slight possiblity of tornadic storms in a narrow area south of Dodge City into Oklahoma, maybe around Buffalo. The cap will also be an issue especially into OK. Model forecasts (both GFS and NAM) show only a arrow area of backed surface and 850 wnds in that area in response to a low. Forecast CAPE of 2500 will be in a narrow north south line reaching the Oklahoma border. Upper level support is weaker farther south with 500 SW winds at 30-40 in my target area. Especially after last nights convection, I want to wait and see how the models process this morning's obs and if a dryline punch at the KS/OK border (slightly farther north using the GFS) is still predicted. Note the SE winds at Gage 69/66.
Current plan: Go south to Dodge City, check data to refine chase target. Currently, it is Buffalo.

Bill Hark

 

[Shane Adams]

Latest RUC run is in agreement with what I was hoping to see, a nice shear profile across extreme NW OK/SW KS. The 30kt h5 line is now showing a bit further southeast into NW OK, with a nice area of precip breaking out by 0Z...likely closer to 21Z. The helicity progs are a bit further south as well, with the instability not even an issue. Finally seeing things stacked how I like them.

The Hugoton/Sublette/Dodge City corridor looks prime for that renegade tornadic sup that makes dreams come true (like we had two days ago in OK).

 

[Andrew McDonald]

Is anyone else concerned about the dry air at 850 which has appeared over much of the eastern Tx panhandle and into western Oklahoma?

Current target is far NW Oklahoma (Buffalo) but will be keeping an eye on this dry air thing (have no idea if its an anomoly, but if it is real - what caused it?).

Andrew McDonald

EDIT: Dry air shows up on the DDC and AMA soundings from this morning. With a slight W'ly component to the 850 winds, this could be cause for concern. RUC shows moisture creeping up west of this dry air during the day. Will be interesting to see how well these juicy surface Td's hold up during the late morning/early afternoon.