5/24/2005 TALK: High/Central/Southern Plains

Mike Hollingshead

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana...ysis/s1/scp.gif

I think I'm bout to head to the middle of that(central NE)! Indicies like that never lie. Sorry for the humor, but I'm half serious. I am thinking that area has some hope. Not going to say it is dreamy but crazy things can and do happen. I like the ofb that was showing up on satellite south of it running up to the area of convergence. Sucks I think that ofb will be washing out up there as the trend on satellite is trying to confirm. But none-the-less I think something could pop in the Ord or Broken Bow area and be chaseable. The hope is that boundary to its south doesn't completely wash out and is enough for something to anchor on. We'll see. Good luck to those out there today.
 
Looks like there might be a weak northeastward moving mesolow near Burwell after animating the radial velocity field where that cloud field is giving some weak returns. As such, I'd probably want to stay immediately northeast of this feature to improve the odds of backing surface winds. That said, the best moisture is immediately trailing this feature - so that is why I wouldn't try to get to far northeast of it. SPC mesoscale analyses suggest there is still a ways to go in terms of heating in order to break the cap - but the CIN was cut in half over the last hour alone.

Glen
 
We are in Goodland as of now, picking our target.

The forecaster from KGLD was on target yesterday and seems on target today. Too lazy to forecast much myself so I may follow his/her lead.

Hated the big mess of the congealed cells yesterday so may try to get further begind the action today.

SPC mentions landspouts east of denver. Mixing in a touch of the Goodland Kansas HWO we may target Yuma CO perhaps JOES co in Yuma county.

The SPC has a MD up for the area will be warned shortly.

I like this from the MD
LANDSPOUTS/TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE ZONE FROM JUST E OF KDEN TO
WASHINGTON COUNTY CO.


Likely to play the Washington/Yuma county CO..

Heading to Cope CO right now.. Will be there in an hour or so.

--
Tom Hanlon
 
That storm in Wheeler County, NE, looks like it's about to go crazy-go-nuts. Bless ye, Mike, if you're out there -- it's a good 200 miles away from where it looked like everything would be today. :)

Cap certainly is much less of an issue out in that area.
 
Cap breaking across eastern Ok. One cell developed on a ofb from the last night's MCS. Decent shear across this region. Let's see if something can get going!!
 
NE... lots of supercell hailers developing in NErn NE... no tor warnings as of yet... You can see these towers from Omaha

CO...Numerous tor warnings out fro NEern CO.. basically the whole corner of the state, or was at one point...

OK... things just starting to pop on E-central OK...

good luck to all...
 
Originally posted by Edward Ballou
Nice hook echo forming in northeast Nebraska (NE NE :)). Wonder if they'll put out a nader warning. Too bad this didn't happen last Saturday.
Click to expand...

Ed, it would be extremely unlikely given the dewpoint depression (difference in temperature between the air and the dewpoint) is extremely large (~30+ degrees) and low-level winds in the atmosphere are light across that region. While a landspout isn't etirely out of the question, the situation is far from favorable for tornadoes. Severe hail and some strong gusty winds are most likely, but storms may have some nice visual structure (I'm sure Mike H will have some nice pics to demonstrate this later if it's there to be had).

Glen
 
Very nice cell north of Henryetta, OK. Will enter into for favorable environment. T-Td's of 15 to 18 in it's path. Need to watch this one closely!
 
Originally posted by Justin Walker
Very nice cell north of Henryetta, OK. Will enter into for favorable environment. T-Td's of 15 to 18 in it's path. Need to watch this one closely!
Click to expand...

While I think the surface thermo is okay for tornadoes (which is what I think you are implying), the lowest 1.5 km look like crap in terms of winds. This storm will probably do some damage with hail and given it's appearance from the lab, it should be alive for quite awhile. I'll be curious to see any pictures of this thing from underneath...I assume it'll have one crappy looking base on it, with more impressive structure above.
 
Saw that one going up from OUN. It had an awesome overshoot for 5-6 minutes as well. Deeplayer shear isn't too bad, and strong instability is favoring radid supercell growth. Unfortunately, the flow below 850mb is very weak, as shown by the 5-10kts on Purcell and Haskell profiler. In addition, winds are highly veered south of I40, except for a small area in extreme east-central and southeastern OK. I think supercells are a good bet, though the very weak and veered flow in the 0-2km layer will likely prevent much of a tornado threat. That said, Tulsa has continued to mention a tornado threat, even giving a "signficant" tornado threat south of I40, though SPC has withdrawn the 2% prob entirely. I'd say there is a small window for tornadoes along the boundary in eastcentral/southeastern OK where winds turn from southwest to southeast... There is also signficant 0-3km CAPE in this area per latest SPC mesoanaly, so I actually would think that there would be a local tornado threat in that area. Otherwise, I'm going to wait around OUN for a bit longer and see if something can form near a boundary intersection near/north/east of OKC.

EDIT: Supercell in eastcentral OK now tornado warned. Latest 21z mesoanaly showing signfiacnt low-level CAPE and vorticity in the area, in addition to 1200-1400m LCLs. If I was there I'd be happy. Alas, I'll still wait for new convection possibly to it's west.
 
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