5/23/08 FCST: NE, KS

[Ben Prusia]

After a horrible yesterday for me (fishtailing at 15 mph on a muddy road and getting stuck for 2 hours--thanks to those on #stormchase for helping me out as I didn't have a cell phone signal but had signal on my internet card), I am more apt and ready to go more southern for today's setup.

Latest satellite loop shows clouds continually developing along and north of the warm front which appears to be just south of Hays and the I-70 corridor. The rain cooled air and lower instability by the full cloud cover leads me to believe that any cell that goes north of the warm front could become more HP than cells that fire along the dryline. Surface OBs show Tds in the upper 60s getting into the 70 degree range from Pratt to Newton and this moisture is going to surge northwestward with the strong SE winds at H85. I feel confident that areas along the dryline could get dewpoints at or around 70 degrees. With the sunshine south of the warm front, temperatures will warm significantly allowing for high instability to develop in that area. It appears all significant severe parameters will remain higher to the south of I-70 so I will be heading out from Hays in a little to areas south and west of Ness City. Hopefully today is better for me, and Mike H, at least...and I am staying off of the muddy roads.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

North or south of I-70… hmm … I do think the dryline will be better than yesterday because of the higher dews creeping into central KS. But I,m still in Omaha and not sure I can reach there in time as things should fire around 21z. I love the area north of there on the NE / KS border, say Norton to Beaver City and east to Alma, and think this will hold out till around 00z and then explode, should have good daylight till around 9 pm then get out the night vision goggles as things will keep going. Think I’ll stay north and try to stay out of the KS circus show. Good luck to all and send them spinners north to Nebraska.

 

[Ben McMillan]

Visible satellite is showing a nice outflow boundry that has developed along, and just south of, I-70. With this feature currently intersecting the dryline in Thomas county in northwest Kansas, it could provide an enhanced area of turning with any cells that develop.

It appears to be stationary or slowing drifting south. We are heading to Oakley to watch the show begin.

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Since Michael already posted that insane CAPE, here's the RUC 0Z helicity:

I have to say that this is the most dangerous looking set-up I've ever seen. Check out the RUC Skew-T for Dodge City: http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=kddc

... 0Z EHI is 12. Garden City is 9.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

4000 j/kg of CAPE now in SW Kansas and its only 12:45pm. Clear skies right here with a very ominous cumulus field to our south,west, and north, sitting in Dighton, KS right now. Expect things to go kind of early on the dryline. Looks like the clouds are moving more NE than N which is a blessing and a challenge. We will sit tight as I expect storms to develop by 3pm along the dryline and move north to the warm front just like yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a HIGh risk by the next outlook.

 

[Shane Adams]

Our plan is to repeat yesterday's strategy, basically starting in SW Kansas and following stuff north-northeast to the warm front/boundary. If you believe the RUC, the Liberal area should be insane by 7pm. Currently heading south on 183 from Hays to Rush Center, then drifting west and south to south of the boundary. Plan is to break-off stuff moving towards I-70 near 5pm, unless it's going gangbusters, to head south again and be there for what will hopefully be an isolated, long-track tornadic sup around the Liberal area. If the RUC even comes close to verifying, there will be a violent wedge somewhere in that area around the 6-8pm time frame. We want to be there.