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5/23/08 FCST: NE, KS

Posted this in the wrong thread ... doh! (too many events coming up) ...

I still like the bulge in the dryline that is currently taking aim more toward Hays to Hill City (again, provided this is really this far east when it ends up - not likely - and also depending on how much the OFBs lingering from overnight convection might reinforce and trigger stuff out in the warm sector).

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs084hr_sfc_dewp.gif

Starting to get a little giddy just thinking about possibilities right now. If I could shoot straight out I-70 to Hays or WaKeeney, my life would be so good on Friday.

Edit - and those LCLs Mikey posted are totally cool for high plains.
 
Two things I do not like based on the latest runs (sorry I always have to look at how I can get screwed). The GFS has pretty anemic UT winds- less than 50 kts. This makes me think gorilla hail HPs. Secondly, the NAM shows all of the better 0-1KM SRH pretty far north in Nebraska.

However, as an astute philosopher once said "High CAPE kicks A$$"- and that may overcome other deficiencies in the KS area on Friday. SB values likely to exceed 4000 and maybe 5000 joules.
 
mcrowther said...
Two things I do not like based on the latest runs (sorry I always have to look at how I can get screwed). The GFS has pretty anemic UT winds- less than 50 kts. This makes me think gorilla hail HPs. Secondly, the NAM shows all of the better 0-1KM SRH pretty far north in Nebraska.

I agree with your concerns. 10km SR winds are borderline between HP and classic. 5-10kts would really help that out. The last thing I want is an HP beast, but at this point in the season with no tornadoes (past my record for latest in a season without a tornado almost 4 weeks ago), I will take anything I can get.
 
If the mode were HP, I would normally want to retarget to more stout winds aloft, even if sacrificing some other variable. But it looks like we are going to have to take what we can get, as it is looking uniform across the board pretty much at this point. Hopefully this will sharpen up between now and Friday - goodness knows there's plenty of time for change.

LLVL instability/buoyancy are going to rock, though - 0-3km CAPE is like, ridiculous. There WILL be tornadoes, just a matter of how obscurred they might be by wrapping rain bands.
 
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Hi all!
Mike, you might be onto something...unfortunately. Remember last June, when we had a really deep low parked around southwest / far west Nebraska. It sat there for days...never really moved on along east as quickly as everbody thought. The low itself became the problem, as darn near all of Nebraska got castrated with a constant deck of cloud cover and temps that were too low to work....day after day after day.
Just thought I'd throw that in, guys. But don't mind me...I always tend to mind-f myself to death prior to my chase vacation. Cheers.
 
I have seen times when points north and east become socked in and there isn't any mechanism really moving debris and clearing the road before the next event. Sometimes you'll get healthy clearing back to the southwest along the dryline, and sometimes you don't. There's just too much crud. Hopefully someone can see a good reason to alleviate this possibility this time. It would be a waste of a good system to see this happen. It happened in SW Kansas/western OK a couple years or so ago too. Storms would fire in the good environment but it was a really narrow corridor, and they wouldn't get far before running into crud. If this happens I would really be more worried about Saturday than Friday, though.
 
With Friday being 3 days away and the latest model runs indicating this will end up being a negatively tilted beast, I like everything I'm seeing as far as charts and such go. The 55 degrees or so of turning with height in the lower to mid levels has also captured my attention. Our next 10 day chasecation isn't until May 30th, however this weekend we have a family reunion to attend, but it couldn't be in a better place in my opinion (here's a hint >> EAR). We'll be leaving Friday afternoon and will be driving right through the teeth of the surface low that is progged to be sitting over NE Colorado at that time. Family is the first priority (or so they say), but you can better believe I'm packing my chase gear for this one as we'll only have to jet a few miles west once the daily reunion activities are done. The helicity looks to be off the charts on this one in SW Nebraska. If the CAPE and moisture make it anywhere just east or northeast of the surface low I can see all heck breaking loose on Friday night and will be keeping my eye on the LBF, IML, MCK areas over the next few days to see where the dryline sets up at. I just hope that area doesn't get socked in with a thick stratus deck that would kill the daytime heating. Time will tell!!

Mark
 
Someone may need to add OK to the mix on Friday as well. Looks like set-up is ripe for dryline action from Enid to Lawton. Looks like CAPE's are going to be around 3000-4000 from the Red River N-ward to KS with a pinch of 4000+ near Enid by 5-6pm. Not really looking at target area's yet, but willing to listen to more insight from others on their views on significant dryline event Friday afternoon.
 
Interesting setup for Friday in southern Nebraska, as per 00Z NAM. Forecast soundings show high CAPE and very nice wind profiles along I-80 east of North Platte. NAM puts the dryline just east of US 83 by 00Z Saturday, and one small area of precip breaks out by Friday evening around Lexington.

I'm leaving a day early for the ol' chase vacation, targeting North Platte-Lexington for Friday.
 
Mike Hollingshead said:
Yeah I agree on sw NE Friday.

Lexington

and

Holdredge

forecast soundings look nuts(minus storm relative anvil level flow).
Click to expand...


The 12Z GFS is more favorable for KS now, maybe not too far from today's threat, hust a hair north and east. The NAM I feel has everything too far north, tonight and tomorrow's convection should shift the risk, much as it did for today. My target: along I-70 near RSL-SLN. Of course part of this personal target is that I cannot make it all the way to Nebraska before dark.
 
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There is definitely alot of differences between some of the models that will need to get worked out. This will hopefully happen with tonight's 00z runs if they can get a handle on the ongoing convection. The NAM projections retreat the dryline back into western Nebraska/Kansas. Many WRF projections as well as the operational GFS both seem to be further east. Right now I'm personally leaning towards the WRF and GFS, and think the best target area will be the southern two tiers of counties near/south of Kearney, Nebraska. I have a feeling that tomorrow could be just as good as today, with some better mid level support and a bit of a stronger cap that could hold off convection.
 
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