5/23/04 FCST/ KS, OK.

Finally looks like a nice dryline setup for this coming Saturday. Today’s 12z GFS run has a nice shortwave crossing the triple point and 250mb wind speed at 100 knots. It has been rather persistent with this setup for a day or two now so perhaps it may come into play. What would make this good is it is a weekend chase. We’ll see how this pans out though.

Mickey Ptak
 
5/23/04

Well the the GFS has once again put out a somewhat consistant forecast for the 23rd(this makes the 3rd day in a row). It has shifted the sortwave and triple point just a little further north than yesterdays run. Now this is the GFS we are talking about and we have all seen it flip flop, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a nice weekend chase, be it in W. OK or KS.

Mickey Ptak
 
next week

The GFS is pointing at a potentially VERY active week, next week. The upper level and mid level jets are unseasonbly strong! The only probelm is the stubburn subtropical ridge. It could cause mid level warming and weak lapse rates, resulting in low instability. Lets hope not, if things pan out, it could be a historical week!!!
 
I love your enthusiasm (sp?). My chase is for next week and god I hope your right. I leave the DFW area very early Saturday morning heading north. Like 3am Saturday morning. I have been watching the 12z GFS for 2 weeks now in GEMPAK and I have seen those features. I sure hope it's a week to remember. Maybe I can see my first tornado in person.
 
I think Saturday and Sunday could be very big days...or big duds. With the cap being as strong as it has been in the past few days, I worry that we won't get cool enough mid-level temps in the southern plains to set off the powderkeg of parameters. As strong as this system appears in the model forecasts, it's hard to imagine that we'll get capped off....however, it's happened before. We shall see.

Gabe
 
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