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5/19/2010 NOW: TX,OK

Joined
Jul 9, 2004
Messages
84
Location
Austin, TX
It looks like the chase day is now beginning.

Triple point low situated around Roger Mills County in OK and Hemphill county in TX. Outflow boundary draped north of I-40. Warm front extending ESE thru the OKC Metro area. Some Cu starting to pop along the dryline in Wheeler and Hemphill counties in TX.
 
Have to keep this short and sweet because I really need to turn an eye away from weather for the next few hours...

My earlier forecast was Lawton, but the latest SFC and SAT have swayed me further east. Duncan, OK, has the meatiest Td in the state at the moment at 70deg. There are literally lines of prefrontal boundaries extending N/S over the state of OK:

g13.2010139.1845_smICT_vis.jpg


Best backing winds are now over the OKC metro area (bad news). It looks like I-35 would be my considerably changed virtual target (balancing the actual sfc obs, the SAT images, and the exiting region of the H5 jet delineated on WV).

The PDS watch box is no surprise. This day is at its core a synoptic scale and mesoscale textbook example of how severe weather forms.

Now for the most difficult part: will the atmosphere validate science? I'm reasonably certain it will.

Revised target: Duncan, OK.
 
Currently in Kingfisher heading west to intercept developing towers on the western OK border.

Given the potentially violent nature of the tornadoes today I want to point out that although the mean storm motion will be easterly, these things will likely be big time right movers given the wnw/ese orientation of the OFB. All chasers should keep this in mind if you decide to get close.
 
Storm in NW Oklahoma is getting better organized and appears to be riding the warm front to the SE. Currently sitting at the Philips 66 in Weatherford. About to head to Clinton and then north to interecept
 
OUN tor warns two cells, one with a spotter confirmed tornado in Kingfisher/Blaine County. 5 S Okeene, and this cell is brand new.
 
OUN tor warns two cells, one with a spotter confirmed tornado in Kingfisher/Blaine County. 5 S Okeene, and this cell is brand new.

Randy Denzer and Verne Carlson have reported a tornado on this storm prompting the tornado warning.
 
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