5/18/04 FCST: Southern/High Plains

Amos and others in Wellington - just a couple of quick observations ...

First, the sounding out of SGF: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/sgf.gif

Also, the sounding to the west in DDC: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/ddc.gif

Shear appears to be present (though weak) across southern KS.

Also - even though surrounded by heavy cloud canopy blowoff from this morning's convection to the east, your area is getting some direct sun under partly to mostly cloudy conditions. The low is becoming clearly visible on satellite ... you're in a good spot, IMO. Hopefully those outflow boundaries will react for you today - - -
 
Well saw that you guys found a good WiFi spot in Wellington so I figured we would join you. Things are looking up at the moment, clouds are breaking and frontal boundary is just to our north. Gonna wait around here for a bit and see what happens. Good luck to all!!
 
Boundary is now oriented from SW to NE along a line near ICT to Kansas City. RUC2 is breaking out precip in the next three hours in the area along the boundary north of ICT and closer to Emporia, with leading edge south of I-70.

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC_1000-...PRPTHK_03HR.gif

A mesoscale discussion has also been issued for NE-NC Kansas anticipating convection in the next few hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0744.html

Noteworthy language: WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. FORCING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD THE 19/00Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE.
 
Ok - I don't know what this means - whether a WW is about to come out or that confidence just fell through the floor, but that last MD I discussed has now disappeared off the list for some reason - - -
 
Well hopefully none of you started heading north after my last post, because there was a new MD issued that changed things considerably thanks to these outflow boundaries -

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0749.html

ICT is still the place to be, looks like. Here's a blurb -

LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
 
well we are just north of ICT now, skirting the boundary............waiting.........any minute now........


OMG they put out and dropped another MD!!
 
Well depite the models showing no cap around ICT it sure did hold pretty well. We saw a few "towers" try to develop over and over but to no avail, they could not break the cap and got sheared apart. The trip was not a total loss though, we did manage to smuggle back a case of 6 pt budlight!!!
 
Yeah, saw a few towers that did look to have broken through the cap, but only lasted 10-20 minutes before being eaten by the cap... It was rather odd, however, sitting just north of the boundary, and having northerly winds with low 70 dewpoints... Sure felt nice to have 4000+ CAPE, decent low-level shear, and even 4pm RUC breaking out precip by 0z... Alas, no precip... That being said, it was a pleasant bust, since I got to chase w/ JR Hehnly, and did get to meet Amos, Gammons, Collura, et al in Welllington... Also did a quick observation of the May 12th tornado damage south of Harper...
 
did you take any pictures of the Harper Tornado damage path? I haven't seen any to date and am intrested what it [the damage path] looked like.
 
Yeah I did... probably won't get them developed until later this weekend, however, since those pics were like number 1-5 on a 36 exposure roll... That F4 damage is quite impressive, however...
 
5/18 Report

Believe it or not I actually have a report from yesterday ... it was a nice chase (but a bust for all intents and purposes - still no tornado), starting to get frustrating - this is the longest I've gone now in five years without seeing a tornado on the ground ... managed to get my first CG tonight with a new camera ... would settle for getting a decent lightning storm at this point ... this season is starting to wear me out. Now just watch me not be able to get off work this afternoon -

In the meantime, just a few pics of a storm I followed from Ottawa, KS to Olathe last night - had a very nice shelf - probably about fifteen to twenty miles long - my wide angle lens is on its way back from Canon, and I really needed it -

http://www.stormseason.com/51804Kansas.htm

All the best to everyone out today - hopefully this won't squall out -

Mike P.
 
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