Tuesday evening's prospects certainly look interesting as an area of 3000 J/kg CAPE is progged over south central Kansas at 0Z. A bullseye of 200+ 1 km helicity is forecast over southeastern Kansas, with 400-450 m^2/s^2 3km helicity. Eta forecasts strong southerly flow at 850, drawing up some GoM moisture to bring the sfc Tds to 70F or greater in southeastern KS. Combined with low RH at 500mb, this will lead to LIs approaching -8 in the target area. The shear looks pretty good, but the weak winds at H7 are of some concern. The primary concern, however, is the strong cap forecast to be over the target area. Eta does not forecast a break on Tuesday, so convective development is highly questionable. That having been said, if the cap does break, or even weaken, sufficient energy exists to create explosive development with the potential for some great severe storms.
Ben