5/18/04 FCST: Southern/High Plains

[Austin Ivey]

I'm a bit less concerned about moisture availablity after viewing some METARS this morning. It turns out the 00z ETA from yesterday actually underestimated the moisture in OK/KS this morning. Forecast for OKC DP was 65 but the ob at 8am was 69.

ALSO the ICT 8am DP of 67 surpasses the 00z ETA forecast of 63. This is a good thing of course.


Perhaps MOST interesting is how the ETA completely missed the frontal boundary location this morning. Current ob out of DDC is 58/58 with fog and NE winds. ETA had a forecast of 62/62 with a SE wind. Hmm....


I would opine on the CAP but I can't access the 12z soundings yet.

 

[Jason Montano]

I am kinda concerned with the winds now. Yesterday it looked GREAT, now not so great. The directional shear is not nearly what it was looking to be yesterday and the area of greatest instability shifted from W. KS to E.KS. I'm not sure if I am going to go today, gonna have to wait for a while.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Anyone know why the 12z soundings are not available except for OUN? DDC, AMA and many others just show blank Skew-Ts. I thought they all launched and loaded data at the same time.

See:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_700.gif

 

[Jason Montano]

I know I am playing hot cold right now but wow, those CAPE values on the 12z RUC look to be 4000 j/kg in SE KS. The winds though, not as impressive as yesterday look to be backing to the SE a bit at the SFC.

EDIT: CAPE values of 4500 j/kg in SE KS

 

[Tony Laubach]

Trying to decide how I want to play today. If I chase Colorado, I'll lose out on tomorrow's action in Iowa. If I hang around here and chill, I can drive into Lincoln, NE and get ready for tomorrow's action.

I woke up in WaKenney in a cool drizzle which quickly shot my nearby hopes to crap. I just arrived in Hays and am sitting at the library gathering info on today and tomorrow to decide on how to play things out.

Henceforth, I'll be back with my decision in a bit! 8)

 

[Jason Montano]

I have to go to class at 1030 but I'm thinking of leaving early, around 1200 and heading to SE KS, not sure what town but in that area. If the CAPE values hold true through the next couple RUC runs I dont think I can pass it up.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

RUC is forecasting a pretty Dynamo day near ICT... Still don't know what to do with the fact that 6z ETA and current RUC are 150-200 miles off in regards to instability axis location... still like the ~5000 CAPE and 200-300 helicity near ICT, AND <25 CINH... So, it looks good from here... still many uncertainties, but really seems like a can't miss type of situation given the RUC forecasts... Heading up to ICT soon and will decide from there..

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Unfortunately the Unidata circuit missed most of the soundings this morning. I'm a little less worried about moisture this morning looking at the 12Z Norman sounding, with 14 g/kg in the boundary layer. This probably snuck up in a ribbon east of FWD and west of SHV. There should be good pooling of mid-upper 60s dewpoints near the boundary intersection in the Medicine Lodge area this afternoon.

The RUC is showing its usual bias of over-mixing ahead of the dryline. I'll put down money that the Enid/Watonga area will NOT be 100/60 this afternoon. The eta is likely to be handling the thermodynamics much better, so I think the instability hot spot will be near the triple point around Medicine Lodge.

It will still be really tough to get through the capping inversion today, with subsidence behind the departing shortwave trough and rising heights at mid-levels. Will make a final decision in about 3 hours.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Really leaning towards the DCVZ today.. last time the DCVZ was in play, I blew 7 tornadoes on a hailstorm south of Cheyenne.. in theory, I could make it to Iowa in time for tomorrow on a marathon chase trip getting out. Right now, my preliminary target should I choose to head west would be around the Deer Trail area, just off I-70 between Limon and Denver. I believe that things too far east from Denver will not be good for storms, so I imagine storms will form right up against the front range, move out into the Eastern Plains; go tornatic, then move into unfavorable air to their east and fizzle. Still debating, but am definately leaning that direction.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Trigger pulled; going to shoot west and play the DCVZ! With clouds starting to clear, the sun will quickly heat things up in the area. I am going to target a place between Limon, Denver, and Colorado Springs along either I-70, US-24, or CO-86. My gut instinct tells me this is the right choice for the day. Weird thing, this weather stuff.. here I am in Kansas targeting the Denver-area! :lol:

 

[Austin Ivey]

I'm with you on todays target in E. CO Tony. I don't have much experience with or knowledge of the DCVZ tho I played it a few times when living in Boulder in '02. Seems to me as soon as the stratus burns off coupled with dews in the 50s at 5000 feet and with a DCVZ going; could be a good day. BOU AFD from this AM had a definite optimistic tone to it:

"ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL BE BROKEN LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND DENVER WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...RICHARDSON NUMBERS IN THE TEENS AND HELICITIES INCREASING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2 AS YOU GO EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. SO A GOOD SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH ANYTHING POSSIBLE...BUT MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ALSO TORNADOES ON THE DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY OR ON
STORMS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING."

My crew is getting into position for tomorrow so they will not be making the trek to E. CO. Good luck to everyone today!

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Looks like a "go" for me with an initial target of Wellington, KS. The MCS has left an outflow boundary extending from just west of ICT to south of ICT to just north of Ark. City and Coffeyville. To the north of the outflow, it's socked in right now, but moisture is strongly pooling and surface dewpoints are near 70. Meanwhile, the front is advancing in from the northwest and intersects the outflow boundary just west of ICT. If the outflow boundary can cook, and a storm can initiate along the front-outflow intersection, it would move eastward along the remnant outflow boundary, where low-layer and deep-layer shear values are more than sufficient for supercells and a few tornadoes. The odds of this happening are probably ~40% or less, but the payoff would be potentially quite big if something does manage to go.

The DCVZ target also looks potentially good as well, but I suspect the cap will hold anything off between the eastern CO storms and and south-central KS storms. Good luck to anyone else venturing out!

 

[JR Hehnly]

We're (Myself, Jeff Snyder, and Gabe Garfield) sitting in Wellington at this time... Thanks for the confidence at this time, Kevin... Oh yes, also thanks to MotorLodge Inn in Wellington for supplying the Wifi

Continue to like the outflow boundary up here, and latest RUC guidance does forecast 4000-5000 CAPE just east of ICT by afternoon. We are experiencing some light drizzle/rain right now here in Wellington, though ICT radar is not showing anything. We'll likely sit pretty close to where we are, if not move a little farther north towards ICT. 70 Tds with easterly winds look mighty nice...

 

[Tony Laubach]

Looks like the DCVZ will set up from Northern Elbert County and go Northwestward over the north and east areas of the Denver Metro area and into Boulder County. This according to the HazWX Outlook issued by BOU. I'm going to adjust slightly north and remain close to I-70 for quick access to N/S roads. Am currently in Colby, KS right now, should be in Limon in a couple hours and in position an hour or so after that!

Good luck to everyone.. looks like a crap shoot today as to who goes where and gets what; but its tomorrow that most are looking ahead to!

Ciao!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

We're also in Wellington: myself, Weathervine, Scott Eubanks, Garry Wellman and others are waiting at the Speedy Food and Fuel. Liking the clearning skies, jungle-style humidity, and surface low deepening to our west. Perhaps an adjustment east or northeast will be necessary later. Hoping the LLJ picks up so we can duplicate the conditions of the last two days, with storms developing and moving into the bettwer shear values.