5/14/07 FCST: NE / IA / MN / WI

[Craig Maire II]

Looks like a strong cold front will be plowing through portions of Minnesota and Iowa on Monday bringing the possibility of some severe weather! Moderate instability and wind shear should be in place for supercells with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds before a transition over to mainly damaging winds as the storms congeal into a squal line over night.

 

[Andrew Herron]

I noticed this too as the models are showing that it will hit MI on Tuesday. Might we be looking at a large derecho like in '98?

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Since this isnt getting too much attention laltey thought I would give my 2 cents. First off I think moisture is going to be somewhat limited. As of now we have cool dry conditions and may get 1 day to recoop before the front moves through probably late monday. I think here in N. IL storm coverage wont be much. The best shot will be to our north and west. I dont expect much here but hope I am wrong. Things are getting really dry again in N.IL and S. WI..not a good May and after this next week looks dry too..hope this doesnt get like 2005 ! Warm and humid air is having a tough time getting into the area due to high pressures parking over SE Canada and then when we do get a flow it isnt long enough before another front comes through. I hope June and July can change this. If something does pop I like chasing off I-90 in S and west WI.

 

[Travis Carlson]

I'm not too excited about the prospects of a decent setup for severe wx Monday at the moment. Moisture is going to be rather limited it appears and that is a key ingredient for thunderstorms and especially severe wx. I don't want to agree about how this year is looking like May 2005 around the midwest in terms of severe wx, but it appears this is going to be a disappointing May so I'll have to agree. The soils are getting dry rather quick with a lack of rainfall over the past few weeks and above normal temps. Also with a lack of evapotranspiration it's going to be a problem around these parts with any storm system at the moment to get enough moisture needed. However, we'll still watch this approaching frontal passage. CAPE was around 600J/kg for northern, IL upon last check and a decent capped environment as well. Also MN is a hard area to chase with lots of trees and WI has terrible terrain, so you'll have to hope any severe wx that forms is in IA. Hopefully, something will change tomorrow to get me more excited about this, but as for now it appears a marginal severe theat at this moment and not worth the increasing price of gas to chase this one.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Also MN is a hard area to chase with lots of trees and WI has terrible terrain, so you'll have to hope any severe wx that forms is in IA.

I was pleasantly surprised with southern MN when I was chasing up there on March 21. South and just north of I-90 has quite good terrain, and even fairly close to the river (although there are towering bluffs right on the river). South Madison also has very chaseable terrain in Wisconsin.

GFS and WRF have dewpoints in the 60's, but with surface temps forecasted to soar into the 80's, your LCLs are going to be rather high. And given the rather unidirectional shear, parallel to the boundary, you might get a training line out of this too. Sig tor's are over 1 in the area, and with decent cape and 30+ knots of 6km shear you could get some supercell activity before it goes linear. A good local chase if you are in the area I think.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Definitely not a great threat and I will again be sticking close to home for this one and probably getting yet another bust up here. As Skip mentioned LCL's are going to be pretty high and could be even higher as Im not all that confident in dews up here right now. GFS and NAM are both looking completely different for a target area but right now it appears supercell possibility isnt all that phenomenal anyway. As I said I will just stay relatively close to home and hope that something fires closer to here down the CF without getting all multicellular.

 

[rdale]

I noticed this too as the models are showing that it will hit MI on Tuesday. Might we be looking at a large derecho like in '98?

I don't see anything that matches Tuesday (remember we're 60+ hours away so in the end it's still a model outlook) with '98... What are you noticing that makes for a comparison?

 

[J West]

Also MN is a hard area to chase with lots of trees and WI has terrible terrain, so you'll have to hope any severe wx that forms is in IA. Hopefully, something will change tomorrow to get me more excited about this, but as for now it appears a marginal severe theat at this moment and not worth the increasing price of gas to chase this one.

I can't speak to Northern MN due to my limited exposure up there but once you get west of 'Ol Miss and away from the bluffs, southern MN is flat as a pancake and easy to chase with a decent grid of county roads. Same goes with Southern WI east of the river. Once you get north of a Oshkosh-Baraboo-LaCrosse line it starts to get into dense foresty in places that makes a chase difficult to possibly suicidal (depending on exact location).

The last two years, I've been finding myself leaving the Milwaukee metro area and chasing south into flatlands of Illinois and/or west into Iowa.

As for the current situation, nothing sticks out here. The moisture return won't happen until late Monday and the midwest version of a plains nuclear cap will be in place so boundary or not, this is looking like a non-event north of the cheddar curtain.

 

[Craig Maire II]

5/14/07 FCST: MN / IA

With dewpoints in the upper 50's to lower 60's, MU Capes at or around 2000jkg and effective shear between 50 and 60 knots, plus south central MN not being that far away esp. considering many of the other chases I have been on this year, I will keep a close eye on this upcomming "event" and will probably be chasing in south central MN Monday afternoon. I've seen plenty of tornados this year and would now like to see more large hail

 

[David Toner]

Considering this is the "only game in town" thinking if the possibility is there I will have to venture up into northern Iowa. Not a great setup but with no other options.... I'll wait and see what the models and data say tommorow.

 

[David Wolfson]

Currently in Pierre, SD. As of now plan to saddle up in the morning and play the front down in southern NE, McCook to Hastings. Playing MN just seems like too much of a front race and an extra donation to Big Oil. This is chicken scratch chasing at its finest for enough convergence combined with enough upper winds for decent storms -- preferably a few of which are discreet. Exact target TBD tomorrow after 12Z runs and on the road, but Alma, NE, is a good first guess.

 

[stephanieschweitzer]

I was pleasantly surprised with southern MN when I was chasing up there on March 21. South and just north of I-90 has quite good terrain, and even fairly close to the river (although there are towering bluffs right on the river). South Madison also has very chaseable terrain in Wisconsin.

I'd have to agree with you,Skip. I currently reside in SC MN and we have incredibly flat terrain. From previous experience Southern MN is primarily flat all across(except for a few spots along the Minnesota River) until about 15 miles west of the Mississippi. Also, as a born WI native, I have to vouch for their terrain. Except for the northern sections(north of US HWY 10) and areas right along the Wisconsin and Mississippi Rivers the terrain is quite flat. Some rolling hills and occasional wooding but still very much chaseable.

 

[Darren Addy]

Add NE to subject line?

I'm starting to think that there may be a window of opportunity for some discrete storms in Nebraska before things go MCS this evening. I'm quite the newbie at this, so feel free to jump in with any corrections. KGID forecast discussions this morning expect initiation north of York, NE to Beaver City, NE. However, if this is just a bit off and things can initiate to the west about 40 miles, there is a very nice convergence of expected 1500+ CAPE and 350+ 0-3Km helicity that looks to be in the Grand Island/Aurora to Columbus area. If the cap breaks in that area, or anything forms W/SW and moves into that environment there could be some very nice convective fireworks.

If storms move E/NE as expected, that area also has good road options: Highway 30 which orients in that direction between Grand Island and Columbus. Grand Island (intersection of HWY 30 and HWY 281) would be my suggested starting point, giving you good road options in almost any direction (and you are 9 minutes north of I80 in case you need rapid E-W movement).

Sounds like some areas can expect a LOT of precip out of this once it goes MCS tonight in southern Nebraska.

EDIT (that should go in a NOW thread): I'm just so dang happy that my suggested target is the first severe-warned storm of the day in Nebraska. I'm looking out my office window and seeing two big anvils, one SE of Kearney and the severe warned storm E/NE of Kearney (7 miles SW of Wood River, NE).

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Not expecting much today, but that doesn't matter, since I just miss the good stuff anyway. I can start to make out some crappy cu north of town here now. One can see them on satellite now as well, also a small area forming out west, sw of Norfolk by the looks of it(under the cirrus there). CIN is eroding quickly now per mesoanalysis graphic. Front is firming up quickly now as well:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s6/s6_loops/mcon/

I'd hope we'd be able to get something going by 4 at this rate, or at least 5. I'd sort of like to shoot whatever happens from a big hill north of here, Murray Hill in western IA. If the front doesn't slow down this just ain't going to happen. It'd also be a sweet spot to shoot lightning from, but that's not happening today either as the front will be well south by then/dark.

With sw flow in the mid-levels only 25 knots over the boundary, and sw sfc winds, I'd say supercells are out of the question around here today. So here's to hoping for some good rfd dirt action or small hail...and lightning after dark.