Mike Peregrine
EF5
Will go ahead and begin the now thread with the issuance of the first SVR watch of the day in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
5/12/04 NOW: OK, KS, CO, NE, MN, WI
- Thread starter Mike Peregrine
- Start date
Amos Magliocco
EF5
in Pratt
Scott Eubanks, Tony Laubach, and I are sitting at the Kwik Stop on the west side of Pratt, KS, waiting for the surface low to shape up and clarify these features. Front has begun moving north. Wind shift line is visible on DDC loop.Mike Peregrine
EF5
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...KS NWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 122023Z - 122230Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.Mike Peregrine
EF5
Satellite Obs:
Frontal boundary becoming well defined on satellite, with CU line extending from NE Kansas (Hiawatha area) to the southwest through Salina and Hutchison areas. This zone has experienced sufficient clearing throughout the afternoon ahead of the front, where skies have remained under partial cirrus and cumulus - primarily in area of interest in south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Extreme eastern Kansas, western Missouri and northwest Oklahoma remain under stratiform deck ... enjoy the fireworks. They're on the way - - -
Jason Montano
EF4
Well Lance and I are sitting at a Best Western in Alva waiting for initiation to occur. Looking at the latest data it looks not too bad. We have great CAPE values, great LI and are near where convection should initiate around the trip pt. Now all we need is some good speed shear, though from the SPC discussion it sounds like that is getting better via mid level jet from TX panhandle. Looks as though it could be a good day but the window of opportunity seems small considering best conditions should evolve shortly before dark. We will see....John Sickels
EF2
Sun breaking out here in Lawrence, KS. Temp on my backyard thermometer went from 72 to 76 in about 15 minutes.
Jason Montano
EF4
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
The watch is in effect from 4pm to 10pm CDT.
The wording goes on to say "Tornadoes are expected" I sure do like that wording.Mike Peregrine
EF5
You can even make out the boundary now on the watch box radar:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0193.html
Jason Montano
EF4
It is currently 88/70 here in Alva with a heat index of 93 and a SE wind around 15 kts. Jason Montano and I are still anxiously watching the CU develop out to our west to determine our course of attack. ATTM, it appears that the triple point is just to our WNW, so we are going to stick here until initiation and most likely stick with the southern most storms.
EDIT: This is Lance Maxwell speaking BTW. 8)
Jason Montano
EF4
Still here in Alva and see 4 towers going up to our west, one looks to have a very nice updraft and is beginning to bubble out. We are waiting for the next Sattelite update and may head out after it. Good Luck to All!!Mike Peregrine
EF5
There is additional initiation two counties north of ICT along the boundary ... my suggestion for anyone chasing in that area, though, would probably be to hold off for a bit - there may be better stuff to the SW - plus these could haul out of the best wind environment fairly quickly -
The good news - wave bye bye to the cap -Mike Peregrine
EF5
The mesoscale discussion now extends all the way up the pike (literally - the KS turnpike) ... to NE Kansas ... which is cool ... I'm saddling up to chase and will be out of the cyber chase in 15 ... nice doing business with you ... keep the faith out there -Larry J. Kosch
Any Chasers in Wisconsin????
Was wondering if there's anybody, somebody chasing the storms in Wisconsin today?
One look at the Target Chase Area would make you think everybody has headed down to Kansas and Oklahoma today to do some storm chasing. I know, I know there's a tornado watch set up for KS and OK. But in looking at the storms on the radars for Wisconsin/Iowa/Indiana, I kinda wonder why everybody was headed south today. (Later - Now I know why!!)
Update: Comments about the Target Area board was deleted by personal request . Sorry.
I had to go to work at 6 a.m. this morning so I based my decision on what I had at that time. I've read about how the low wind shear has made the cold front/dryline situation weaker than normal. And how most of the warm front situation, like in MN and WI today, would produce a ton of severe thunderstorms.
I see from the GOES-10 visible satellite shot of the Midwest that clouds are starting to go up in Southern KS. However these thunderstorms in MN and WI have been going on all afternoon and have produced numerous thunderstorm warnings. But so far, no reports or sightings of tornadoes yet in WI at this late afternoon hour.
Good luck to those chasers still waiting in the heartlands of KS and OK.
You will hit the jackpot with a "full house" of storms and tornadoes. 8)
Robert Dewey
EF5
Nobody pays attention to us northerners!
lol...
Anyway, those storms are looking pretty good on the KARX radar loop, actually looks like some of the storms are mini supercells, though they are probably only producing hail/wind...
To me, it wouldn't really matter if I catch a tornado or not...Its the thrill of being out in the warm/humid air, and the storm structure more than anything...The tornado is just the icing on the cake! What I don't really care for, are situations where you can't see storm structure (heavy haze/low clouds)...
RobertI don't know.... looks like some nice cells have gone up around Medicine Lodge
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?ICT
Jason / Lance,
Looks like you were in the right spot. Let us know how it was!Similar threads
