Scott Eubanks, Tony Laubach, and I are sitting at the Kwik Stop on the west side of Pratt, KS, waiting for the surface low to shape up and clarify these features. Front has begun moving north. Wind shift line is visible on DDC loop.
Frontal boundary becoming well defined on satellite, with CU line extending from NE Kansas (Hiawatha area) to the southwest through Salina and Hutchison areas. This zone has experienced sufficient clearing throughout the afternoon ahead of the front, where skies have remained under partial cirrus and cumulus - primarily in area of interest in south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Extreme eastern Kansas, western Missouri and northwest Oklahoma remain under stratiform deck ... enjoy the fireworks. They're on the way - - -
Well Lance and I are sitting at a Best Western in Alva waiting for initiation to occur. Looking at the latest data it looks not too bad. We have great CAPE values, great LI and are near where convection should initiate around the trip pt. Now all we need is some good speed shear, though from the SPC discussion it sounds like that is getting better via mid level jet from TX panhandle. Looks as though it could be a good day but the window of opportunity seems small considering best conditions should evolve shortly before dark. We will see....
It is currently 88/70 here in Alva with a heat index of 93 and a SE wind around 15 kts. Jason Montano and I are still anxiously watching the CU develop out to our west to determine our course of attack. ATTM, it appears that the triple point is just to our WNW, so we are going to stick here until initiation and most likely stick with the southern most storms.
Still here in Alva and see 4 towers going up to our west, one looks to have a very nice updraft and is beginning to bubble out. We are waiting for the next Sattelite update and may head out after it. Good Luck to All!!
There is additional initiation two counties north of ICT along the boundary ... my suggestion for anyone chasing in that area, though, would probably be to hold off for a bit - there may be better stuff to the SW - plus these could haul out of the best wind environment fairly quickly -
The mesoscale discussion now extends all the way up the pike (literally - the KS turnpike) ... to NE Kansas ... which is cool ... I'm saddling up to chase and will be out of the cyber chase in 15 ... nice doing business with you ... keep the faith out there -
Was wondering if there's anybody, somebody chasing the storms in Wisconsin today?
One look at the Target Chase Area would make you think everybody has headed down to Kansas and Oklahoma today to do some storm chasing. I know, I know there's a tornado watch set up for KS and OK. But in looking at the storms on the radars for Wisconsin/Iowa/Indiana, I kinda wonder why everybody was headed south today. (Later - Now I know why!!)
Update: Comments about the Target Area board was deleted by personal request . Sorry.
I had to go to work at 6 a.m. this morning so I based my decision on what I had at that time. I've read about how the low wind shear has made the cold front/dryline situation weaker than normal. And how most of the warm front situation, like in MN and WI today, would produce a ton of severe thunderstorms.
I see from the GOES-10 visible satellite shot of the Midwest that clouds are starting to go up in Southern KS. However these thunderstorms in MN and WI have been going on all afternoon and have produced numerous thunderstorm warnings. But so far, no reports or sightings of tornadoes yet in WI at this late afternoon hour.
Good luck to those chasers still waiting in the heartlands of KS and OK.
You will hit the jackpot with a "full house" of storms and tornadoes. 8)
Anyway, those storms are looking pretty good on the KARX radar loop, actually looks like some of the storms are mini supercells, though they are probably only producing hail/wind...
To me, it wouldn't really matter if I catch a tornado or not...Its the thrill of being out in the warm/humid air, and the storm structure more than anything...The tornado is just the icing on the cake! What I don't really care for, are situations where you can't see storm structure (heavy haze/low clouds)...
My partners Bill Turner and Jason Boggs are south of Medicine lodge and are reporting a rotating wall clous and possible tornado. the northern storm has split and both of those cells have tornado warnings also. looms like a string of pearls forming in SC Kansas :shock:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
656 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHERN BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
* UNTIL 745 PM CDT
* AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CULLISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM CAPABLE OF A TORNADO WAS 5 MILES NORTH OF LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF COATS AROUND 705 PM CDT
CULLISON AROUND 710 PM CDT
PRATT AROUND 725 PM CDT
IUKA AROUND 740 PM CDT
My partner Bill Turner just called back. At this time he and a number of other chasers (Tim Marshall and others) are filming a cone tornado 10 miles south of Medicine Lodge Kansas looking NE about 2 miles. :shock:
You would almost think these supercells were cloning each other!! :shock: What's even stranger is that one of the cells is actually passing tops between each other. :shock: :shock: First there was one, now two, now four cells on the scope.
Hope you chasers down there are getting some some pics and vids!!! 8)
Very interesting: Load the SPC mesoscale analysis page, then run a loop of the deep moisture convergence. Watch how the moisture pools and become more centered near the areas with the tornadic storms in southern Kansas. Unfortunately, I can't save it as an animation. It should still look good for the next couple of hours.
I'm nowcasting for Dave Lewison and Chris Kridler, and a few minutes ago, Dave reported that a tornado passed through the residential portion of Attica, KS in Harper County. He sounded quite concerned for the well-being of the residents and said there was considerable damage. As he requested, I passed along the report to the Harper County sheriff's office.
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