Mikey Gribble
EF5
There is going to be a whole lot of nothing on the 9th. This should be for the 10th.
Right now Monday looks like a likely chase day, Tuesday is a maybe and Wednesday is another likely chase day. What happens after that is tought to tell.
The real positive with this next setup is that we should already have high quality moisture in place over the gulf. As long as we get advection started early, which it looks like we will, then we should have good quality moisture in place for this event.
I already wrote about this on my blog this morning so I'll just post that. I have pictures on my blog too so you can ignore the part in my post where I talk about the pictures. Here is what I wrote on my blog...
Above is the 500mb charts for next Monday at 7pm from the ECMWF (top picture) and GFS (bottom picture). You may not be able to tell by looking at those pictures because the two models have timing differences, but they are both actually very similiar with how they handle the evolution of the upper air pattern for early next week. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours slower than the GFS, which has been it’s tendency all year (been 24 hours behind with the timing for most setups this year). If you back the GFS up 18 hours though the 500mb charts are basically identical, which lends a higher degree of confidence to the idea that we will be chasing the beginning of next week.
The models have all been off over the past week on something so there isn’t any favored solution right now. The NAM and ECMWF wanted to amplify the trough that is coming through on Thursday of this week, while the GFS handled it properly and showed a low amplitude disturbance. Then for next week the GFS was showing one single larger trough and the ECMWF was showing two smaller amplitude waves with different timing. Now the GFS has moved in line with the ECMWF with how the pattern evolves, but the two models still disagree on the timing. So basically what we know right now is there will probably be two short waves coming through early next week. Monday or Tuesday will probably be the first chase day with one or two chase days following that (Tuesday maybe a chase and Wednesday more likely a chase day).
I really wish the GFS would have won out with the larger/stronger trough for the beginning of next week. Any time you get away from a typical setup it tends to bust more often and the two wave solution is a little less typical.
It is pretty pointless to look into details this far out, but the GFS is currently showing southerly low level winds setting up across the southern plains as early as Saturday, which should be very favorable for good moisture advection. For some reason the GFS shows a giant dry wedge appearing in central Texas at 12Z Monday. I don’t know what in the hell that’s all about, but it still has mid 60 dewpoints along the dryline by Monday afternoon. Mid 60’s is certainly reasonable given the fact that there is good moisture over the gulf.
Even though we aren’t considering details this far out, the GFS is showing fairly strong wind fields in the low and mid levels on Monday. The 850mb winds are veering, which I never like, but that doesn’t matter this far out. It is also showing 850mb winds >50kts. You know how that works though. It was also showing that for last weeks setup and then it dropped wind speeds by 20kts on the day before the chase.
Anyway, I will look at this mornings runs when they come out and update then. At this point though it does appear more likely that we will be chasing at least two days at the beginning of next week. I will update later this morning.
Right now Monday looks like a likely chase day, Tuesday is a maybe and Wednesday is another likely chase day. What happens after that is tought to tell.
The real positive with this next setup is that we should already have high quality moisture in place over the gulf. As long as we get advection started early, which it looks like we will, then we should have good quality moisture in place for this event.
I already wrote about this on my blog this morning so I'll just post that. I have pictures on my blog too so you can ignore the part in my post where I talk about the pictures. Here is what I wrote on my blog...
Above is the 500mb charts for next Monday at 7pm from the ECMWF (top picture) and GFS (bottom picture). You may not be able to tell by looking at those pictures because the two models have timing differences, but they are both actually very similiar with how they handle the evolution of the upper air pattern for early next week. The ECMWF is about 12-24 hours slower than the GFS, which has been it’s tendency all year (been 24 hours behind with the timing for most setups this year). If you back the GFS up 18 hours though the 500mb charts are basically identical, which lends a higher degree of confidence to the idea that we will be chasing the beginning of next week.
The models have all been off over the past week on something so there isn’t any favored solution right now. The NAM and ECMWF wanted to amplify the trough that is coming through on Thursday of this week, while the GFS handled it properly and showed a low amplitude disturbance. Then for next week the GFS was showing one single larger trough and the ECMWF was showing two smaller amplitude waves with different timing. Now the GFS has moved in line with the ECMWF with how the pattern evolves, but the two models still disagree on the timing. So basically what we know right now is there will probably be two short waves coming through early next week. Monday or Tuesday will probably be the first chase day with one or two chase days following that (Tuesday maybe a chase and Wednesday more likely a chase day).
I really wish the GFS would have won out with the larger/stronger trough for the beginning of next week. Any time you get away from a typical setup it tends to bust more often and the two wave solution is a little less typical.
It is pretty pointless to look into details this far out, but the GFS is currently showing southerly low level winds setting up across the southern plains as early as Saturday, which should be very favorable for good moisture advection. For some reason the GFS shows a giant dry wedge appearing in central Texas at 12Z Monday. I don’t know what in the hell that’s all about, but it still has mid 60 dewpoints along the dryline by Monday afternoon. Mid 60’s is certainly reasonable given the fact that there is good moisture over the gulf.
Even though we aren’t considering details this far out, the GFS is showing fairly strong wind fields in the low and mid levels on Monday. The 850mb winds are veering, which I never like, but that doesn’t matter this far out. It is also showing 850mb winds >50kts. You know how that works though. It was also showing that for last weeks setup and then it dropped wind speeds by 20kts on the day before the chase.
Anyway, I will look at this mornings runs when they come out and update then. At this point though it does appear more likely that we will be chasing at least two days at the beginning of next week. I will update later this morning.
